Phizo was the undisputed leader of the anti-India, Naga underground movement. It was a different matter that he had been leading a lavish life in London since 1951. Warrant Officer Sakhrie was considered the man with sixth sense, these were the attributes given to the senior soldiers by the troops themselves and confided to Khan by the troops, indicating him gaining their trust. Khan briefed his JCOs (Junior Commissioned Officers) about the route and likely ambush points; it was a give and take. Warrant Officer Sakhrie educated Khan that an early move would not be very advisable due to weather, mist and fog that prevail during winters till six in the morning and the associated wet and mushy ground would make recce and securing the areas around the road difficult. – Extract from ‘The Khan Saga: End of the Beginning’ by Group Captain Arun Kashyap.
Since antiquity, military commanders have understood that strategic victories depend as much on the environment as on raw firepower. Long before modern radar, ancient Levantine and Mesopotamian empires invoked Indra, the Hindu deity of weather, when signing treaties or marching into battle. Today, despite the era of “all-weather” weaponry, that fundamental truth remains unaltered. The warring nation that disregards the elements does so at its own peril.
As geopolitical tensions flare in the Middle East, the surge in aerial operations is often framed solely as a quest to protect the Petrodollar or to replenish depleted air defence stockpiles like the Patriot and Arrow-III systems. However, the primary catalyst remains the relentless march of the seasonal calendar. Peak summer brings scorching heat, blinding dust and cloudless skies – environmental factors that severely degrade Western military capabilities while leaving regional tactics largely unhindered.
Since antiquity – when ancient Mesopotamian empires invoked the weather god Indra before battle – the elements have dictated the outcome of war. Today, despite the illusion of “all-weather” precision warfare, nature remains the ultimate arbiter of victory. From the jungle mist masking guerrilla manoeuvres in South Asia to the brutal 60°C flight decks crippling modern aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, means that any force that ignores the calendar does so at its own peril
The Midsummer Operational Trap
The Mechanics of Attrition: Operating from distant bases like Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti, strike aircraft like the F-15E and F-35I face three- to four-hour transit times per sortie. Aircrews quickly hit severe fatigue limits, while advanced platforms demand up to 13 hours of maintenance for every hour flown. Peak summer heat, dust and humidity drastically reduce aircraft payload capacity and severely strain sensitive electronics.
The window for effective Western air campaigns is rapidly closing. While cloudless winter and spring skies favour Iranian air defence systems and optical/IR-guided loitering drones, the onset of peak summer shifts the burden entirely onto Western forces. With precision-guided munitions running low after initial engagements, reliance shifts to piloted platforms operating across vast distances.
Extreme heat forces airbases to rely on centralised, air-conditioned maintenance hangars, eliminating the ability to disperse aircraft. These clustered sites become high-priority, stationary targets for Iranian drone and missile strikes. Meanwhile, any prospective ground operations in Iran’s rugged, semi-arid terrain become practically non-viable for unacclimated forces facing ambient temperatures exceeding 40°C-50°C. High visibility and clear skies leave troop-transport platforms highly vulnerable to man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), rendering ambitious territorial claims in the Persian Gulf unrealistic.
Steel Behemoths Under Severe Environmental Stress
Flight Deck Realities: Aircraft carriers positioned nearly 1,000 km away to avoid hypersonic threats face extreme thermal conditions. Steel flight decks reach temperatures between 60°C and 65°C – hot enough to cause secondary burns – while ambient air temperatures hover near the upper limits of human endurance. System malfunctions, reduced crew shift durations and compromised tyre integrity during high-speed takeoffs and landings rapidly erode Carrier Strike Group readiness.
For four millennia, from the earliest treaties of the Levant to modern air campaigns, warring nations have tried to conquer the battlefield – only to be humbled by the sky above and the ground below. No amount of advanced technology can override thermodynamics, regional micro-climates and the relentless law of environmental friction
Naval operations are equally bound by thermodynamics. The non-stick surfaces of carrier decks turn into thermal traps, presenting severe safety risks to flight deck crews and placing immense operational stress on mechanical systems. Despite deploying vast arrays of tactical aviation, actual air-power projection precipitously declines under midsummer heat.
Fragile Geography and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
Structural Fragility: Modern Gulf states, shaped by arbitrary historical borders like the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, rely on energy-intensive infrastructure to sustain human habitation. Essential water demands are met almost entirely through coastal desalination plants. Striking even a few key facilities can render hyper-urbanised centres uninhabitable within days, neutralising nearby military installations without directly engaging them.
Unlike ancient civilisational states with varied topography and natural river basins, many modern Gulf economies rely on complex, artificial support systems. Desalination plants process massive volumes of seawater, but the process expels concentrated, heated brine loaded with heavy metals and chemical additives back into the narrow Persian Gulf.
Advanced fighters demand 13 hours of repair for every hour in the sky. Aircraft carrier decks heat up to 65°C. Desalination plants dictate regional survival. Modern warfare claims to be “all-weather,” but history and modern reality tell a different story: nature still chooses whom the Gods of War will favour
This ecological loop raises local water temperatures and degrades marine habitats. Rising water temperatures worsen regional thermal high-pressure systems, triggering severe micro-climates and super-storms that desert soil cannot absorb. Because water consumption spikes during extreme heat, the vulnerability of critical utility infrastructure becomes a primary strategic liability.
The Closing Window of Hegemony
Geopolitical Pressure: Blocking vital maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz disrupts both refined fuel exports and essential food imports. As the summer window narrows, regional allies face intense pressure to protect their domestic utilities, forcing coalition forces into a tight timeline to negotiate terms before environmental conditions enforce a standstill.
Iran’s demonstrated ability to target utility infrastructure exposes the deep vulnerability of regional logistics hubs. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz immediately impact crude outflows and critical import pipelines. Furthermore, pressure along secondary maritime routes, such as the Red Sea, limits alternative export options.
Recognizing that extreme weather will soon curtail heavy flight schedules and strain domestic support across host nations, strategic planners face a strict deadline. In a high-stakes regional conflict, two months of severe weather can alter the balance of power, proving once again that nature ultimately dictates the terms of engagement.
The writer is an Indian Air Force veteran and published author who has been a Navigation and Missile Instructor alongside being a weapon system evaluator. At present, he is a performance instructor for the Boeing 737. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
