The votes have been counted in perhaps one of the most significant elections in Israel’s political history, an election that was projected more as a referendum on Prime Minister Netanyahu than anything else. Instead, the results have turned it into a debate on Israel’s identity and future rather than Netanyahu’s chances of returning to power. With the final votes counted, Netanyahu’s block has failed to secure a clear majority and his Likud Party too, lost a significant number of seats.
However, unlike many media projections of an anti-Netanyahu wave in Israel, the final results showed that Netanyahu’s far-right wing block still came out strong with the largest number of seats in the 120-member Knesset. The key challenger, Gadi Eisonkot, a former Chief of Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and leader of the Yashar Party and the opposition coalition, came out second and seems to have failed to capitalise fully on a widespread anti-Netanyahu sentiment.
However, the most significant part of the result was the Arab parties consisting of the Arab List and the Ra’am Party throwing up a major surprise. By winning 19 seats, the highest ever, they have become virtually indispensable in the process of the government formation.
Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, the opposition 48, and the Arab parties a record 19. Likud leads with 27 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21, on a decades-high turnout of 77.9%
An election which was the first one after the October7, 2023 Hamas attack and which was fought on a simple binary, ‘for or against Netanyahu’ has turned out to be more complex and politically controversial than anticipated and could have major repercussions for the future of Israel as a state.
It could either open up opportunities for peaceful co-existence between various communities or it could lead to an increasingly divided society where a large percentage of non-Jewish citizens, despite being valid voters and electing almost 16% of Member of Knesset (MK), do not have a voice in government formation only because of their religion.
Election Results
The Central Elections Committee (CEC) published the final results of the election on October 30, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc winning 53 seats, the anti-Netanyahu bloc with 48 and the Arab factions with 19. The final voter turnout was 77.9% of eligible voters – the highest figure in decades. Party wise, Netanyahu’s Likud Party emerged as the single largest party with 27 seats followed by Gadi Eisonkot’s Yashar Party at 21 seats.
What Now?
Israel’s election results will be officially certified and presented to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, and the new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn- in on November 10. Once the MKs are sworn in, Herzog will task one incoming Knesset member with forming a new government by November 11, selecting the candidate he believes has the best chance of building a coalition.
The opposition leader Eisenkot has set four conditions for Arab parties: accepting Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, the Declaration of Independence, mandatory service, and recognising Hamas as a terrorist organisation
Hectic parleys are taking place with the opposition coalition realising that the only way out of this deadlock is to reach an understanding of some form with the Arab parties.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, knows that there are very slim chances of his coalition getting the required 61 seats as it has categorically ruled out any understanding with the Arabs, alleging that their large numbers are mainly due to foreign intervention and ‘stealing of the elections’.
In his usual alarmist style, Netanyahu has warned of the dangers of ‘Islamisation of Israel’ if the Arab MKs are taken into a coalition. Gadi Eisenkot on the other hand, is taking a more practical position, setting out four clear conditions, basically for the Arab parties to agree for having any chance of joining the coalition, which are:
- Acceptance of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
- Agreement with the values and principles set forth in what is known as the “Declaration of Independence of Israel”.
- Acceptance of the obligation of every citizen to perform mandatory service, whether military or civilian.
- Recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organisation that must be dismantled.
Bennett and Golan are backing Eisenkot and engagement with Arab parties. Tibi’s Joint List offers outside support, while Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas accepts the four conditions
After initial reluctance, many of Eisonkot’s coalition leaders too are warming up to the idea. Naftali Bennet, ex-Prime Minister and one of the leaders of the opposition coalition has declared that “Throughout the entire election campaign, I promised to respect the decision of the voter, and that is what I am doing now. Therefore, I have decided that the “Together” faction will recommend to the president to entrust the task of forming the government to Gadi Eizenkot.”
Yair Golan, the leader of Democrats Party too has said, “It’s Time to Form a Government with Arabs. We’ll continue to disagree and negotiate with Arabs but we won’t delegitimise people, nor will we accept the rules imposed by Netanyahu’s “poison machine” to keep itself in power. The ballot cast by Arabs is the same as the one cast by Jews”.
Within the Arab camp too, there is a sense that it is ‘now or never’ on two accounts. Firstly, to orchestrate a change. Secondly, to have a chance at not only of the Arab voices being heard in the government, but also to possibly become the bridge, between Jewish Israel and the Arab neighbourhood in the future.
Veteran Arab MK Tibi has pledged Joint List’s support from outside for a potential Eisenkot-led government, saying, ‘I don’t want a ministry; we want change’. Mansour Abbas, the Islamist leader of the Ra’am Arab Party, too has declared that he will accept the four conditions set by opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot for joining the government.
There is also a sense among the Arab MKs that if they fail to join Eisonkot, they might face a similar political debacle as the pro-Kurdish HDP party in Turkey’s 2015 elections where the HDP gained enough seats to become kingmakers but struggled to turn their electoral success into political power.
Results go to President Herzog on November 4, the Knesset is sworn in on November 10, and a government-formation mandate follows. The outcome will define whether Israel becomes more inclusive or more divided
As a result of a deadlock, elections were re-conducted in Turkey in which the HDP lost votes and the ruling AKP regained its majority. Similarly, if coalition talks fail in Israel, fresh elections may dilute the current advantage that the Arab parties hold and their entire effort will be in vain.
Overall, the current elections in Israel have come at a critical inflection point in its history. To most people, there is a sense of fatigue and they are looking at life beyond conflict and a ‘state of security’.
A deadlocked Knesset will not only prolong the state of uncertainty but may give chance to Prime Minister Netanyahu (who will continue as the care-taker PM) to unleash yet another wave of conflict to try and achieve his unfulfilled political ambitions.
The large number of Arab MKs elected have ignited a separate and larger debate on how Israel wants to see itself as a state – a discriminatory state where a large non-Jewish citizenship is to be deliberately kept away from a legitimate voice of representation, or a vibrant democracy where the minority too has its representative voice in Israel’s future.
The results have given a chance to Israel to experiment with the latter and give the benefit of doubt to the Arab parties to work in the best interests of a future Israel. What Israel requires now is a period of internal healing and external reconciliation and consolidation, rather than another period of conflict without end. People have decided, now it is up to the politicians.
—–
The writer is a strategic affairs expert and security analyst. He is the author of book, “Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza’s Story of Unending War”. His X handle is @rajeev1421
The writer is a strategic affairs expert and security analyst. He is the author of book, "Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza's Story of Unending War". His X handle is @rajeev1421. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
