United States President Joe Biden said on Jan 28, 2022 that he will deploy American troops in Eastern Europe soon along with other NATO allies in the ongoing face off with Russia on Ukraine. The US president so far has not been able to convince the senate for the military action with many Trump Republicans saying that threat from Russia is not as severe as threat from China for World peace. We are unnecessarily interfering in a European issue. Instead of getting bogged down in non NATO European issue, we should focus on potent threat from Red China. We are still nursing wounds suffered by American troops in Afghanistan and now Joe wants to open another front on an imaginary threat from Moscow to Kyiv, thousands of miles away from mainland not directly affecting us. Vladimir Putin has clarified that Russia will not start the War with Ukraine. Both countries will resolve the issue bilaterally. Russian troops are on routine exercise to protect its frontiers against rogue elements. USA and NATO are creating false alarm in minds of Ukraine citizens. NATO should not unnecessary influence Kyiv to join its organisation with false threats from us.

Meanwhile, Voldymyr Zelensky, President Ukraine, the victim country, has complained of alarmism on part of Washington and causing unnecessary panic for Russian Invasion. There is difference of opinion among other NATO allies regarding Russian threat. Britain has shown solidarity with USA but France and Germany have not allowed use of airspace to fly military aid to Ukraine.

New groups are being formed. China has come in open support of Russia to counter NATO moves for deployment in Ukraine. USA called for a UNSC meet on Ukraine Intervention and was held on January 31, 2022. Ten countries led by US voted for discussion on Ukraine crisis in UNSC. China and Russia voted against. India, Gabon and Kenya abstained in spite of pressure from US. Indian decision to be neutral, is a balancing act as Russia has been a time tested true friend and still largest suppliers of Military hardware. Indian Ambassador in UN T S Tirumurti said that it was our considered view that issue must be solved through diplomatic dialogue under Minsk agreement and Normandy format.

Genesis of the conflict dates back to century’s old Romanov Nicolas ll Tsar Empire when Ukraine was integral part of Russian empire.

After Communist revolution of 1921, a new powerful Soviet Union emerged occupying almost 1/6 of Earth surface. The United Socialist  Soviet Republic (USSR) was made up of 15 Soviet Republics; Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithonia, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. During World War II, USSR wanted to remain neutral and signed a peace treaty at Warsaw with Germany but Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa on eastern front. Russia, Ukraine and allied forces from west fought together and finally turned the table.

With defeat and division of Germany after War, Cold War started. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was formed on April 4, 1949 with USA, Canada, Britain and European allies as members to counter spread of Communism. The current strength of NATO is 30. USSR (Soviet Russia) also initiated association of Warsaw pact countries in 1955. Stalin’s policy of ruthless one party regime and severe economic crisis, developed rifts in Soviet Union. USSR disintegrated into 15 countries in 1991, as policy of Glasnost (Openness) and Perestroika (Restructuring) was adopted by President Gorbachov as a process of democratisation and Yelstin took over as first elected president in June 1991 after referendum in favour of liberal Russia. Ukraine gained independence along with other constituents and became a separate nation in 1991 and gradually started diplomatic and economic relations with west shedding communist legacy.

Russo-Ukraine War is an ongoing low level protracted conflict that started in February 2014 primarily involving Russia and pro Russian allies and Ukraine supported by NATO and European Union. Russian troops occupied Crimea peninsula and parts of Donbas, Kherson Oblast and Sea of Azov following the revolution in Ukraine against pro Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who rejected European agreements. He was removed by pro West rebel groups.

The Russian have amassed about one lakh troops, armoured brigades all along Russo-Ukrainian border since December 2021. Ukraine has also mobilised its reserve troops to reinforce its regular troops. Shows off forces are deployed and training exercises with troops are in progress from both sides. Vladimir Putin has stated time and again Russia will not initiate the War but any provocation by Ukraine assisted by NATO will not be tolerated. Russia has clearly stated that Ukraine should not be lured to join NATO, joint military centres should be established in Ukraine and no NATO exercise should be held in Russo-Ukraine frontier. Biden has put 8500 US troops on standby. Britain has also extended full support but within USA, there are differences of opinion not to send forces to new War zones as local conflict may turn into a multination War.

NATO Russia relations have seen lot of ups and down. The relations between Russia and NATO were established in 1991 within the framework of North Atlantic Cooperation Council and further strengthened in 1994 as it joined partnership for Peace council and also signed various agreements on cooperation. Russia NATO council was formed in 2002 and agreements on military cooperation, weapon non-proliferation, and joint anti-terror operations were initiated. On April 1, 2014, NATO completely suspended all cooperation with Russian Federation in response to annexation of Crimea but NATO Russian council remained. Russia which was added to Group 7 as the eighth member in 1997 was removed from the group in March 2014. In 2017, some progress was made for restoration of military cooperation. The situation flared up as NATO headquarters at Brussels expelled eight Russian diplomats on charges of spying. Russia suspended its mission to NATO and NATO office in Moscow was closed on November 1, 2021. Russia is also not happy as 10 former Warsaw pact countries i.e. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary were taken in fold of NATO after 1997. Croatia, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro were also given membership in 2004.

The main issue of contention is induction of western military equipment and facilities in Ukraine and finally make it a member of NATO.  Allies are not interested in sending troops directly to Ukraine   but indirectly would contribute with military hardware, ammunition, financial aid, logistics cover, intelligence, medicines, rations etc. Joe Biden knows in heart of its heart, it is a futile exercise. Russia has already achieved its aim by physically taking over Crimea and inducted friendly forces in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are well poised for a blitzkrieg but War clouds are still not on the horizon. With the advent of spring, tempers will cool down.

-The writer is an Indian Army veteran and a defence analyst. He has keen interest in Geo-strategic affairs and writes regularly on internal and external affairs issues related to India and neighbours. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda.