The 15th Aero India gets underway at Bengaluru, India from February 10-14, 2025 with exhibitors from 15+ countries displaying their products including significant aerial displays of advanced 5th generation platforms such as Lockheed Martin’s F-35 from the USA and Sukhoi’s Su-57 from Russia. This would mark the first display of Russia’s 5th generation Sukhoi fighter Su-57. India’s own Tejas Mk1 light combat aircraft will be on aerial display as it had done in the past few airshows, though the Tejas Mk 1A is the one keenly expected. HAL and ADA would go on to display the mock-ups of further derivatives; Tejas Mk 2 for the IAF, TEDBF for the Indian Navy, and India’s 5th generation fighter AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft); all slated to materialise in the next decade. There would be considerable interest in Drones, UAVs, communication systems, sensors, and weapon systems from the perspective of businesses, joint ventures, and collaborations. While cutting edge technologies will be displayed and debated, it is time to recognise the rapidly evolving developments in the aerospace domain that have enormous potential to transform the nature of air combat and warfare.
Impact of China’s Aerospace Developments
Two milestone events in China during the last month and a half, have had ‘Black Swan’ impact on the world, the West in particular. The first event was in the last week of December 2024, when China quietly flew two prototypes of 6th generation fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft. The news, spread through social media, took the world by surprise. The second event was even more earth-shaking, when in the middle of January 2025, a Chinese private company released its Open-Source AI tool, Deepseek. Not only was it developed rapidly and cost a fraction of the costs of AI tools of Silicon Valley, but its performance was also rated far better than those of the Western majors. The arrival of Deepseek in the market led to a slaughter of Silicon Valley companies in the stock market, with $ 500 billion of market value of NVIDIA shaved off in a single day. Both events have highlighted the significance of China’s innovation and rapid progress in hi-tec domains.
India’s current modern fighters are of 4.5 and 4th generation and include Rafale, Su-30 MKI, Tejas, and upgraded Mirage 2000. Given the significant shortfall in IAF’s squadron strength, the focus is on the accelerated manufacture and deliveries of Tejas Mk 1As, and Mk 2s
China demonstrated its second 5th generation fighter aircraft, J-35A at the Zuhai air show last year. This is the second 5th generation aircraft after J-20 (there are reportedly 250 J-20s in operational service), the only country other than the USA to have two 5th generation fighters. In December 2024, it was reported that China will supply 40 x J-35A aircraft to Pakistan within the next two years. This is a concern for India, as our own AMCA is yet to complete the prototype. If all things are on track, the AMCA will enter service not earlier than 2035. 5th generation fighter aircraft are characterised by stealth design, high-thrust engine, high performance and super-cruise capabilities, long-range and endurance, advanced radar and EW systems, integrated sensor and communication system, Datalink, and significant weapons package including in internal bay. China’s demonstration of rapid advancements in its aerospace capability is bound to accelerate the developments in America and Europe.
India’s current modern fighters are of 4.5 and 4th generation and include Rafale, Su-30 MKI, Tejas, and upgraded Mirage 2000. Given the significant shortfall in IAF’s squadron strength, the focus is on the accelerated manufacture and deliveries of Tejas Mk 1As, and Mk 2s. This, however, is a challenge due to supply chain issues hampering the production of these aircraft. IAF’s proposed RFP for 114 MRFAs will be of considerable interest during the Aero India, particularly from American, Russian, and French OEMs.
Wars, New Technologies and the Jump-start of the 6th Generation Aircraft
Much of the war-fighting concepts since the 1990s have been influenced by the 1991 Gulf War. Airpower dominance, precision weapons, sensors and EW, and that wars will be short and swift have characterised much of the debates, war plans and doctrines in the last three decades. Despite the awareness that all these wars were fought by the US and its allies, with preponderance of fire power, against extremely weak and small countries and militaries, the belief in short and swift wars prevailed. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have exposed the hollowness of this doctrine and brought into focus the reality of long, grinding, and attritional warfare even in an environment of advanced technologies. Ukraine has demonstrated that a weaker country can hold at bay for years, a stronger adversary if it has access to space-based communications, ISR, and weapons. Traditional concepts of air defence have been demolished with the use of drones and mobile air defence weapons, aided by accurate space-based information in an asymmetric strategy. On the other hand, Russia’s hypersonic missiles and stand-off weapons have demolished the strongest of air defences. Similarly, Ukraine has proved to be the death knell for helicopters in the battlefield, while artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles continue to be the major offensive weapons. Use of AI for targeting and autonomous drones are game changers in both Ukraine and in Gaza.
