In politics, disruption seems to bring a wave of novelty — change that promises to deliver on countless hopes, aspirations, and desires of the citizenry. However, the Greek philosopher Aristotle was of the view that any change, no matter how small, is radical — bringing with it discomfort and an acute sense of uncertainty that compromises stability. Something of this sort was probably experienced by the Brazilian voters recently.
The recently concluded general election saw a close fight between the veteran left-wing populist leader Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, a politician and the son of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was incarcerated in 2025 by the Brazilian Supreme Court on charges of trying to orchestrate a coup to overturn his 2022 electoral loss to Lula.
The close contest between Lula and Bolsonaro shows that a large section of Brazilian voters remains wary of a left-wing government
A Polarised Electorate
However, Lula’s victory was far from easy. In the first round of voting, he was trailing Flavio Bolsonaro, who clearly looked to be leading the poll charts. But the veteran politician staged a dramatic comeback, becoming the first electoral candidate since Brazil’s return to democratic rule in 1965 to have won an election despite losing the first round.
However, the final vote share of both leaders shows a somewhat different picture — Lula took 51.79% of votes, against Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, revealing a sharply divided electorate. While it does appear that the people of the country were generally swayed by Lula’s politics of redistribution, promotion of a welfare state, and a commitment to improve the quality of life, they are still concerned about the increasing menace of corruption, tighter immigration controls, crime, and better external relations with major powers, especially the United States. The close contest shows that a large section of Brazilian citizens remains wary of a left-wing government.
A believer in multi-vector foreign policy, Lula views India as a close partner, a robust democracy, and an upcoming major power that deserves a stronger position globally
Bulwark Against Growing Right-Wing Tide
The Pink Tide, a concept that signified the prominence of Marxist ideology-driven governments, dominated South American politics for a while. However, beginning in 2023, the continent has seen a pronounced right-wing shift. Leaders such as Javier Milei of Argentina and Daniel Noboa of Ecuador are prominent examples. Further, the surge in vote share of right-wing parties in Chile, Peru, and Bolivia has brought this political shift into the limelight.
Several reasons can be attributed to this politico-ideological shift:
First, economic growth in several of the above-mentioned countries and in others has been sluggish in recent years, particularly since lockdown curbs were lifted in late 2021 in most of the countries in this region to try and restore normalcy to life during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Second, the shabby state of public infrastructure coupled with poor provision of state services fuelled public anger against the existing left-of-the-centre model of governance.
The good ties between India and Brazil are likely to continue. India is expected to push for closer partnerships in critical sectors such as AI, semiconductors, renewable energy, biotechnology, and biofuels
Third, high crime rates, failure to tackle corruption, and rising inflation created a cocktail of public resentment that acquired volcanic proportions in some countries, ready to erupt during elections.
Fourth, rising immigration coupled with a high cost-of-living and housing crisis has fuelled xenophobia amid calls for imposing tighter immigration curbs, often fuelled by conservative political blocs.
However, Lula’s victory seems to have halted this tide, making it particularly consequential because without South America’s biggest country, both in economic and geographical terms, having a conservative, left-wing government, the right-wing wave cannot truly be called gigantic.
Implications for India
Notwithstanding his ideological stance, when it comes to foreign policy, the Brazilian President has been a pragmatist. A believer in the idea of multi-vector foreign policy, Lula views India as a close partner, a robust democracy, and an upcoming major power that deserves a strong position globally. A votary of the reform of key multilateral institutions, Lula has been a vocal advocate of India’s right to have a permanent seat in the UN Security Council by virtue of its economic standing, robust democracy, technological sophistication, strong human capital, and institutional credibility.
Brazil holds special significance for India because it possesses certain critical minerals. For these minerals, India may look to Brazil for potential imports, especially nickel and cobalt
Therefore, the good relations between the two countries are likely to continue. India is expected to push for closer partnerships in critical sectors such as AI, semiconductors, renewable energy, biotechnology, and biofuels. Brazil holds special significance for India in terms of its possession of certain critical minerals; therefore, in an attempt to fortify the supply chains of critical minerals, India may well look to Brazil for potential imports, especially nickel and cobalt.
Another major area of convergence would be the development of a common front against the United States. Given that both countries have been at the receiving end of American President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, it is expected that both countries will shore up their mutual interests to soften the blows or thwart attempts by the American administration to arm-twist them into compromising with their hard-earned sovereignty.
Overall, it can be said that India-Brazil ties will continue to move north on the path of cooperation, peace, and strategic stability in the coming years
The writer is a doctoral candidate in Political Science at Mahatma Gandhi Central University. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
