New Delhi: Former Foreign Secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale thinks a mutually acceptable resolution in eastern Ladakh — and lessons learnt from it by both sides– may make it ‘possible and feasible’ for the highest leaderships on both sides to reset the somewhat derailed bilateral relationship between the two Asian giants.
“Modi and Xi have a good measure of each other and share mutual respect. They should be able to talk about the identity misperceptions and possible ways of reconciling their respective visions,” writes Gokhale in a detailed paper entitled “The Road From Galwan: The Future of India-China Relations” published by Carnegie India, where he is now a non-resident Senior Fellow.
Gokhale, like External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, is an old China hand, both having served as India’s ambassador to Beijing before they rose to become foreign secretaries.
“A key consideration could be whether China can afford to have an antagonistic India on its border as it is moving to the centre of the world stage and whether India can afford to close a door (or two, as Russia is also involved) to multi-alignment that has served it well.
A frank exchange followed by broad understandings might lead to a road map that could trigger a top-down review of the relationship.
“If the two leaders are able to achieve this, there are political-level personalities on both sides with adequate experience, including the respective national security advisers (or equivalent) and foreign ministers, who can translate the broad understandings into policy. This might be the only way of building understanding and, over time, trust,” Gokhale says in his 15,000-words paper.
The former Indian foreign secretary thinks it might also help to “deal with specific questions at the functional levels, where both sides have different systems of decision making and styles of negotiation, so that the two sides do more than simply speak past each other”.
“The prospects of forward movement will depend on the lessons that China and India draw from the Ladakh crisis. If Chinese strategic experts believe that India-China relations hold no great prospects in the current international scenario and that India is already a quasi-ally of the United States, then it may be difficult to manage the bilateral differences and a period of more violent confrontation may arrive,” Gokhale warns in his paper.
“If Indian strategic experts believe that Beijing is intent on bullying or humiliating India because China’s superiority in comprehensive national power allows it to permanently reset the frontier or to permanently damage India’s global or regional profile or standing, then too, the situation might become confrontational,” he qualifies immediately.
Gokhale says that if the Chinese strategic community re-evaluates its approach to India, and if China accepts that its India policy has not fully factored in the new realities about India and its importance in the region for facilitating or hindering China’s rise, then a new basis could form for a relationship.
“The two countries are standing at a crossroads, and this might be the final chance to take the path to co-existence of cooperation and competition. If not, a new phase of antagonistic rivalry may be starting, with the countries sliding into possible confrontation as the strategic periphery of China collides with the strategic backyard of India in the Indian Ocean Region,” Gokhale says rather prophetically.