Use of AI in targeting and decision making has been significant if not enormous. Both wars have indicated the rapidity with which AI-enabled automation will influence all aspects of warfighting. These raise a few important questions:
- What is the future of airpower in terms of platforms, systems, and weapons?
- What should be India’s airpower development strategy in terms of building its self-reliance and advanced technology capabilities?
- Is the 5th generation fighter concept already giving way to the 6th generation systems concept?
Answers to the above questions can be deduced if we carefully analyse the recent developments and the trajectory of technology.
Technology Factors: Rapid developments in drone technologies and those related to communications, datalink, and network centric capabilities are changing the character of war, including in terms of costs and numbers. Drones are enabling a low-cost option that is effective, accurate, and in huge numbers.
It is interesting to observe that Europe has not ventured into a 5th generation fighter aircraft program. Europe’s current aircraft: France’s Rafale, Eurofighter of the four-nation consortium, and Sweden’s Gripen, are all in the 4.5 generation category. Considering the rapidly evolving technologies, European powers are leapfrogging to the 6th generation platform
AI and Robotics: Digital technologies, AI and robotics are having a transformational impact through autonomous systems. Increasing use of AI in targeting and decision-making has paved the way for rapid developments towards cognitive AI.
Advanced Materials, Stealth, and Integration: Digital engineering for design, additive manufacturing, advanced materials etc are shortening the development timeframes. Platform designs use advanced tailless designs using composites and advanced materials for stealth.
Sensors, Weapons, and NCW: 6th generation concepts involve the integrated suite of communications, sensors, EW, and Network Centric Warfare capabilities. NCW format integrates drones and manned platforms to develop a force system in a ‘System of Systems’ concept. Weapons include hypersonic and energy weapons.
Return to Classical Principles of War: The 1991 war exemplified the effectiveness of precision, ISR, and later, datalink driven NCW. The influence of these factors was to modify the principle of concentration of force in terms of precision and effectiveness at the cost of numbers and mass. The current ongoing wars, and technology developments like the drones, have brought back the importance of mass and numbers. Hence, force structures will need to be revisited in the context of the importance of high numbers and mass.
Short span of the 5th Generation Fighter: Currently the US and China operate two 5th generation fighters each (F-22 and F-35 of USA, and J-20 and J-35 of China), while Russia operates its lone 5th generation fighter, Su-57. The other countries who have 5th generation fighter programmes in various stages of development are India, Turkey, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These would take anywhere between 5 years to 15 years to materialise to the stage of series production. However, given the rapid technology developments discussed earlier, the advanced countries are already into their 6th generation fighter programs. Unlike previous generations, the tenure of the 5th generation aircraft, as it becomes evident, is becoming a short one of less than two decades. It is instructive to examine these developments particularly for India whose AMCA is still to get off the prototype stage.
6th Generation Fighter Programs – Drivers and Strategies
USAF’s F-22 is the longest serving 5th generation fighter aircraft, in operation since 2005, while China’s J-20 entered service in 2017, and Russia’s Su-57 in 2020. USAF’s Air Superiority AS 2030 concept evolved as NGAD (New Generation Air Dominance) or the 6th generation fighter program in 2018.
In September 2020, the US announced that the industry designed, built, and flown a full-scale demonstrator of its NGAD in a little more than a year since the start of the program. This was an incredible achievement. To design, develop, build and fly an aircraft in such a short timeframe is impossible with conventional design methods. This was possible through digital engineering, using high computational power and simulations resulting in considerable reduction in time and cost. Digital engineering is thus the most important driver for 6th generation fighter development.
The US set the 6th generation fighter concept as a “System of Systems” approach characterised by low-observable design, super cruise, adaptive engine, a native level of compatibility with Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) such as high energy lasers (HEL), high-powered microwave (HPM) weapons, or the use of AI and capacity to lead or manage manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) formations involving drones.
India’s position now is one of considerably difficult choices with respect to developing its aerospace capabilities. The most critical issue is the dwindling squadron strength of the IAF, which needs to be addressed on a war-footing
China’s equally rapid development and the test flight of its two 6th generation fighter prototypes in December 2024 is interesting. The first one is Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s CAC J-36, leveraging a tailless diamond-wing fuselage and is powered by two engines under the fuselage and a third engine in the spine. This is a large platform, possibly conceived for long-range, high-payload, and super cruise capabilities. It is designed for low-observability and improved stealth, use of AI, omnidirectional sensors, accelerating processing power of sensors, and iterating very rapidly using open mission systems. The three-engine configuration may also be intended to generate significant electrical power, a key need for supporting its advanced avionics, different sensors, high-output EW system, and potentially DEWs, such as HELs (High Energy Lasers) and/or HPMs (High Pulse Microwave). The second aircraft is Shanghai Aircraft Corporation’s SAC J-50/J-XX is a smaller tailless “Lambda-wing” platform with equally similar capabilities.
Russia has also embarked on its 6th generation fighter program, called PAK-DP/MiG–41 by the Mikoyan Design Bureau. The aircraft reportedly will incorporate 6th generation features including stealth. The aircraft is designed to have a max speed of M 4.3 (about 5270 kmph or 3270 mph), cruise at M 3.0 and fly at near space (between altitudes of 45000 metres and 12000 metres). Planned weapons include antimissile laser to intercept hypersonic missiles. It is also planned to carry anti-satellite missiles. The first flight is planned in this year mid-2025.
Europe’s Leapfrogging Strategy
It is interesting to observe that Europe has not ventured into a 5th generation fighter aircraft program. Europe’s current aircraft: France’s Rafale, Eurofighter of the four-nation consortium, and Sweden’s Gripen, are all in the 4.5 generation category. Considering the rapidly evolving technologies, European powers are leapfrogging to the 6th generation platform. There are two programs driven by two consortiums.
France-led Consortium: France, Germany, and Spain are collaborating on the development of a new fighter jet project known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which they consider Europe’s most important tool to preserve its sovereignty and security amid “fast growing threats.” The technology demonstrator is to fly in 2027 and is planned to enter operational service in 2040. The Next Generation Weapon System (NGWS) is the innovative core of the FCAS. The FCAS will be composed of the new generation fighter jet (NGF), remote carriers, unmanned aerial platforms, and a communication network called “combat cloud” designed to achieve information dominance. In the NGF concept, the new generation fighter will be accompanied by remotely piloted aircraft, or wingman drones, called ‘Remote Carriers’ that will connect to each other digitally using a combat “cloud”. Interoperability is very critical and AI will be aboard the platforms. The design of the FCAS rests on seven pillars: “aircraft, engine, remote carriers, combat cloud, simulation, sensors, and stealth.”
UK-led Consortium: Similarly, UK, Italy, and Japan are collaborating since 2022 to develop a next generation fighter aircraft under a new Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). The future aircraft’s integrated sensing, non-kinetic effects and integrated communications (ISANKE & ICS) will be at the heart of the system’s capability. The aircraft is called ‘Tempest’ and is being developed as a “System of Systems” networked with various assets (including loyal wingman drones). While the jet is planned to be manned, it will also be powered by advanced AI-driven software. Using AI and Machine Learning, the system exploits information from the aircraft to maximise the effect that the weapons can deliver.
Effectively, these aircraft are also flying super computers. More than manoeuvring and speed, what is important is computing power, sensor fusion, and power generation. Tempest will feature integrated sensing that will provide advanced highly integrated sensors and communications systems that will work seamlessly together to provide vital information to the pilot. The new ‘System of Systems’ will operate across five domains – air, land, sea, space, and cyber – and will have the next-generation fighter as its “core platform” connected to other crewed and uncrewed peripheral systems. Tempest is also being developed with option of being unmanned platform as well.
These sixth-generation fighters are being armed with internal lasers, a game changing technology that is valuable in layered defence. The fighter can engage with a range of non-kinetic effects such as EW and DEW. As a result, power generation is critical to lasers and the aircraft’s many other systems. The Tempest will use two advanced, adaptive engines with increased electrical power generation capability coupled with intelligent power management system that will meet the growing demand for air vehicle electrical power. Tempest’s radar and sensors will gather 10000X more data than today, and this will require equally powerful computers to process the data. The fighter jet will be characterised by artificial intelligence, supercomputing, combat cloud architecture, cyber-resilient and adaptive ultra-fast datalinks, for high-volume data transmission.
Tempest’s first flight is planned for 2027 and is scheduled to enter service by 2035. It is prioritised for large combat range and payload missions. Sixth-generation fighters are more about computing, data-processing and NCW capabilities, and less about flight performance.
With AMCA, India will be a generation behind. Since AMCA is still in the prototype development stage, India needs to make a choice. Europe provides the model to emulate, which is to leapfrog to the 6th generation fighter program
India’s Strategic Options
India’s position now is one of considerably difficult choices with respect to developing its aerospace capabilities. The most critical issue is the dwindling squadron strength of the IAF, which needs to be addressed on a war-footing. The blunder of scrapping the MMRCA project more than a decade ago has had a detrimental effect on India’s aerospace industry. The IAF, now down to 30 fighter squadrons as against its authorised requirement of 45 squadrons, continues to face challenges to its rebuilding and modernisation strategies. IAF’s force structure rebuilding now depends on the faster acquisition of the 180 x Tejas Mk 1As (83+97), possibly 200+ Tejas Mk 2s, and the impending procurement of 114 MRFA (Multi Role Fighter Aircraft) through a combination of direct acquisition and local manufacture under license. The MRFA (RFP issue is likely by mid 2025) is the most important target for foreign OEMs in the Aero India 2025.
As the CAS mentioned more than once in the last few months, the urgency for accelerating the production of Tejas variants is extremely important. Despite the best efforts, these aircraft, including the MRFA will take the better part of next decade to materialise. India must devote all efforts to get the supply chain and development issues under control and accelerate the production of Tejas Mk 1As, Mk 2s, and the TEDBF through a combination of public private partnership strategies. The decision on MRFA needs to be urgent so that the industrial process becomes faster. Setting in place a competitive environment in India’s aerospace manufacturing is now a vital requirement.
5th generation or 6th Generation?
AMCA is India’s 5th generation fighter aircraft project. By the end of 2030s the IAF and the IN will be operating largely 4.5 generation aircraft that include Tejas variants, Su-30 MKI and Rafale aircraft. If all plans go well, the AMCA may enter series production by 2035 at the earliest. This is the timeframe when the environment around India and world will begin to see the domination by 6th generation fighter systems. With AMCA, India will be a generation behind. Since AMCA is still in the prototype development stage, India needs to make a choice. Europe provides the model to emulate, which is to leapfrog to the 6th generation fighter program.
The argument for adopting a 6th-generation strategy gets stronger, when we realise that much of the Tejas variants, Rafale, and Su-30 MKI can be upgraded with 5th generation capabilities in due course. Leapfrogging strategy is the only option for India to close the gap with China. Going alone may become prohibitively expensive and take much longer due to technological challenges. A more reliable and optimal strategy would be to join one of the European consortiums just as Japan has done. The number of aircraft requirement will certainly be higher for India, and this should enable us to leverage the consortium better in terms of technology access, development work, and indigenous manufacture. The AMCA programme could be modified to be integrated into the 6th generation strategy.
India must make the right strategic decision. The time is now.
–The writer, a AVSM VM PhD (V) is a former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff for Policy, Plans, & Force Development (DCIDS – PP & FD). He is currently the President of The Peninsula Foundation, a Chennai-based public policy research think tank. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
