Threats & Confrontation: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent visit to New Delhi brought in greater understanding and partnership promises at the summit level. The details of the conversation ranged in width and depth reflecting ever-growing closer ties, once described as the most natural relationship in Asia. Barring the Ukraine war, both sides displayed a clear understanding of each other on a plethora of issues. What drew greater interest was the discussion on regional security dynamics and the need to ensure international laws are fully adhered to by all. Needless to say, the elephant in the room was China. While India has shared its concern over the recent Chinese behaviour, it’s a much more serious affair for Japan.
China initially started with the movement of its fishing vessels near the Japanese-claimed and-administered island of Senkaku in the East China Sea, which slowly grew into aggressive patrolling by its coast guard. China further upped the ante by keeping its regular presence in the waters around the island. The presence was soon overtaken by the issue of a warning to Japanese fishing vessels, and in no time Chinese patrol boats started confronting Japanese patrol craft. While all these developments were being monitored by Tokyo it didn’t gather the depth of the threat initially and took it as an isolated act, which it thought can be managed with diplomatic protests. China clearly was playing a bigger game and categorically knew its objectives. China didn’t deceive, it simply out-manoeuvred Japan!
Deteriorating Security
If one cannot defend its sovereignty, chances are very slim that it will be respected for its kindness. Today’s fierce global order is completely shaped by the power that one wields, while the economy is a key ingredient, it’s no substitute for the raw strength of a nation. The moral of the story Japan can learn from its impoverished neighbour North Korea. Power is magnetic it just attracts and Japan after decades of domestic confusion appeared to shed its post-World War 2 self-defence-only approach, enshrined in Article 9 of its constitution. Japan was among the few nations in the world that have declared self-defence armed forces. It didn’t keep any aggressive armaments or develop offensive military capabilities. It kept its defence spending hovering around 1 per cent of its GDP for decades. And stated its defence forces were only executing policing duty for guarding Japanese borders.
Though Japan had security assurances from the US post-1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, the existing state of Japanese capability was always going to be inadequate in face of multiple security threats that it is faced with. China’s repeated intrusions, a hostile North Korea, China-Russia military exercise which is claimed to have violated Japanese ADIZ and Russian operations in Ukraine, especially in the backdrop of its unresolved territorial disputes over its northern territories have gravely undermined Japanese sovereignty. It has not only felt tremors of Chinese hostile presence but Russian missile deployments in the Kuril Islands near its northern territories have sent jitters down the Japanese security establishment.
The trajectory of incidents is clearly indicating towards military confrontation in the very near future and Japan in no way seems prepared for it. It won’t be an exaggeration to say the Chinese conduct was driven by history and the perceived damage Japan has done as an occupation force. Japan playing host to US 7th Fleet at its Yokosuka base hasn’t been lost on China which is contesting US presence across its neighbourhood almost on a daily basis. China saw an opening and they decided to hammer their way through.
Awakening?
Japan’s rush to alter its course from Self Defence Forces to regular armed forces was largely expected. Its formal announcement on 16 December 2022 followed by the unveiling of a $52 billion defence budget mostly focussed on procurements of offensive capabilities. Japan not only wants to shore up its armed forces to a respectable state to challenge the Chinese in the waters around but wants it to happen real quick. It’s a restless feeling inside Japanese security institutions. The war in Ukraine is continuously being analysed with an Asian prism, where China would replace Russia. The impact of that would be enormous on the continent and Japan realises that. It clearly understands safeguarding territory has to be its own business and cannot be really outsourced and that is the war lessons from Ukraine.
The visit of the Japanese PM to Kiev was no coincidence, there is a larger message behind the whole exercise. First, comments of the Japanese disapproval of Russian actions were dropped in Delhi, which has so far appeared reluctant to get drawn into the Russia-Ukraine debate and the next step was to land in Kiev and get some first-hand understanding of how to stand up to a Superpower. Japanese weren’t the first to visit Kiev, this trend has been seen for some time now. Countries whose Heads of State have visited Ukraine are in a shaky state themselves whether in Europe or Asia. It won’t be surprising to see Taiwanese leadership calling on Zelensky soon. That also explains the Japanese urgency in developing strong military bonding with India, a country world has come to recognise as a centre of stability during this global turbulence.
New Matrix of Realignment
India shouldn’t be faulted to sense an opportunity here. The strengthening of the Japanese security paradigm will undoubtedly make the India-Japan coordination much more relevant and aligned with the current geostrategic reality. India itself looking to expand its influence further east thanks to Chinese abrasiveness, has been making an almost futile effort with its eastern neighbourhood including ASEAN countries to get them on board. Barring a few isolated understandings, as a grouping ASEAN continues to play a diplomatic balancing act. In an unprecedented move, India invited all the ASEAN leaders as its Chief Guests for the 2018 Republic Day aimed at giving a visible signal and its willingness to firmly step up as a relevant counterforce to Chinese intimidation. Signalling is important in international relationships to make both your friends and foes clear of your intent and capability. It’s a strong driving force of international diplomacy. But ASEAN appeared too meek and divided by muddle to support India’s strong gesture, instead, it opted for a safer option to please all.
However, with Japan, it will be different dynamics. Japan has that calibre and strength of history behind it. The theatre of operations for both will be mutually complementary and operationally overlapping. While India is progressively expanding its operational reach towards Western Pacific, especially with the recent commissioning of indigenous carrier INS Vikrant it intends to strongly propagate the principle of Good Order at Sea. Something which critically addresses the Japanese concern and this is the precise reason for the Japanese leadership’s keenness to press ahead on the dual front of military modernisation and deepening of the security relationship with India.
As Japanese security experts see this evolving picture, it’s only India in the region which has the necessary wherewithal and military prowess to keep China under check. What makes this emerging security alignment promising is the groundswell of goodwill and trust both countries carry for each other. But even good dreams have their limitations of reality. It’s time to replace the present symbolism in relationship with a strong security commitment which is unambiguous and forthright, and spells out the contours of responses during highly complex security threats that will be key for a reassuring future ahead!
–The writer has varied experience in security paradigm and is a keen follower of international geopolitics. He is also the author of popular blog site (geostrat.in) on geo-strategic affairs. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
