By now the world should have strapped-up to witness a completely unpredictable and a more dictatorial American foreign policy, dictated by the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump.
Coming soon after the preposterous Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Trump who had promised to get the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended with-in a day of him assuming the American presidency, last week unveiled a controversial new Peace Plan to get the three-years old war ended, denying Ukraine any seat at the negotiating table.
After his telephonic call with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday last, he also said that he could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin “very soon” as officials from the countries prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia for talks on ending the war in Ukraine.
As expected, Ukraine immediately rejected these talks, apparently at which no Ukrainian negotiator would be present. Neither Ukrainian nor European officials are participating in the talks in Riyadh, though the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday stressed that Ukraine and Europe would both have to be involved in any “real negotiations” that result from the meeting.
In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press programme, which aired on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would “never accept” any agreement reached without his country’s involvement. “This is the war in Ukraine, against us, and it’s our human losses,” Zelenskyy had said earlier, while attending the Munich Security Conference on Friday.
Coming soon after the preposterous Gaza Ceasefire Plan, Trump who had promised to get the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended with-in a day of him assuming the American presidency, last week unveiled a controversial new Peace Plan to get the three-years old war ended, denying Ukraine any seat at the negotiating table
Zelenskyy has called for the creation of a unified European army, arguing that the continent must strengthen its own military capabilities considering the ever-changing US foreign policy, bulldozing, and destroying all set norms and precedents.
Similarly, addressing the Munich conference on Saturday, European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas drew parallels between the Trump administration’s approach and the failure of appeasement in the run-up to World War II.
The choice by the Trump administration of Saudi Arabia as the location for key talks on Ukraine underscores how far the Kingdom has come diplomatically from the near pariah state it became after the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
The shadow that cast over the country and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in particular, appears to have been lifted by the new Trump administration apparently to influence MbS to invest $ One Trillion in the US economy.
Apparently, the whole plan seems to overshadow the European partners of the US, who had at America’s behest upped their monetary and military support to Ukraine. In addition, the whole mechanism seems to undermine the set diplomatic processes and will be led by one man and his cronies only.
As expected, Ukraine immediately rejected these talks, apparently at which no Ukrainian negotiator would be present. Neither Ukrainian nor European officials are participating in the talks in Riyadh
Even the Republican lawmakers are grappling with an effective response to President Trump’s seeming readiness to bend to Russia’s demands on Ukraine’s future.
Their reactions – which range from outright alarm to careful soft-pedalling – signal the challenges GOP policymakers face as they try to make sense of the administration’s actions and justify them to European allies.
Moreover, the details of the proposed plan have been leaked by Trump’s own advisors. It involves the return of all territory seized illegally by Russia and security guarantees backed by the US, preferably through NATO.
Meanwhile, the new American defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, told his Nato counterparts that the US no longer saw European security as its main priority. He added that while Ukraine could expect its own security guarantees, these would be provided by Europeans.
Marina Hyde writing for The Guardian opines that Putin is no doubt delighted to be treated with respect by Trump. But he is only being offered a draw when he still wants a victory. The US is proposing an early ceasefire largely based on the current line of contact between the two sets of forces, to be followed by negotiations on a longer-term peace settlement.
To be sure, this would allow him to hold a large chunk of Ukrainian land, but there would also be the prospect of Ukraine reconstituting its forces with western support to return to the fight later. Russia would need to subsidise and police occupied territory, much of which has been ruined by a series of destructive battles, and defend a long border, Marina commented further.
In one stroke Trump has relegated the US’ European allies with complete disdain and Europe has reacted with barely concealed dismay. The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas reaffirmed her support for Ukraine, noting that the Europeans were “looking forward to discussing the way ahead together with our American allies.”
The choice by the Trump administration of Saudi Arabia as the location for key talks on Ukraine underscores how far the Kingdom has come diplomatically from the near pariah state it became after the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018
Apparently, Putin would relish a summit with Trump, preferably in Moscow, perhaps around the time of the 80th anniversary of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in early May. He has long sought a direct engagement with Washington that would effectively sideline Europe and, crucially, Ukraine.
A summit would allow him to reassert Russia’s place as a global power on par with the US. It would be, in Putin’s mind, a return to the kind of recognition Russia enjoyed in 1945, when Josef Stalin parleyed with Franklin D Roosevelt in Yalta about the fate of nations and the shape of Europe.
Ann Kiernan writing for the Financial Times opines that Putin has demanded that a peace settlement that allows him to achieve his war aims of the subjugation of Ukraine be agreed prior to any ceasefire. His starting position is even more ambitious, as confirmed in his call with Trump. He wants to deal with what he considers the “root causes” of the situation – the development of a European security order unfavourable to Russia since the end of the cold war, Ann wrote further.
Moreover, the details of the proposed plan have been leaked by Trump’s own advisors. It involves the return of all territory seized illegally by Russia and security guarantees backed by the US, preferably through NATO
Finally, what emerges from this new seemingly preposterous Peace Plan suggests that Trump is least interested in the views and security of his European allies, whom he could chuck at any given moment, further he is also not enamoured about NATO and its expansion.
These two pointers are enough to predict a tumble ride of the US foreign policy in the coming months and years.
-The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on international and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
