Toulouse, France. Airbus anticipates that total demand for aviation services will double from 2026 reaching an estimated value of more than US$420 billion by 2045. These services, which sustain the aviation sector’s robustness, will grow at a 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), supporting an increasing world aircraft fleet of 45,550 by 2045. Over the same 20 year period, passenger numbers will double to 10 billion.
This will lead to a cumulative need for 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1,050,000 cabin crew, totalling more than 2.44 million additional skilled people.
Digital solutions and connectivity underpin all sectors of the services market supporting airlines to improve operational efficiency, reduce disruptions such as delays and cancellations, maintenance agility and real-time connectivity to meet passenger expectations for a seamless journey.
Airbus’ GSF outlines six key services segments:
- Off-Wing Maintenance (2045: US$217 billion, +3.7% CAGR) – Doubling in value driven by an increasing number of shop visits due to aging and growing global fleet. Material supply is significant reflecting demand for parts support and repair.
- Maintenance Operations Support (2045: US$104 billion, +4.3% CAGR) – The addition of this new cluster includes inventory provision on time and on quality and engineering support to ensure continued airworthiness and aircraft reliability.
- On-Wing Maintenance (2045: US$36 billion, +2.8% CAGR) – Covering light inspections to heavy checks and growing in line with the overall growing global fleet.
- Digital & Connectivity (2045: US$27 billion, +5.3% CAGR) – The fastest-growing market, this is expected to triple over the next two decades.
- Modifications & Upgrades (2045: US$21 billion, +2.6% CAGR) – Upgrades of older aircraft through cabin retrofits and modern technology integration.
- Training (2045: US$17 billion, +3.1% CAGR) – Addressing a massive new workforce requirement, the industry must intensify efforts to attract and train new talent.
“As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle. By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence,” highlights Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus.
In the next 20 years, Europe & CIS, North America and China will remain the largest services markets in terms of total demand, while Asia (Asia-Pacific, China and South Asia) is projected to be the fastest growing. The Airbus GSF is aircraft agnostic, focusing on passenger jets with a capacity exceeding 100 seats and freighters with a payload capability above 10 tonnes.
