Air Marshal Dhiraj Kukreja’s book ‘China-An Enigma’ provides in-depth, unique and interesting insights into China’s history, its rise and why it continuously remains an enigma. A summary and excerpts from the book:
The Peoples’ Republic of China – PRC – or simply, China – represents the most serious global threat of the 21st century. The reasons are plentiful and varied. The world leadership has been viewing China’s growth for the last three to four decades, and been gullible enough to swallow the sweet talk of the Chinese leadership that its growth, be it economic or military, was peaceful. The Chinese leadership was only “hiding its capabilities and biding its time”, while the world leadership was hoping that the Chinese economic growth would encourage China to open its doors to Western ideas, accept the Western way of life, and have a political changeover by discarding its communist ideology and accepting democratic governance. How flawed was their thinking!
China, historically, has looked only as far as the Great Wall and seen it as a good defence against land incursions by foreign forces. To China, anything outside the Wall was “barbarian”. With the passage of time, China alternated between isolationism and open-door interactions with other nations, thus arousing the rulers’ interest in the high seas. Nevertheless, its prime objectives continued to be: protection of its sovereignty, recovery of lost territory, reunification of territories lost through unequal treaties, while modernising and technologically developing the country. What was not spelt out was the avenging of the “century of humiliation”, and claiming new waters/islands in the Pacific Ocean with their riches both above and below the surface. The new interest in the maritime domain led to a slow but stealthy transformation in the mindset of the leadership, who worked towards achieving this aim, but surreptitiously. The current leader, Xi Jinping, assumed the post of General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012 and as the President of the country in 2013. In his first interaction with the media, he announced China’s intentions to the world and began acting to achieve its objectives, shedding the surreptitious shroud.
The task of making sense of China’s aspirations has been compounded as the world moved into the 21st century, and more ever since Xi Jinping took over the reins in 2012, with no indications to hand over the nation to any successor, as scheduled. During his tenure China has seen some significant changes in the political system, new laws and regulations being implemented and the Constitution being amended – all at an amazingly fast pace – affecting the established political and economic practices. For Example: The earlier governments appreciated the role of non-government organisations in the socio-political and economic development of the country, but the present government has restricted their activities, branding them as an adverse influence. Another contradiction is that while Xi Jinping has encouraged globalisation, he has restricted the free flow of capital, ideas, goods, and information. Even within China, major entrepreneurs have been restricted in the conduct of their businesses and their movements curbed!
What is Xi Jinping’s fear? It is difficult to tell, although there is a plethora of information that is available from analysts all over the world, commenting upon the many policy announcements, and the new laws that have been promulgated. Too much information has the tendency to burden our comprehension, since some of what we hear from China is inconsistent too. On one day, we read about China emphasising the rule of law, while the very next day, there are reports of ad hoc arrests of over 200 dissenters and lawyers, without following any due legal process. Information being made available from official sources in China is, quite often, either incomplete or inaccurate.
China in the 21st century is no longer a “rising power”, but has grown as a competitor to the US, which had gotten used to having its way in a unipolar world after the end of the Cold War. China has emerged as a global actor, affecting the liberal world order in nearly every region and on every major issue. China has developed the capabilities, to quite an extent, to alter the international geopolitical architecture to meet Xi’s ambitions to dictate the world order on China’s terms. It still has a long way to go! Whether it does this peacefully, or as a belligerent, is the attendant question, since capabilities and intentions have to be dealt with separately.
The spread of the Covid-19 virus pandemic has added to the confusion. Did it originate from the Wuhan laboratories or the Wuhan wet market or from some other source? Did China intentionally delay informing the WHO and other nations of the severity of its spread when it was first detected in 2019? Whatever the answers to such questions that are being asked the world over, the pandemic has affected, not just the economies of all nations, even the daily lives of each citizen, of every nation, have been affected. Xi Jinping has confined himself within the close vicinity of Beijing, making an odd visit to surrounding provinces without physically meeting any world leader for almost two years! (The first physical meet between Xi and a few world leaders took place in February 2022, during the opening of the Winter Olympics.)
What is the shape China will take beyond 2022? “Crystal-ball predictions are very difficult to make, and, at times, turn out to be incorrect. Xi Jinping, on his taking over as General Secretary of the CCP and, subsequently, as the President of the country, made the task of foretelling the future of China, somewhat easier.” The CCP has just celebrated its centenary in 2021, and “has a membership, today, of over 90 million, and yet, despite its common ideology, it means differently to different people. The variations in its recognition are also the main cause of its success,” weathering many a storm that proved many a prophecy of its demise as wrong. The CCP is, hence, very likely to continue for many years ahead.
Xi Jinping has played his moves to ensure his continuance beyond November 2022, when he should be relinquishing office. He has, methodically, “eradicated any opposition to him and his policies”; discontent, if any, is suppressed since he has a firm hold over the CCP, the military and in the political institutions. “While critics and activists have closed-door debates and rumours do thrive, but they lack credibility. To quell the rumours and criticisms on social media and elsewhere, the state-run propaganda machine manages public opinion, be it about the vaccines, the abolition of the presidential term-limit or the most recent handling of the Covid pandemic.” Threats of punishment to cadres of the CCP, of suspect loyalties, abound.
“Globally too, China has not shown workable solutions, except where its own interests are at stake and can be easily advanced, except in nations where China is involved in infrastructure and economic development through the BRI, or security cooperation to curtail terrorist attacks through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It has not been able to control (willingly?) North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, or take the lead in the vacuum created by Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies. Nevertheless, with Xi Jinping at the helm and all set for a third term in November 2022, China can succeed in the globalised world, only if it does not shut its doors to new ideas and influences from the outside.”
“Even as the years pass, and some answers emerge, China will continue to remain what it is now – an enigma!”
-Air Marshal Dhiraj Kukreja is an IAF veteran. His book “China – An Enigma” is getting released next week.
