Tel Aviv: Western intelligence sources say that Russia’s unofficial withdrawal from the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) will enable Moscow to export some of its long range ballistic missiles to countries that don’t have this capability.
The huge expenses related to the ongoing war in Ukraine may according to Israeli sources bring Moscow to offer ballistic missile technology and hardware to countries who want this capability.
The MTCR seeks to limit the risks of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by controlling exports of goods and technologies that could make a contribution to delivery systems (other than manned aircraft) for such weapons. In this context, the regime places particular focus on rockets and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kg to a range of at least 300 km and on equipment, software, and technology for such systems.
The MTCR is a voluntary arrangement with no independent enforcement mechanism, so compliance is largely self-regulated by member states. Russia has transferred its advanced Iskander missiles to Belarus, and violated MTCR principles.
In light of geopolitical circumstances, analysts and watchdogs characterise these acts as undercutting the regime’s goal and imply that Russia is attempting to undermine long-standing international arms control standards.
With the explicit declaration that “Russia no longer has any limitations, Russia no longer considers itself to be constrained by anything,” Russia signaled in August 2025 that it would no longer adhere to its voluntary ban on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, indicating that it has the right to take any action it sees fit to defend itself. Although this comment does not specifically mention the MTCR, it is considered as a Russian decision not to adhere to international restrictions and missile export limits in general.
-The writer is an Israel-based freelance journalist. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
