“W here Vigilance goes; alertness falls; tragedy occurs,” said my late father Raghunath Singh long back while giving me lessons in driving. To put it simply in Hindi: ‘Nazar Hati, Durghatna Ghati’ (If you take your eyes off the road; an accident will take place).
The Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, is a tragic case of collective failure of vigilance and alertness. The tragedy had been long coming, but its director and scriptwriter, Pakistan, was badly embroiled in its own political-military problems.
It chose to strike now when India and its agencies crossed all limits of complacency. Its seeds were sown when the assembly elections were conducted in Jammu and Kashmir in April-May 2024. The Supreme Court of India shares this blame by forcing the Central government to conduct elections by laying down a deadline. One wonders why the Supreme Court was fond of time-bound deadlines.
Shocking Absence of Security Piquet
In April 2024, I visited Srinagar and the surrounding areas. In particular, my visit to tourist resorts at Doodhpathri and Gulmarg enthralled me. I was stunned by the tourist boom and an atmosphere of fun and frolic. What shocked me was the absence of any security piquet. There were no gun-wielding soldiers anywhere. I had then wondered, “What would happen if terrorists land up and fire?” There were thousands of tourists freely roaming there. But time, then, was on our side.
My mind went back to the mid-1990s when the Kashmir Valley was a security state and there was no free movement of men and vehicles. Roads and crossings were littered with gun-wielding security personnel. There used to be hide-and-seek games between Pakistan-sponsored militants and Indian security forces. I was posted in the Keran Sector of Kupwara, in 1997-2000 and I have seen those hey days of militancy there. But the visit in April 2024 was a pleasant surprise. It was as good as was in 1971-74 when I first time came to the Kashmir Valley.
Some questions crossed my mind in April 2024. Was the peace and harmony, I saw in the Valley in April 2024, a false dream? Had it generated a false sense of security amongst people in general but administration in Particular? Had a state of complacency been set in all apparatus of state security and intelligence? What happened, a year later, on April 22, 2025, at Pahalgam, gives a positive response to my simple questions!
It is because, I reckon that the security forces, intelligence agencies and J&K administration had ignored one dangerous characteristic of the Pakistani Army — 24 hours, 365 days, the enemy of India. How could it allow peace and harmony in Kashmir, while the people of Pakistan (read Imran Khan-led PTI) had begun to challenge it? The Pakistani Army was battling with its own people and its attention had been slightly diverted inwards. Terrorist organisations in Pakistan operating against India had temporarily lost patronage and they were on their own.
Besides, successful counter-insurgency operations by the Indian security forces had pinned down Pakistan-sponsored militancy. Local recruitment had become very difficult. Abrogation of Articles 35 A and 370 had created different environments because J&K had come directly under the Union government. Effective measures by the Union government reduced local support and people began to see a new dawn.
It is incomprehensible as to why there were no security arrangements in this important, popular and isolated tourist resort, even after the ‘Jugular Vein’ statement of the Pakistan Army Chief. The terrorists came to the area a few days ago and stayed in Pahalgam and knew there was no security piquet at the place. They planned the operation to the minutest details, yet the Indian intelligence agencies failed to see the danger
New opportunities were given to Kashmiri youth and economic activities picked up, which even continue today. The extensive support Pakistan had enjoyed during the heyday of militancy, during the period 1990-2019, was considerably reduced. The Valley, which had risen up in arms totally (99-95%) in 1990, does not have more than 10-15% people supporting Pakistan-sponsored militancy in Kashmir today. Thus, by mid-2022, signs of normalcy began to appear, which led to a sense of false victory by the Indian state apparatus, including the Indian judiciary.
Judiciary-induced Blunder
A judiciary-induced blunder took place when India went for elections in J&K. A job ‘half-done’ by security forces was assumed and stamped ‘fully completed’. The election results threw up the same old guard of Kashmiri politicians into the forefront. Thus, talks of a full-fledged state with absolute powers for the local politicians, who had been the root cause of the problem, came to the surface. This also activated the 10-15 % pro-Pakistanis lying dormant so far. Renewed pro-militant activities sent positive messages to terror groups in Pakistan.
There have been some scattered terrorist activities since January 2025. But slowly terrorists picked up activities in the Jammu region in March 2025. However, an immediate push came from Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir’s address to non-resident Pakistanis on April 16, 2025. He, in his “Kashmir as our Jugular Vein” address, had lambasted Hindus and India. And within a week Pahalgam carnage took place. There is no doubt that it was not only state state-sponsored operation but scripted, planned, directed and executed by the Pakistani Army. No amount of denial by Pakistan can undo this.
But what is shocking is the state of complacency in India. Its security forces, its intel apparatus and police organisation in the Valley were blank about the imminent danger. There is no doubt that the operation was planned to the minutest details. The objective must have been fully reconnoitered. It is now known that terrorists had come a few days early and stayed in Pahalgam. Definitely, they had their overground collaborators who helped them and provided logistics support.
It was known to perpetrators of violence that there was no permanent security piquet with weapons at the place. It is incomprehensible as to why there was NO security arrangement, even after the “Jugular Vein” statement of the Pakistan Army Chief. Such an important, popular and isolated tourist resort demanded this. Last year, I felt this while at the Doodhpathri tourist resort. I can now say with confidence that it flowed from a false sense of victory and a complacent state of mind. The age-old maxim rushes through the curves of my brain that Never Underestimate Your Enemy.
A false sense of security with a high degree of complacency by Indian security forces and intel agencies facilitated the Pakistani Army to carry out this carnage with impunity. Soft state government and its police share the blame. How surprising that neither state leaders nor the general public interviewed have named Pakistan. The common refrain is: ‘Terrorism has no religion’
This is definitely an intel failure of the Kashmir government, too. State intel organisation is deemed to have been compromised. Police are supposed to have their ears on the ground. Militants have not appeared suddenly from the heavens in an unknown area. They had rehearsed very well in the area. Outsiders in the area could have been easily spotted if police were not deliberately sleeping. Even if 2-3 policemen were posted at the site with weapons, the damage would have been much less. The connivance of local police cannot be ruled out.
Terrorists had also known that the tourist resort was some 30-35 minutes foot-slogging from the road head. So, they had enough time available with them to do the planned violence. Immediate Reaction Team would have taken 40-45 minutes before being effective. This was enough lead time for the operative group of terrorists and their logistic support group to disappear into the wilderness of the forest. I have a suspicion that one or two over-ground coordinators were present at the place even after the incident. I suspect the man who is shown in the video talking on the mobile and telling the aggrieved lady, seeking help, “Don’t worry, we will give you water”.
In conclusion, I can say that a false sense of security with a high degree of complacency by Indian security forces and intel agencies facilitated the Pakistani Army to carry out this carnage with impunity. Soft state government and its police share the blame. How surprising that neither state leaders nor the general public interviewed have named Pakistan. The common refrain is: “Terrorism has no religion”.
It is further amplified by statements such as that terrorists were “Non-State Actors”. What’s more, some qualify them as “Not True Muslims”. All sorts of objectives were used to define the perpetrators but no one named Pakistan and the “Jihad groups”. What is worse was when Indian politicians like Robert Vadra blamed “Hindutva” policies of the Central government. Pakistan picks up such statements by Indian politicians and refutes its involvement.
Finally, the Union government must put its own house in order, along with its kinetic and non-kinetic actions against Pakistan. The government has announced certain actions, which will damage Pakistan’s economy. It is interesting to note that the waters of the Indus River alone add to 24 % of Pakistan’s GDP. Its national GDP is serviced by 76% of agricultural produce. Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty would damage Pakistan.
Reports also suggest the involvement of a Hamas group in the Pahalgam attack. It is alleged that some Hamas leaders had a meeting with LeT and ISI leaders in Bahawalpur, four days before the Pahalgam carnage. There is no doubt that collaborators within Kashmir, however minuscule their strength, do facilitate such acts of terrorism by Pakistan
However, more important for India is to revitalise its intel agencies. Their sources should be able to smell outsiders in their areas of influence. In so doing J&K police needs an overhaul. Policemen from the Kashmir Valley should be posted in the Jammu region and vice versa. Central agencies like IB, BSF, CRPF and even military intelligence need to be centrally coordinated to share intel inputs. The time is not ripe for the grant of full statehood to J&K.
Reports are also suggesting a Hamas group involvement in this Pahalgam attack. It is alleged that some Hamas leaders had a meeting with LeT and ISI leaders in Bahawalpur, four days before the Pahalgam carnage. There is no doubt that collaborators within Kashmir, however minuscule their strength, do facilitate such acts of terrorism by Pakistan. They exist within Kashmir and the rest of India too. In the instant case, too, there was a local collaborator. I conclude this piece by quoting from Times of India Article, dated April 24, 2025:
“…..Adil (Adil Thokar, a local Kashmiri from Anantnag) is believed to have helped them (terrorists) find a hideout, study the area for days, finalise the attack method and timing, and secure an escape route.”
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
