On February 28, hundreds of American and Israeli fighter jets took off together to launch the first big attack of their war against Iran. For the next 40 days, these two close friends fought side by side, planning every move together with great coordination. It looked like a powerful partnership. But war has a strange way of changing things, and what happened next surprised almost everyone.
This week, Donald Trump and Iran’s leaders quietly reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and finally end the war. The way the two sides dealt with each other completely changed. The biggest shock, however, was that Israel was kept out of these important talks. According to the details revealed so far, Israel was not even given a copy of the deal. Worse, the agreement seems to ignore almost all of Israel’s main worries.
Despite all the heavy damage done to Iran, its government is still firmly in power. In fact, the hardline leaders there have become even stronger and more influential than before. The war meant to weaken them seems to have done the opposite
One Israeli diplomat in Jerusalem called the result a “glorious failure” for Israel. In simple words, it looked good on the surface but achieved very little. This is also a big personal blow for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. He had worked very hard to convince the American president that a war with Iran could reshape the Middle East for the better, and might even bring down Iran’s Islamic Republic government.
At a press conference on June 15, Netanyahu insisted the war was a success. He proudly claimed, “we saved Israel from the danger of a nuclear attack.” Yet, interestingly, he stayed completely silent about Trump’s new agreement with Iran. That silence said a lot.
The truth is harder to accept. Despite all the heavy damage done to Iran, its government is still firmly in power. In fact, the hardline leaders there have become even stronger and more influential than before. The war meant to weaken them seems to have done the opposite.
The agreement, expected to be signed in Geneva on June 19, does not immediately touch Iran’s nuclear programme, which is exactly what worries Israel the most. Instead, this sensitive topic will be discussed in more talks over the next 60 days. There is no guarantee these talks will ever reach a final result. They could simply be stretched on and on, again and again, without any solution.
The agreement, expected to be signed in Geneva on June 19, does not immediately touch Iran’s nuclear programme, which is exactly what worries Israel the most. Iran still keeps its power to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, the wider Middle East, and even far-off regions. Another huge worry is Iran’s network of allied armed groups across the region
Meanwhile, Iran still keeps its power to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, the wider Middle East, and even far-off regions. Sadly, the America-Iran deal is not expected to control this missile programme at all. Another huge worry is also ignored, Iran’s network of allied armed groups across the region. The most dangerous of these is Hezbollah, the Shia militia in Lebanon, which may now enjoy greater protection from Israeli attacks.
Just hours before the ceasefire, Israel almost broke the truce by striking Beirut after Hezbollah launched more drones. But instead of cancelling the talks, that strike actually pushed Trump to finalise the deal faster. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israeli troops would stay in the security zones captured in southern Lebanon. Iran, however, wants those forces to withdraw.
Israel can no longer fully trust American support here. In several interviews, Trump openly criticised the Beirut strike. He said he was very angry, accused Israel of poor judgment, called Netanyahu difficult to deal with, and even said Israel should be grateful for America’s help.
Even during the fighting, the cracks were showing. America and Israel slowly began wanting different things. When Israeli attacks on energy facilities angered Trump, it became clear the two friends were no longer fully on the same page. Trump wanted to negotiate and make a deal with Iran’s government. Israel wanted that very government removed.
Israel can no longer fully trust American support here. In several interviews, Trump openly criticised the Beirut strike. He said he was very angry, accused Israel of poor judgment, called Netanyahu difficult to deal with, and even said Israel should be grateful for America’s help
An Israeli official who once worked in Washington explained the deeper problem. The two countries no longer share the old, easy relationship where officials at every level could talk openly. Now everything depends on the personal bond, and the personal tensions, between Netanyahu and Trump.
Confronting Iran has been Netanyahu’s main mission for years. He led Israel into two wars to weaken it. Though both caused real damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, that damage may not last forever and could slowly be repaired.
In the end, Israel did not achieve its main goals. It weakened its precious bond with America and strained ties with several Arab countries. All this may also hurt Netanyahu’s chances in the October election. Critics are not blaming him for starting the war, but for failing to win real results. As one military planner said, “Israel urgently needs a new strategy towards Iran.” For now, no such fresh plan is in sight.
-The writer is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
