The entire world is tired of hearing President Donald Trump screaming victory and going back to war the next day. It is equally sick of listening to his claim that the US has destroyed Iran militarily or that Iranians have approached him for dialogue. Adding to ongoing illogical statements were his two contradictory comments, within a short time span. His first one was, “The Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran.” Shortly afterwards, he said, “I’ll become the guardian of the strait and will take reimbursement. We’re gonna get paid.”
Five hours later, he reversed again. This time, he said, “I have decided to replace the 20% US Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that various Gulf States will be making in the US. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them and their future.” This was because Trump realised that charging tolls was possibly unenforceable.
Trump’s constant change of stance is nothing but a sign of confusion on how to end the war, which is impacting the US economy, diverting military attention to a region which he can well avoid and a conflict he should never have started. Iran is not playing the game as per the US script, refusing to back down, making it difficult for Trump to find a way out. The US cannot deploy its navy in the strait, fearing Iranian attacks. It can only blockade the strait to prevent Iranian oil exports. Iran has been mocking every statement made by him. On toll, it promised to charge lesser amounts, implying it remains firm on extracting toll in the long term.
It was well known that the so-called Islamabad MoU inked on June 17, mentioning finalisation of an agreement with Iran within 60 days, was too much to ask for. Iran has never been in a rush in negotiations. Its political system is not akin to the US, where the leadership has limited time to show what it has achieved before its tenure ends. Conversely, the longer the talks, the more time for Iran to rebuild its military capabilities. A catch-22 situation for the US. The breakdown in trust between the two sides has been high, and bridging it will not be easy.
The Islamabad MoU, inked on June 17, regarding finalisation of an agreement with Iran within 60 days, was too much to expect. Iran has never been in a rush for negotiations. The longer the talks, the more time for Iran to rebuild its military capabilities. A catch-22 situation for the US
The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiated during President Obama’s tenure, was achieved without a single bullet being fired and at no cost to the US exchequer, though it took five years, whereas this conflict has already cost the US $200 billion, not counting damages to its assets in the Middle East. If these are included, it would be well beyond $500 billion. Every day the US war machinery remains deployed, including in imposing the blockade, is an added cost, which the US taxpayer is paying. Expecting Gulf nations to share the war cost is another of Trump’s dreams.
Iranian infrastructure could be destroyed but not the will of the people. The more the attacks, the closer they become to the regime. Current airstrikes are aimed at isolating the Bandar Abbas port region, possibly opening the door for a limited land operation, which the Iranians appear to expect. Whether the US risks a land invasion is to be seen.
Trump’s threat to take over Iranian oil, at the initial stages of the war, worked against the US and is now being exploited by the regime to garner public support. This was a mistake that cannot be reversed now. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is its last potent card to turn the negotiations in its favour. It cannot let that be lost to the US, and hence it attacks any ship that takes a route different from what it lays out.
No nation, especially an Islamic country, will ever surrender to Israel and its senior partner, the US, despite suffering losses. If it does, it would be the ultimate disgrace. Air power alone can never bring about a regime change. The US may destroy Iran’s military capabilities, but if, in retaliation, Iran successfully strikes one US ship, the reputation of the US sinks. The US has more credibility to lose than Iran.
Trump’s claims of having saved the world by denying Iran nuclear weapons have not been swallowed by any nation. The world seeks an end to the conflict, which is not in Trump’s hands unless Iran cooperates, as it would signal failure. His options are limited, and Iran is well aware of it
Trump’s threat to charge tolls has given credence to Iran to claim the same once the conflict ends. Iran has been demanding this since the war began. According to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), no state can levy charges for navigation in international waters, and the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway. Both the US and Iran are members of the IMO. Iran has now threatened to close Bab-el-Mandeb in conjunction with the Houthis and the al-Shabab of Somalia, in case the US attacks its infrastructure. It has members of its IRGC embedded with the Houthis. This could be a major blow to global shipping.
Despite Trump’s threats and warnings to NATO leaders at the recently concluded NATO summit in Turkey, not a single one has entered the conflict. This angered Trump as he realised he is alone in this misadventure. He has repeatedly mentioned that the strait is not used by the US but largely by Europe and Asia. Addressing the press alongside new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Trump said, “I don’t like the concept of a fee, but at the same time, it’s not fair that we’re protecting this Strait for the entire world.” Trump is in a bind because it was the war, which resulted in the closure of the straits, and reopening it falls on the US.
Trump’s claims of having saved the world by denying Iran nuclear weapons have not been swallowed by any nation. The world seeks an end to the conflict, which is not in Trump’s hands unless Iran cooperates, as it would signal failure. His options are limited, and Iran is well aware of it. Iran’s striking back at US military bases in the region is damaging the US military capabilities and power. Loss of US military personnel in these strikes is adding to pressure on Trump.
Iran’s rejection of the role of Pakistan as a mediator and walking out of the ‘Islamabad MoU’ is another blow to the entire process. The conflict cannot end with Trump’s current strategy. It needs negotiation by a nation that has the trust of all parties involved: the US, Iran and Israel
While Trump avoids comparing the present conflict with either Vietnam or Afghanistan, the burgeoning expenditure on maintaining forces, as well as destruction to US assets, is slowly reaching a similar figure. The war is nowhere near termination, and the US is already running out of missiles essential to stop Iran’s missile attacks.
Trump has still not achieved the victory he set out to, despite the US possessing overwhelming military power. He has no strategy to the resistance applied by Iran. In the next stage, in desperation, he could commence targeting civilian infrastructure, resulting in civilian casualties impacting the global reputation of US armed forces, which still suffer from the My Lai killings in Vietnam and the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school bombing in Minab, Iran, killing 168 school children. It would not desire another blot on its name.
The Iranian quagmire is Trump’s making, and he has to find a way out. Application of brute force is not the solution. Negotiations are a slow process, but must be followed through. While breaks in the ceasefire need to be addressed, keeping the door open for negotiations is equally important. Further, expecting talks to conclude within a month or two, after the ceasefire, is unrealistic. The fear of Iran rebuilding its military capabilities during the negotiation process is another factor impacting Trump’s decision-making.
Iran’s rejection of the role of Pakistan as a mediator and walking out of the ‘Islamabad MoU’ is another blow to the entire process. The conflict cannot end with Trump’s current strategy. It needs negotiation by a nation that has the trust of all parties involved: the US, Iran and Israel. This can only happen if all sides independently approach a possible mediator. Options appear limited. Will any nation take the bait if approached?
The writer is a strategic analyst and a motivator. He can be reached at @kakar_harsha. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
