At the time of writing, the Russo-Ukrainian war was in the form of an onslaught by the Russian forces to tame Ukraine to succumb to Russia’s demands and not join NATO. It was the 58th day of the war since it began on February 24. Russia called it a Special Operation, attacking Ukraine from many directions, possibly expecting a capitulation of the military and political regime headed by President Zelenskky, a former comedian, but the fighting spirit of Ukrainians has surprised the world. Russia employed five main axes of attack into Ukraine, to the capital Kyiv from Belarus in the North with Chernobyl, Chernihiv and Sumy on the way; Kharkiv in the north-east where many Indian medical students were studying and Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to President Putin to execute their rescue; Donetsk and Luhansk in the east; and Kherson in the south, yet the action in the South and Kyiv has petered, but it has been a humanitarian catastrophe.
To most analysts, an end to the devastation of Ukraine and deaths on both sides with the fall of Mariupol on April 21 seems to become a possibility, as President Putin looks to change Russia’s tactical plans to connect Crimea and Mariupol with Luhansk and Donetsk to Kharkiv (see map) and celebrate victory and shelve greater plans of subjugation. Carnegie reports the target date seems to be May 9, which is Victory Day (VE) for Europe and Russia, at least to announce a victory. Remnants of fighting will continue. All nations are deciphering the repercussions of this war as economies the world over have suffered and the oil price has risen to over $100 per barrel.
Ukraine is the ‘bread basket’ of Europe, and the supplier of some Soviet military technologies, that it sold to China and Pakistan to bolster its economy. Ukraine has factories for Zorya-Mashproekt ship prime movers and the Motor Sich Joint Stock Company, one of the largest worldwide engine manufacturers for airplanes and helicopters and industrial gas turbine installations, the Malyshev plant that makes T-80UD tanks like India’s T-90s from Russia, and Ukraine sold 500 to Pakistan and the large Avozstal steelworks and the Nikolaev Shipyard Okean not far from Mariupol, that built aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and China PLA(N)’s Liaoning(001). The Antonov serial production plant located at the Sviatoshyn Airfield in Kyiv produces AN-124, the largest aircraft in the world. The Indian military has a connection with all these facilities. All plants except Avozstal have been damaged.
Russia is a seller of military hardware and a major supplier of energy that flows through Ukraine to Europe. And Russia felt threatened that Ukraine was being admitted into NATO, and Russia went to war to protect encroachments on its borders, which actually began in 2014 with Russia’s military takeover of Crimea. War was avoided by the Minsk agreements in 2015. Nations that go to war have to pay a price for gains and that is the message Putin is conveying to his people, after the loss of the Russian Black Sea Flagship Moskva (discussed separately) and some reverses in Ukraine.
Rajnath in the US
The challenges to nations caused by this unusual war, including some for India, are being studied by all militaries as also to glean lessons from this war. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh discussed the effects of the war with Army Commanders on April 21 soon after he had visited Washington with EAM Jaishankar for 2 plus 2 talks with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Gen Austin Lloyd. He was reassured of support for military supplies with an emphasis that the USA wishes to have deeper strategic relations with India. In other talks, US officials said the US leadership understands India’s compulsions in the war to abstain in resolutions in the United Nations against Russia’s actions but hopes India would condemn the atrocities Russia has inflicted in Ukraine and not buy oil from Russia. Jaishankar has stated India buys a minuscule of oil compared to Europe.
In the war, the Ukrainian forces have shown that Goliath (Russia) could overcome David (Ukraine) that easily and is a lesson for militaries to hoist in this century. Modern weapons and attack drones in the hands of motivated personnel like in Ukraine, men and women, are lethal to down tanks, planes and helicopters, and a nuclear threat as a potent determinant of war, has yet to prove. President Putin has repeatedly threatened to deploy nuclear weapons while employing accurate long-range missiles like Kalibir and planes which are nuclear-capable, and on April 21, President Putin unveiled and launched a new powerful nuclear missile named Sarmat from Piestsk in North-West Russia to Kamchatka 6000 km, which carries multiple warheads, as a show of force and its military power to the USA.
A Look Back for Challenges and Lessons and Opportunities
A look back at the war and how it developed is therefore essential, to glean lessons and predict the challenges that the Indian Navy and Indian military will have to face, as India is heavily dependent on Russia and Ukraine for supplies for its military to remain operational. In recent times, even the powerful US military has had to retreat from military operations it began in the Middle East and Afghanistan, where it succumbed to the Taliban. This needs study for the China-India-Pakistan possible war scenario by all Directorates of Operations to make contingency plans and play joint war games with politicians as war is jointly fought and needs preparation. China believes in Sun Tzu’s edict, to win without war, and employs the 36 Stratagems of stealth that Zhuge Liang built from political lessons, for Chinese military culture and are taught in Chinese Staff Colleges. PLA employed stealth in Ladakh in 2020, to achieve buffer zones for a de-facto border without war. Parleys are alive to resolve the LAC and even EAM Jaishankar has quoted Zhuge Liang in his book, The India Way.
Russia’s heliborne special operations forces’ top priority was to secure Chernobyl and other nuclear waste recycling/fissile materials storage facilities in Ukraine, so that dirty IEDs cannot be made. In addition, Russia moved in at lightning speed but got bogged in fighting in built-up areas (FIBUA) and Russia’s strategy now is to surround and isolate all major Ukrainian cities, especially the industrialised ones, so that Ukraine cannot sustain the war effort.
The USA and EU have supplied weapons and sanctioned Russia and threatened to stop Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) facilities but Europe is still paying Russia in dollars for imports and it seems Europe is deeply divided over sanctioning Russia as European countries themselves are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies. That’s why the (SWIFT) mechanism has not yet been denied to Russia, which has already put in place its own counterpart of SWIFT, i.e. System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), and looks to Rupee-Rouble trade with India.
Sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Flagship Moskva: An Raksha Anirveda Analysis
At the height of the Russo-Ukrainian war, news broke on April 13 that Russia’s powerful cruiser Moskva has been hit by one or two Neptune ‘fire and forget’ Soviet-era missiles fired from a shore battery. The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the 11,000-ton Slava class Moskva was built in 1976 at a Nikolayev shipyard and commissioned in 1983. Incidentally, INS Vikramaditya was also built at Nikolayev’s Chernomorskiy yard. Russia admitted that one sailor died in the strike and 36 were missing, and 396 were rescued to Sevastopol, its homeport in Crimea. The ship was within the range of the low flying Neptune missile and Ukraine must have been fed 24×7 with Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) plots from NATO’s operation rooms to target it, as Internet has not been disrupted during the war. NATO Maritime Recce planes and satellites may have also provided intelligence as Turkey is a NATO member.
The R-360 Neptune with its increased range is a potent anti-ship cruise missile based on the Soviet Zvezda Kh-35 Uran with a 140-km range with improved electronics that Ukraine Navy refitted in 2020. Incidentally, Uran is a copy of the US Harpoon. The Indian Navy is familiar with this missile and has operated KH-35 Missiles on the Kora and Delhi Class ships, and is operational on the MiG-29Ks. The Indonesian Navy also inducted R-360s/Yakont type in the 1980s and is the precursor of the BrahMos NPO Mach missile now fitted in all large Indian Navy combatants.
This was a defining loss for Russia as Moskva was operational and had taken part in the attack to take Snake Island and its Osa AA system and radars provided air cover to the Black Sea Fleet. Russia claimed there was a fire on board but did not state the cause or details of the fire. The last Russian flagship ever sunk was by the Japanese Imperial Navy in the Battle of Tsushima 1905 off Port Arthur in Siberia, now named Dalian, a large PLA (N) submarine building base today.
In analysis, Moskva was 40 years old but it was upgraded in 2000 with newer electronics and 16 angled P-500 anti-ship missiles on deck and weapon systems like the AK-630 fast-firing guns, Fregat radar and torpedoes, and should have had good stability, anti-missile protection like chaff and EW and watertight integrity.
Superstructure hit
Normally a missile cannot sink a warship but it must be noted Ukrainians claimed they had fired two 870 kg Neptune missiles with 150 kg warhead from ashore and considering the terminal low altitude of the Neptune missile, it can be assumed that the missile hit the superstructure which has 16 missile launchers and was damaged extensively as depicted in the photographs.
The Russian Navy is a conscript navy, with less emphasis on the Black Sea Fleet and it is questionable how well the crew was trained for damage control, and until an inquiry releases details, navies will be speculating on this sinking. The Indian Navy will study the possible causes of sinking and whether the sympathetic explosion of ammunition on deck could be a cause, leading to sinking, and wisely Indian Navy’s latest ships have missiles fitted below deck. Any explosion of ready use ammunition on deck can only cause local damage, which can be contained by the crew. The Navy will also study the performance of other systems that the Navy has in common.
– Cmde Ranjit B Rai
Russian assurance
India has been assured that all military supplies from Russia will continue unhindered, but several Russian long-range missile strikes have caused significant damage to Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation infrastructure. Hence, India will have to deal with the break in the supply of gas turbines from Zorya-Mashproekt for the two Krivacks being built at Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) and both the Indian Navy and Air Force as operators of Kamov and MI-17 helicopters may see a break in the supplies from the Motor Sich Joint Stock Company as it supplies the TD3-117 engines for these helicopters. The Indian Air Force and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) are involved in the upgradation programme of 41 Anatov AN-32 planes, which is scheduled to be completed by 2024-25. The upgrade in advanced avionics, navigation and communication equipment and the process may see delays.
However, the saying when there is a crisis there is an opportunity, India can take steps to buy cheaper oil and supplies from Russia and replace luxury goods firms that have left Russia with Indian suppliers in Rupee-Rouble trade as in the cold war days and export grains and food to replace void by Ukraine. On military supplies, Russia holds all design patents of products of Ukraine and with Atamnirbharta India can stitch up companies like BrahMos Aerospace Ltd to Make in India.
–The writer is an Indian Navy veteran, former DNO and DNI. He writes and broadcasts on military affairs and is Curator of New Delhi’s only Maritime Museum at C 443 Defence Colony with free entry to bring about Sea Mindedness. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
