The first ever Quad Leaders’ Summit was held virtually on March 12, 2021, among then US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Opening the summit, President Biden said that the Quad would be a vital arena for cooperation, and a free and open Indo-Pacific region was essential to all of their futures, adding, “The United States is committed to working with you and with all our allies in the region to achieve stability. This group is particularly important because it is dedicated to the practical solutions and concrete results.”
A joint statement titled ‘The Spirit of the Quad’ issued at the end of the above summit included: commitment for free and open Indo-Pacific; strengthening cooperation on defining challenges of the time; advancing security and prosperity and counter threats in Indo-Pacific and beyond; freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity; address shared challenges in cyber space, critical technologies, counterterrorism, infrastructure investment, humanitarian assistance, disaster-relief and in maritime domains; strengthen climate actions of all nations; cooperation in critical technologies of the future; prioritise role of international law in maritime domain; in addition to some other issues including cooperation in combating COVID-19.
Subsequent summits, both by Heads of States and at Foreign Ministers level, ended with joint statements on similar lines that also included: commitment for free and open Indo-Pacific …. strengthening cooperation on defining challenges …. freedom of navigation and over-flights …. prioritise a role of international law in the maritime domain. Everyone knew the primary threat to the Indo-Pacific was Chinese aggression and aggressive policies. India was part of deliberations in these summits, America being the most intense, but China was never named in any of the joint statements; reportedly because Australia and India did not want so.
Quad not being a military grouping, Biden focused on creating an expanding number of mutually reinforcing links between like-minded countries, together forming a “lattice barrier”; roping in the Philippines, Japan and others – to be better equipped against China. At one stage, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even called for a NATO-like alliance for the Indo-Pacific; an “Asian NATO”.
Everyone at Quad summits knew the primary threat to the Indo-Pacific was Chinese aggression and aggressive policies. India was part of deliberations in summits, the United States being the most intense, yet China was never named in any joint statement; reportedly because Australia and India did not want to
On September 21, 2024, Biden chaired the fourth Quad Leaders’ Summit, his last. It brought out Quad is: executing ambitious projects across the Indo-Pacific; help partners address pandemics and disease; respond to natural disasters; strengthen maritime domain awareness and maritime security; mobilise and build high-standard physical and digital infrastructure; invest in and benefit from critical and emerging technologies; confront the threat of climate change; bolster cyber security; and cultivate the next generation of technology leaders; launched Indo-Pacific Logistics Network pilot project for response to natural disasters; launch Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission in 2025.
The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet on December 31, 2024, issued a joint statement emphasising their shared vision for the region, which they described as peaceful, stable, and prosperous, supported by effective regional institutions. They reiterated their support for ASEAN, acknowledging its central role in maintaining regional stability and unity.
Quad was discussed during the bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the POTUS Donald Trump on February 13, 2025. Both launched a new initiative – the “US-India COMPACT” (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership. Under this initiative, they committed to a results-driven agenda with initial outcomes this year to demonstrate the level of trust for a mutually beneficial partnership. Both pledged to sustain high-level engagement between the two nations and realise their ambitious vision for an enduring partnership that advances the aspirations for a bright and prosperous future and contributes to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
On January 24, 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a phone call to China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, emphasised that the Trump administration will pursue a relationship with China that “advances US interests and puts the American people first.” According to the US State Department, Rubio “stressed the United States’ commitment to our allies in the region and serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. China’s foreign ministry said Wang told Rubio that both sides should implement the consensus reached during the conversation between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Wang reiterated China’s sovereignty claims over Taiwan (China has not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control). During his Senate confirmation, Rubio had characterised China as “the most potent and dangerous, near-peer adversary this nation (the US) has ever confronted.”
Trump has said the US-China relationship needs to be fair. He also added that tariffs on China could get sky-high, or be nothing at all; the deciding factor is whether Beijing is willing to come to the table. However, he has recently doubled the tariffs on China – from 10% to 20%. On February 26, 2025, during his first Cabinet meeting, Trump declined to comment in response to a question about whether the US would ever allow China to take control of Taiwan by force. “I never comment on that,” Trump said at the White House. “I don’t want to ever put myself in that position.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a phone call to China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, emphasised the US will pursue a relationship with China that ‘advances US interests’. He stressed the US commitment to its allies and concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea
But most notably, Trump has changed the US policy on Taiwan; in a significant departure from all his predecessors. The US Department of State website has removed a key phrase that previously stated Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence. Moreover, it also modifies references to Taiwan’s participation in international organisations by removing the condition “where statehood is not a requirement.” It also includes a reference to the Pentagon’s collaboration with Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council, suggesting deeper ties in technological and defence-related areas.
Taiwan has welcomed the new US stance, with its foreign minister expressing gratitude for America’s “support and positive stance on US-Taiwan relations” and its commitment to peace in the Taiwan Strait. China condemned the change, saying the US has “gravely backpedalled” on its position on Taiwan and sent the wrong message to “separatist forces” on the island. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun has said, “We urge the US to stop emboldening and supporting Taiwan independence and avoid further damaging China-US relations and the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.”
The military cooperation among Quad nations has focused on increasing interoperability cooperation in maritime surveillance, logistics cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and disaster relief operations. However, it must be acknowledged that Quad was ‘revived’ during Trump’s first term. Given Trump’s changed stance over Taiwan now, he may want the Quad defence relationship a notch higher, though not classifying it as a military alliance. For example, he may demand that the time has come for joint statements in Quad summits to mention China rather than being vague about the obvious, especially when he chairs the Quad Heads of State Summit in India this year. Incidentally, China is also expecting Modi to attend the SCO Summit in China this year.
Trump may demand that the time has come for joint statements in Quad summits to mention China rather than being vague about the obvious, especially when he chairs the Quad Heads of State Summit in India this year. Incidentally, China expects Prime Minister Modi to attend the SCO Summit in China this year
Trump has not levied tariffs on India, although the spectre remains. Concurrently, India has lowered tariffs on its own, including lowering tariffs on Electric Vehicles (from 115% to 15%), which will facilitate entry of Elon Musk’s Tesla EVs in India. In his recent meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said that tariffs on the UK are unnecessary because a US-UK trade pact is in the works. Same should apply to India as well since an India-US trade pact is also being finalised. But this does not imply that Trump’s global trade policies would not impact India’s economy. There is speculation that India will have to reduce tariffs on agricultural products because of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy. Trump’s tariffs on China will also adversely impact India’s economy, given the India-China trade relations. Trump may like to further increase tariffs on China, in a bid to wean away India from China. The spectre of Trump’s tariffs on India, therefore, remains indirect. The US and China both eye increased investments in India and a bigger share of its markets. However, Trump has a bigger hold on Modi, as is evident from the global dynamics. India is in no easy position.
The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
