As the world watches the shifting tides of global politics, one of the most intriguing developments is Indonesia’s potential role in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc, especially as the international order faces the rise of populist leaders akin to Donald Trump. The global economic architecture is being reshaped with the entry of new political forces, and Indonesia’s position in this transformation is becoming crucial. With Donald Trump 2.0 emerging in various parts of the world, including the United States, Indonesia must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape that could either marginalise or elevate its influence in the BRICS.
Indonesia has long been one of Southeast Asia’s largest and most dynamic economies, boasting the largest economy in the region. With a population exceeding 270 million, it is the world’s fourth most populous nation, which gives it a significant demographic advantage. As the global economy shifts towards a multipolar structure, Indonesia’s economic weight makes it a prime candidate for joining a bloc like BRICS, which is increasingly looking to balance Western dominance with a broader representation of emerging economies.
However, Indonesia’s path to BRICS membership is not without its challenges. One of the key dynamics influencing global politics today is the rise of populist nationalism, epitomised by the political shift in the US under Donald Trump’s leadership. This shift towards isolationism, protectionism, and ‘America First’ policies has reverberated with countries such as Brazil, Hungary, and even parts of Europe experiencing similar trends. Indonesia will need to assess whether it will align itself with these nationalist currents or continue to pursue its long-standing policy of non-alignment, which has been central to its foreign relations strategy since its independence. In fact, it has consistently advocated for an open, rules-based international order, and its membership in BRICS could signal a shift towards a new economic and diplomatic alignment that champions multilateralism in opposition to the protectionist rhetoric of leaders like Trump.
Indonesia has long been one of Southeast Asia’s largest and most dynamic economies, boasting the largest economy in the region. With a population exceeding 270 million, it is the world’s fourth most populous nation, which gives it a demographic advantage
One key aspect of Indonesia’s relevance in BRICS lies in its strategic location. Situated between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Indonesia is a vital trade hub in the Indo-Pacific region. This region has become the epicentre of geopolitical competition, especially as China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand its influence. As the US adopts more isolationist policies, Indonesia’s role as a bridge between the West and Asia becomes even more critical. Indonesia’s participation in BRICS could serve as a diplomatic counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region, as well as a stabilising force in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which plays a pivotal role in managing regional security and trade.
Furthermore, Indonesia’s growing digital economy presents it with an opportunity to contribute to BRICS’ technological and financial sectors. The country is home to a vibrant tech ecosystem, with a booming e-commerce industry, a thriving start-up scene, and an expanding fintech sector. This digital transformation makes Indonesia a natural partner for BRICS countries, which have focused on technological advancement to drive growth and global competitiveness. In 2020, Indonesia’s e-commerce market was valued at $40 billion, with expectations that it will grow to $130 billion by 2025 end. This digital economic boom could potentially align with BRICS’ desire to enhance digital and fintech cooperation, as seen in initiatives like the New Development Bank, which focuses on funding infrastructure and development projects in emerging economies.
Indonesia’s growing digital economy allows it to contribute to BRICS’ technological and financial sectors. It is home to a vibrant tech ecosystem, with a booming e-commerce industry, a thriving start-up scene, and an expanding fintech sector
In addition, Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN could be instrumental in aligning BRICS interests with those of Southeast Asia, an increasingly important region in the global economy. ASEAN’s economic and strategic significance cannot be overstated, and Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, is ideally positioned to influence ASEAN’s policies. By forging stronger links with BRICS, Indonesia could bring ASEAN closer to the bloc and help ensure that the interests of smaller economies in Southeast Asia are well-represented in global negotiations. The potential benefits of Indonesia’s participation in BRICS go beyond economic growth. As the US retreats from global leadership in some areas, Indonesia can assert its influence on various issues such as climate change, digital governance, and sustainable development. By participating in multilateral institutions like BRICS, Indonesia can strengthen its diplomatic ties with major emerging economies and position itself as a leader that promotes sustainable and inclusive growth.
However, Indonesia must also navigate the internal challenges posed by its diverse political landscape. The rise of populist politics and protectionist tendencies, both within Indonesia and globally, could pose a threat to its ambitions on the world stage. As Indonesia moves forward with its BRICS aspirations, it must ensure that its foreign policy remains open to cooperation with other global players while remaining true to its domestic interests. This delicate balance will require deft diplomatic manoeuvring, as Indonesia balances its aspirations to join BRICS with the need to maintain its independence in an increasingly divided world.
However, Indonesia must navigate the internal challenges posed by its diverse political landscape. The rise of populist politics and protectionist tendencies, both within Indonesia and globally, could threaten its ambitions on the world stage
Ultimately, the Indonesian future in BRICS is not just about economic growth; it is about positioning itself as a voice of reason in an era of populism and nationalism. As Donald Trump 2.0 continues to shape global politics, Indonesia’s ability to navigate these turbulent waters will be crucial in determining its role in the world’s emerging multipolar structure. By aligning itself with BRICS, Indonesia has the potential to harness its economic power, strategic location, and technological advancements to play a key role in the future of global governance. Whether Indonesia can realise this potential will depend on its ability to maintain its principles of non-alignment while engaging constructively with the shifting geopolitics of the 21st century.
Through careful diplomacy, economic pragmatism, and technological innovation, Indonesia can solidify its role as a critical player in BRICS, helping to shape the future of the global order while ensuring that the voices of emerging economies are heard and valued. As the world increasingly looks to balance the forces of nationalism and multilateralism, Indonesia stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the opportunity to steer its future in a way that benefits its people as well as the global community.
The writer is Special Advisor for South Asia at Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea. He is a regular commentator on the issues of Water Security and Transboundary River issues in South Asia. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
