The forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Modi to the US is creating a buzz in the international power corridor as it is taking place at the time when intensity of Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region has increased and the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered a worldwide concern for its detrimental impact on the global economy and food and energy security.
Clearly, agenda of discussion between Prime Minister Modi and President Biden, as per media reports, is expected to be long and weighty, covering issues of trade and commerce, defence partnership, technological collaboration, and Indo-Pacific strategy. Of these issues, ongoing India-US partnership in the defence area will be a highly watched affair worldwide.
Following US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s two-day (June 4-5) trip to India, ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s much- talked about state visit to the US, experts’ curiosity in knowing the details of the India-US engagement in the defence sector has increased. There is a possibility of the two countries signing agreements on transfer of critical technologies for co-development of military hardware.
“The visit provides an opportunity to accelerate new defence innovation and industrial cooperation initiatives and drive ongoing efforts to expand operational cooperation between the US and Indian militaries,” Pentagon said in the wake of Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to India. It should be noted that India has been looking for manufacturing jet engines under the framework of technology transfer to power its fighter jets, especially Light Combat Aircraft and high-tech drones for the military.
The US has already given a green signal to General Electric to transfer jet manufacturing technology to India. It is expected that a formal agreement in this regard will take place during Prime Minister Modi’s visit. During Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit, the two countries also made in-principal agreements for co-production of critical technologies in the areas of land mobility, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, munitions and the undersea domain.
There is more to it than meets the eye. Overall picture suggests that the US is keen to draw India away from Russia which has hitherto served as the mainstay of the country’s defence hardware. Given that China has emerged as a formidable enemy of India with its military personnel stay put along the Line of Actual Control for the past three years and is busy in scaling up offensive capabilities against its southern neighbour, New Delhi is making due efforts to enhance its defence preparedness.
Sanction-ridden Russia is not able to commit to supplies of military hardware to India. It has been facing hurdles in supplying spare parts for MiG-29 and Su-30MKI aircraft, while it is yet to work out means to deliver two S-400 missile defence system batteries. Russia has already provided India with three S-400 missile defence system batteries, but since its economic condition has started crippling and the fight with Ukraine has impacted its defence manufacturing capabilities, Moscow is not able to meet New Delhi’s needs for military hardware.
This has provided the US an opportune moment to capture India’s defence market by sharing its military technology and co-developing top-grade weapons under the country’s ‘Make-in-India’ programme. Besides, it should not be forgotten about India’s centrality in the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
With both countries being a democratic power and mutual understanding between the two increasing day by day, the duo along with like-minded countries is worried about China’s aggressive design in the region which is home to more than half of the world’s population, nearly two-thirds of the world’s economy, and seven of the world’s largest militaries.
Each year, more than $3 trillion worth of international trade passes through the disputed South China Sea alone. The region supports more than three million American jobs and is the source of nearly $900 billion in foreign direct investment in the US. For India, the region which is a part of its geographic and strategic expense, with 10 ASEAN countries connecting the two great Oceans, it is a source of its development through imports, exports, and investments.
This is the reason, India stands for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. The US visit by Prime Minister Modi will facilitate the two countries in further strengthening their strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region through Quad and bilateral mechanisms.
Under bilateral mechanisms, they regularly hold military and air exercises. Naval exercise is undertaken by the two countries through Quad or plurilateral structures. Though India and the US have repeatedly said that Quad is not a military alliance, there is more to it than meets the eye. Navy chiefs of India, Japan, Australia, and the US held their meeting on November 5, 2022 and exchanged views on further enhancing interoperability in future editions of the Malabar multilateral naval exercise.
To be held from August 11 to 22 off Australia’s east coast, the 2023 edition of Malabar exercise will see all four participants practising interoperability, sea deterrence, and sea denial to ensure freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific.
However, defence cooperation apart, Modi’s US visit will be keenly watched by diplomats and international experts as he will be the only Indian Prime Minister who would be twice addressing a joint meeting of the US Congress. He had first addressed the joint session of the US Congress in 2016. Other Indian Prime Ministers who got an opportunity to address the joint session of the US Congress include Manmohan Singh in 2005, Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2000, P V Narasimha Rao in 1994 and Rajiv Gandhi in 1985.
Importance of Modi among American leadership can be derived from US Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other Congress leaders’ joint invitation letter to the Indian Prime Minister. In the letter, they write: “Your historic address to a joint meeting of the Congress seven years ago left a lasting impact and greatly deepened the friendship between the US and India.” Earlier, during the Quad summit, held on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Hiroshima in Japan in May this year, the world was a witness to a rare glimpse when US President Joe Biden walked up to Prime Minister Modi and hugged him, while heaping praise on his leadership.
“You are causing me a real problem. Next month we have a dinner for you in Washington. Everyone in the whole country wants to come. I have run out of tickets. You think I am kidding? Ask my team. I am getting phone calls from people I have never heard of before. Everyone from movie actors to relatives. You are too popular.” This marks the deepening and abiding craze that Prime Minister Modi has created among the US leadership.
Some experts view it differently. They say it is an American way to throw a charm offensive around India’s strong political leader whose influence cuts across continents because of his personal reputation of being decisive and no nonsense leader. Yet whatever be the outcome of his forthcoming US visit, the Indian Prime Minister is not expected to be a camp follower of America as the need of hour is having a strong multipolar system in the world that can fulfil expectations of the countries of Global South.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda