After the recent terrorist attack at Pahalgam, war clouds are on the horizon. There is a visible anger in the nation which demands an early retaliation against Pakistan for this brutal killing of innocent civilians. To some extent, the Indian government has initiated some diplomatic actions, including the Indus Water Treaty being put in abeyance, but these are mostly symbolic and will not satisfy the enormity of the situation after this dastardly act.
It goes without saying that words now need to be translated into action which should assuage the anger of the people. It leads us therefore to foresee military options as were exercised earlier when Uri or Pulwama happened. However, this time we could see a much aggressive response from India which may directly target the Pakistani Army after the inflammatory political speech made by their COAS recently in a Pakistan Overseas Forum. It therefore becomes imperative to critically analyse the overall strategy, capabilities and limitations of the Pakistani Army and the entire calculus in case we get into a full-scale conflict. It needs to be understood that in spite of what transpires economically for Pakistan, its armed forces have kept pace with modernising and upgrading its skills and equipment. Therefore, we should not be complacent to underestimate their resolve and capabilities.
Understanding the Pakistani Army
The Pakistani Army’s strategic orientation is shaped by its historical conflicts with India, its evolving regional security environment and its use of asymmetric and hybrid tactics. Since its inception, Pakistan has placed its military at the centre of its national security policy. With India as its primary security concern and Kashmir in particular, the Pakistani Army has evolved a distinct way of war, blending conventional military capabilities with asymmetric tools including non-state actors and psychological warfare which they have imbibed from their Chinese friends. This synthesis of kinetic and non-kinetic means gives rise to a strategic culture designed to offset India’s superiority while advancing Pakistan’s core geo-political objectives, particularly regarding Kashmir as well as influencing the neighbourhood in the Indian sub-continent.
The Pakistani Army maintains a robust defensive posture and credible deterrence against India largely augmented by its conventional forces, nuclear doctrine and asymmetric capabilities. Over the years with the help of China and Turkey, they have acquired better aircraft, tanks, submarines, missiles and drones and certainly will not be a pushover. In addition to that, they have defensive depth in the Northern and Central sectors reinforced by terrain advantages and logistical networks.
The Pakistani Army is organised into regional corps and manages its 5.6 lakh active force trained in rapid deployment and offensive manoeuvre in a conventional conflict. Its training is focussed on combined arms warfare much like the Indian Army, exploiting operational gaps through armoured thrusts, particularly in the plains of Punjab.
The Pakistani Army maintains a robust defensive posture and credible deterrence against India largely augmented by its conventional forces, nuclear doctrine and asymmetric capabilities. Over the years with the help of China and Turkey, it has acquired better aircraft, battle tanks, submarines, missiles and drones and certainly will not be a pushover
However, the major areas of concern for the Pakistani Army are its ageing equipment, limited indigenous capabilities and heavy dependence on Chinese and Turkish defence imports with many reports of malfunction and poor quality as well as suspected operational reliability.
The Pakistani Army’s partnership with China has enabled significant military modernisation including co-development of platforms like J-17 fighters and enhancement of ISR capabilities. Drones, artificial intelligence and space-based assets are being increasingly incorporated into their strategic planning.
Pakistan Armed Forces Latest Acquisitions
The Pakistan Armed Forces have been greatly bolstered by China and Turkey in terms of sophisticated state-of-the-art military equipment.
China’s Contributions
JF-17 Thunder: Co-developed by Pakistan and China (Chengdu Aircraft Corporation and PAC Kamra). Block III variant has AESA radar and advanced weapons.
FC-32(J-35AE): Discussions are underway to acquire this 5th-generation stealth fighter from China to replace legacy aircraft.
Hangar Class Submarines: Eight submarines being built with Chinese help, four of them in Pakistan and four in China. The second submarine was launched in April 2024.
VT-4 MBT (Haider Tank): Modern Chinese tanks inducted into Pakistani armoured formations with enhanced fire control and protection.
Z-10 ME Attack Helicopters: Pakistan plans to procure and assemble these helicopters locally with Chinese.
Turkey’s Contributions
MILGEM Corvettes: Four stealth corvettes under a joint project, built in Turkey and Pakistan. PNS Babur already commissioned
Aerospace and Drone Technology: Bayrakhtar TB2 and Akinci UAVs. Pakistan has acquired these MALE and HALE UAVs for ISR and strike operations.
TF-X (KAAN) Fighter Jet Program: Joint production facility for the 5th generation stealth fighter in Pakistan.
Missile Technology Cooperation: GOKTUG Air to Air Missiles: Shared technology for short-range (BOZDOGAN) and BVR (GOKDOGAN) missiles under a bilateral agreement.
India and Pakistan may target each other’s strategic areas such as airfields, logistics dumps, command and control centres, and communication centres. India’s Rafale and S-400 systems will largely limit Pakistan’s air strikes. Sea skirmishes could begin with a blockade of Karachi port, with both navies testing each other with warships, submarines and missiles
Pakistan’s Strategic Military Doctrine
Pakistan’s military doctrine is inherently India-centric shaped by past conflicts including the 1999 Kargil conflict. This adversarial posture has led to the development of a doctrine built on deterrence, manoeuvre warfare and strategic depth. Post 1998, Pakistan’s nuclear strategy shifted from minimal deterrence to full spectrum deterrence incorporating tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to deter a range of conventional and sub-conventional threats. This posture reflects an intent to counter potential Indian initiatives like the Cold Start Doctrine with layered deterrence options.
Asymmetric Warfare and Role of Non-State Actors
A critical feature of Pakistan’s way of war is the strategic use of irregular warfare and proxy actors. The military-intelligence nexus, especially through the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has cultivated relationships with terrorist groups as force multipliers in Kashmir. Groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad have been instrumental in Pakistan’s sub-conventional strategy, offering deniability while keeping India militarily and politically off balance. Pakistan has embraced hybrid warfare as an essential element of its warcraft, which gives them rich dividends.
Psychological and Narrative Warfare
Pakistan leverages information warfare through state-backed media, global diplomatic channels and diaspora advocacy to shape perceptions, especially around Kashmir. The information domain is increasingly viewed as a battlespace with disinformation and perception management tools integrated into broader strategic planning.
War Gaming a Possible India-Pakistan Conflict Scenario
The war-gaming a possible India-Pakistan conflict scenario requires careful consideration of strategic objectives, force postures, geography, nuclear thresholds and the potential for escalation. Let’s take the present situation of the terrorist attack at Pahalgam killing 28 innocent Hindu civilians.
Initial Indian Response would be a diplomatic offensive to announce measures such as suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, stoppage of travel of people between the two countries and diplomatic isolation of Pakistan. This could be followed by air and missile strikes targeting terror infrastructure in PoK and Pakistani Punjab.
Pakistan’s reaction would be to mobilise its air defences, and counter strikes near Poonch and Rajouri sectors. This would be followed by heightened alert of nuclear forces, and public statements about ‘deterrence readiness’. There would be international pressure from the USA, China and Russia to de-escalate. If this doesn’t happen it could lead us to the next phase of a limited conventional conflict.
In the limited conventional conflict, India could launch shallow swift-armoured incursions through Punjab and Rajasthan aiming to destroy Pakistani command posts and supply lines without crossing nuclear red lines. Simultaneously, Special Forces are launched behind LoC to neutralise terror camps.
Pakistan’s response would be rapid deployment of mechanised divisions from 1 Corps. Counter attacks in the southern Rajasthan sector to divert Indian attention and use of long-range artillery and drones to hit ammunition depots and logistics hubs.
Both the countries would use their air power to target strategic areas such as airfields, logistics dumps, command and control centres, communication centres etc and look for air superiority and favourable air situation in some areas. India’s Rafale and S-400 systems would largely limit Pakistan’s air strikes. Sea skirmishes could commence with a blockade of Karachi port near the Arabian Sea, with both navies testing each other through warships, submarines and missiles.
It seems unlikely that there would be an early thaw in India-Pakistan relations. However, war would be the last option as both nations may not desire this escalation. As we await the Indian military response, much would depend on the type of riposte by Pakistan which could dictate the future course of events. We could see challenging times ahead
Concurrently cyber-attacks by both nations would take place to target banking systems, media outlets and air and rail networks. Nuclear posturing could also commence with testing of short-range missiles by both countries.
Ultimately, we could see a ceasefire being brokered by Russia, the UAE, or the USA.
Conclusion
It seems unlikely that there would be an early thaw in India-Pakistan relations. The Indian Army has the necessary might to take on the Pakistani Army having superiority in manpower, tanks, artillery, aircraft, warships and submarines. However, war would be the last option as both nations may not desire this escalation. As we await the Indian Military response, much would then depend on the type of riposte by Pakistan which could dictate the future course of events. We could see challenging times ahead.
-The author retired as Major General, Army Ordnance Corps, Central Command, after 37 years of service. A management doctorate and expert on defence modernisation, he is the author of four books, including the Amazon bestseller “Breaking the Chinese Myth,” and a frequent media commentator. He is affiliated with several leading defence and strategic studies institutions in New Delhi. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
