Iran’s Progress Towards Military Nuclear Capability Reflects in its Growing Aggression: Israeli Expert

By Arie Egozi

Foreign Affairs

Tel Aviv: Considering the growing aggression of Iran by using its proxies around the world and Tehran’s new close relations with Moscow, the west must wake up to the imminent threat of Iran with long range missiles carrying nuclear warheads.

“The faint action against the Houthi rebels in Yemen blocking international waterways in the Red sea must be a wakeup call to the US and Europe who show embarrassing weakness toward the increasing aggression of Iran,” an Israeli expert told Raksha Anirveda.

The expert added that the weakness of the UN, the IAEA and the NATO signal to Iran that it can close the small gap to assembling the first nuclear warheads.

Col (Res.) Dr Eran Lerman, Vice President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security writes in the Institute’s website that in the recent meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the participants were presented with mounting evidence of Iran’s progress towards military nuclear capability.

“A presentation by the E-3 (Germany, Britain and France) dwelled on Iran’s lack of cooperation, refusal to account for past activities, and its ongoing efforts, which constitute a grave threat: by some estimates, Iran can now dash within a week from 60% enrichment to enough WGU (Weapon-Grade Uranium) for a bomb, and a dozen bombs within five months.”

According to the researcher, under present circumstances, there is no prospect of coercive action by the IAEA, let alone the UN Security Council.

“Meanwhile, US friction with the IRGC, its proxies’ provocations against US troops in Iraq and Syria, and the Iranian-backed Houthi threats to international waters, have grown steadily more violent. Israel must, even at a time of war, ring the alarm bells, alerting American and Western decision-makers to what is at stake. Firm and immediate action is necessary: There may be no choice but to stop Iran by all means necessary, even as the war in Gaza is ongoing.”

According to the senior researcher, Iran has now more than 1,200 kg enriched to 2%, more than 2,200 kg at 5%, and at the higher levels – short leaps away from Weapon-Grade Uranium (WGU) – its stockpile of uranium enriched at 20% has risen by 30 kg to 567 kg; and at 60% has risen by 6.7 kg to 128 kg.

“The higher levels of enrichment can have no other purpose than shortening the time necessary for the last leap to WGU (above 90%). This could be done in new and unsupervised facilities in a matter of a few months or even weeks.”

According to Lerman, all this has led the E-3 group – Germany, Britain and France, who had also been parties to the JCPOA alongside the US, Russia and China – to present the IAEA Board of Governors with a sharply worded formal statement, warning that Iran’s conduct on these issues amounts to “frustration” of the IAEA’s work. Stop all enrichment above 3.67% and start reducing the stockpile of uranium enriched above this level.

“The language, however, still refers – even in the face of such grave evidence and dramatic conclusions – to the quest for a solution by peaceful means.”

According to the researcher, the Board of Governors did not initiate actual measures against Iran. Israeli sources say that this less of action enables Iran to continue with its nuclear program.

“With Russia as an ally, Tehran feels even safer while mocking the international apparatus built to stop the Iranian gallop to the bomb,” one of the sources said.