India is making a strong entry into the profitable space industry by leveraging the geopolitical isolation of China and Russia. It aims at positioning itself as a dependable alternative to SpaceX – founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable colonisation of Mars – and is leaving no stones unturned to achieve this goal.

Last month, NewSpace India Ltd., a government-owned company, successfully launched 36 + 36 communication satellites for OneWeb Ltd. from an island located on India’s eastern coast. The launch not only saved OneWeb’s efforts at establishing a broadband Internet network worldwide, but also demonstrated India’s capabilities and aspirations in the field.

According to projections by Ernst & Young, the space economy, which includes the profitable business of launching satellites into orbit to provide high-speed Internet, is estimated to increase from $447 billion in 2020 to $600 billion by 2025.

For many years, Russia and China- with their established national space programmes – were the primary sources for satellite launches, alongside Musk’s SpaceX. However, due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and China’s strained relationship with the US, many potential customers are no longer able to access their services. In response, OneWeb looked towards India as an alternative after Russia prevented the launch of 36 of its spacecraft last year.

The Global Outlook

France’s Arianespace has faced difficulties in preparing its latest rocket for deployment, while Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc., a satellite launch firm associated with British billionaire Richard Branson, announced that it would halt operations indefinitely due to a launch mishap in January.

Dallas Kasaboski, a principal analyst at Northern Sky Research, a space research and consulting firm told Bloomberg that, if SpaceX was not an option as it was at capacity – too busy or too expensive – alternatives must be considered. However, China cannot be considered an alternative as it is unable to collaborate with North America, and the US is responsible for most of the demand. Kasaboski says India has made significant progress in terms of its political situation.

Many satellite operators are not considering Chinese rockets due to increasing apprehensions about Beijing’s access to Western technology. However, India has strengthened its ties with the US and other regional powers, such as Australia and Japan. Moreover, the launches by India are less expensive compared to those by other competitors.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative focuses on developing the space industry and establishing India as a leading destination for technological advancement. To achieve this goal, his administration has been working towards creating a more startup-friendly environment in India’s space agency.

According to D Radhakrishnan, chairman and managing director of NewSpace, the demand for heavy-lift launchers that are needed is very high. NewSpace was established in 2019 as the commercial division of the India Space Research Organisation (ISRO). He also mentioned that there might be a shortage of these launchers due to the high demand.

Taking on China

The launch of 36 satellites by NewSpace for OneWeb in October 2022 and in March 2023 was successful. This development is expected to boost India’s competitiveness at the global level. Additionally, NewSpace is increasing production of the LVM3 – the biggest rocket developed indigenously in India.

According to Neil Masterson, CEO of OneWeb, NewSpace has the potential of becoming a major commercial launch provider. In the previous financial year, the company earned Rs 17 billion in revenue and Rs 3 billion in profit. NewSpace also offered satellite launch services to 52 global clients.

India’s aerospace industry is poised for substantial expansion. The government has relaxed regulations for private satellite and rocket firms, enabling them to conduct autonomous space operations rather than being exclusively dependent on ISRO. These reforms enable startups to utilise ISRO’s facilities, including launch pads and laboratories. By 2025, India’s satellite launch services are anticipated to increase nearly two-fold to $1 billion in value.

According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, India currently lags behind China in terms of earth-orbiting satellites ownership. As of March 2020, China owned 13.6% of such satellites, while India owned only 2.3%. So, India still has a long way to go to catch up with China in this respect.

According to the Global Times, a newspaper supported by the Communist Party of China, China carried out 64 launches in the previous year. Although many private companies in China are still in the process of creating their rockets, a handful of them have been able to conduct orbital launches independently. For instance, in March 2022, GalaxySpace, a startup based in Beijing, launched six communication satellites into low-earth orbit, while another Chinese company, called Galactic Energy, also based in the capital city, launched five more in January.

Last year, India had five launches of a similar nature, all of which were carried out by either ISRO or NewSpace. In contrast, only a small number of such launches are scheduled for 2023.

Ensuring Reliability

As per astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell from the Center for Astrophysics, which is jointly operated by Harvard University and the Smithsonian Institution, India’s rockets have faced problems with reliability in the past. McDowell notes that India’s success rate in recent years is around 70%, which is significantly lower than the success rates achieved by rockets from the US, Europe, Russia, or China in the 1990s. According to him, launching in India involves accepting a greater risk of failure, and this should be taken into consideration while making the decision.

Despite these circumstances, India is performing admirably. India continues to be a favoured option for economical launches, with an orbiter to Mars being sent in 2013 at a cost one-tenth that of a NASA probe launched the same year. According to McDowell, there are very few players in the market who possess a low-cost launch vehicle with a high payload capacity. Neither China, nor Russia is among them, he clarified.

-The writer is a Defence and Aerospace Analyst. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda