“The United States would not repeat the ‘mistakes’ it made with China two decades ago by granting the same economic advantages that allowed Beijing to rise as a major commercial rival,” said Christofer Landau, US Deputy Secretary of State in March 2026.
There is a basic flaw in US Policy on India. It has learnt the wrong lesson from the rise of China as its military and economic competitor. It is a wrong assumption which led it to wrong actions. Add to it Chinese strongman Xi Jinping’s deliberately announced policy to dethrone the United States from its ‘numero uno’ position in global affairs by 1949. Resultantly, two largest democracies of the world are now poised at the two other ends of the global spectrum.
Consequently, the US has been constantly planning and scheming to stop India from becoming ‘another China’. In simple terms, its deep state is involved in stopping India’s rise as an “Economic and Military Powerhouse” in world affairs. It is not only the US deep state but also its official administration, irrespective of which party has been in power. The US actions show that its objectives on India are crystal clear. India should entertain NO misgivings on them. In its hurry to achieve immediate goals, the US has drifted from its ultimate good.
The US decline is unquestionable. There have been indications of it. Vietnam War was the first sign of its military power’s inability to fight a new mode of conflict. Another warning of its military’s inability came from the failure of Operation Eagle Claw, which was launched on April 24, 1980, to rescue 52 US embassy staff members from Iran.
Unfortunately, the US is forgetting the basic lesson of human history: No one can stop the event whose time has come. Human history bears testimony that civilisations have risen and fallen. There are various reasons. One of the foremost causes of their fall has been constant wars, violence and military conflicts. The resultant effect is its people becoming wary of violence and conflict. This ends up in the softening of its people due to affluence acquired by looting from others. Thus, people turn easy-going and “un-soldier-like”. This is the natural justice of the decay of civilisations.
Therefore, the US should have known two historical facts: first, that its fall is certain, and second, it cannot stop India’s rise whose time has come to be a global power. The US could slow down its decline by being genuinely friendly with India. But it has slowly pushed India away from it by its acts of omission and commission.
Under the Trump administration, India has been denied the transfer of the GE F414 with 100% technology. The United States has offered only 80% transfer of technology. Besides, the deal faces hurdles or delays concerning cost escalations, pricing adjustments, and final commercial contract negotiations.
The US decline is unquestionable. There have been indications of it. Vietnam War was the first sign of its military power’s inability to fight a new mode of conflict. Another warning of its military’s inability came from the failure of Operation Eagle Claw, which was launched on April 24, 1980, to rescue 52 US embassy staff members from Iran. The US does not realise that technology is a force multiplier, but it cannot replace the human spirit of courage and valour.
The 60-hour war with Saddam Hussein of Iraq again gave it the wrong lesson that it can subdue others with high-end technological weapons. When the other side is foolish enough to gauge your weaknesses, you can boast of victories. However, the US made a policy correction in the 1990s, which led to the collapse of its primary rival, the Soviet Union. Accordingly, the US realised the folly of the Afghanistan war (2001-2021) and pulled out, though in a “not-so-honourable” manner.
US actions in India’s neighbourhood are also not palatable. Regime changes in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have created tensions with India. As it is a US surrogate, Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India. It has already fought four wars with India with US weapons and technology. Besides, US minces no words on taking Pakistan’s side.
Afghanistan war only showed that technology alone cannot win modern wars. However, ‘Venezuela action’ again led it on a wrong path. And now the US-Iran war has again driven home a lesson, so far dormant in its military minds, that no enemy can be defeated without ‘Boots on Ground’. Technology can create havoc, but it cannot destroy the human spirit of a determined enemy.
With this background of the US acts of omission and commission, it is worthwhile to understand US policy on India, both official and its deep state. Its only purpose is to prevent India’s technological and economic growth and try a ‘regime change’ to subdue India as a compliant state. Therefore, while its deep state was busy with covert operations to overthrow the present regime, its officialdom is busy creating hurdles in the transfer of technology and creating physical resistance by creating hostile environs in its neighbourhood.
The US deep state has been desperately trying to seek a ‘regime change’ in India. Its toolkit programmes include seducing Indian youth (Gen Z, they say) to revolt against the current Indian government. The Cockroach Janta Party is allegedly part of a toolkit programme.
As late as 2024, US officialdom had put India under the Computer Tier-3 ’eligible countries’ list in section 740.7(d) of title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations to deny high technology to India. However, in 2024, the Joe Biden administration enacted the “Technology Exports to India Act”, which aimed to facilitate the sale of high-performance computers and related equipment to India and strengthen United States-India technology cooperation. But Joe Biden is history now and the act remains a showpiece on paper only to fool India. Nothing concrete has happened.
It is now the Trump administration, and it has its own aims and objectives. India has been denied the transfer of the GE F414 with 100% technology. It has offered to only 80% transfer of technology. The deal is stuck there because the real catch lies in the remaining 20%. Besides, the deal faces hurdles or delays concerning cost escalations, pricing adjustments, and final commercial contract negotiations. Thus, India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas MK2 and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) remain in suspended animation. This is just one example of dilly-dallying by US officialdom. There are many other matters.
The US is involved in creating internal problems in India by clandestinely supporting such organisations as SFJ (Sikhs for Justice), who spearhead the Khalistan movement. Its head, Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, lives in the US and organises anti-India agitations. The US dismisses it as freedom of expression.
US officialdom’s actions in India’s neighbourhood are also not palatable. Regime changes in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have created tensions with India. As it is a US surrogate, Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India. It has already fought four wars with India with US weapons and technology. Besides, the US minces no words about taking Pakistan’s side. The controversial statements by President Donald Trump, post-Operation Sindoor, show how important Field Marshal Asim Munir was to the US.
The US deep state has been desperately trying to seek a ‘regime change’ in India. Its toolkit programmes include seducing Indian youth (Gen Z, they say) to revolt against the current Indian government. The Cockroach Janta Party is allegedly part of a toolkit programme. Then, unfavourable reports in Indian and foreign media, such as the Henderson Brooks report, are aimed at India’s economic growth. Then there are Indian collaborators of people like George Soros, who has claimed to have set aside $1 billion to seek change of present Indian Prime Minister, who is considered as the kingpin of India’s economic growth, military power and diplomatic success.
Definitely, India cannot challenge the US but quietly slip into the opposite camp without much fanfare. And the tripartite engagement of Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in New Delhi should tell the US that RIC (Russia, India, China), if it comes up, would hasten its decline.
It is such collaborators of the US deep state that the Indian Prime Minister (PM) had thundered from the ramparts of Red Fort to declare them as, ‘Dimaagi Naxals’ (Scheming Naxals) — ‘Naxal’ is a term used for leftist and separatist organisations who had taken up arms against the Indian state. Then, the other day, the Indian PM gave them another name: ‘Naraaz Fufa’. (Annoyed Uncle — husband of father’s sister) — who invariably denounce and criticise every good thing of the government.
Again, the US is involved in creating internal problems in India by clandestinely supporting such organisations as SFJ (Sikhs for Justice), who spearhead the Khalistan movement. Its head, Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, lives in the US and organises anti-India agitations. The US dismisses it as freedom of expression. Besides, US money to many Indian NGOs is aimed at clandestine operations in India. Ford Foundation is at the forefront, and it is alleged to have given funds to Indian politicians like Arvind Kejriwal. Even some of the Indian journalists and intellectuals are on its payroll. Their job is to write articles unfavourable to the Indian government. Even former RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan, is accused of having connections with George Soros. The arrests of an alleged CIA agent Mathew Vandyke and Ukrainian intel operatives in Manipur in May 2026 show what the ongoing game of the US.
In conclusion, one can say that the US was desperately trying to defy the Law of Nature and Rule of Human History – which is Every Rise has a Fall, and No one can stop the rise of someone whose time has come! Therefore, the US, instead of slowing down its decline to enjoy its supremacy for some more time, is hastening its decline by wasting efforts to checkmate India.
Why do I say this? Primarily, India has realised this stance of the US. And US Deputy Secretary of State Christofer Landau left no doubt when he openly said this in New Delhi in March 2026. So, what should India do? Definitely, it cannot challenge the US but quietly slip into the opposite camp without much fanfare. And coming tripartite engagement of Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in New Delhi should tell the US that RIC (Russia, India, China), if it comes up, would hasten its decline.
The US needs India, and not vice versa. It can still retrace its steps before it is too late. But the US deep state and officialdom think otherwise. After Operation Sindoor, if the US think tank had properly analysed, it should have known how fast India is becoming a technological powerhouse.
The ‘big three’ are already considering discarding the SWIFT system of global trade in favor of a bilateral system in which they pay each other in local currencies. If it comes up, then the US dollar will lose its global domination — which has been the real reason for the US being ‘numero uno’ in the world. Due to the US-Iran war, the US debt has gone up to $40 trillion. Once SWIFT is annulled, then the US loses its economic clout.
The Iran war has already shown that the US military is not as powerful as it used to be. Its aircraft carriers, hitherto a massive symbol of US naval power, cannot enter the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot ensure an uninterrupted oil supply to the US. Iran’s defiance shows that the US is no longer a military power, once feared by all. Further, it is also proof that other nations are now matching the US in war technology.
Finally, the US needs India, and not vice versa. It can still retrace its steps before it is too late. But US deep state and officialdom think otherwise. After Operation Sindoor, if US think tanks had properly analysed, they should have known how fast India is becoming a technological powerhouse. Notwithstanding Pakistan’s propaganda, India has done extensive damage to Pakistan and denied it the same to Pakistan effectively. India’s integrated air defence system, Akash Teer, is the best in the world. The US cannot checkmate it. India is on the march.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
