India Must Employ Offensive Defence Against China

The situation along the LAC is fragile and China is building border infrastructure at a hectic pace. PLA has used military-to-military talks to consolidate positions in the intrusion areas. But India is placating China trying to avoid conflict. The same is apparent from the balance of trade in China’s favour. India must shun this pusillanimity as prudence demands we prepare for worst-case scenarios rather than lamenting later

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

Admin Opinion

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on March 18 that the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is “very fragile”. He also said substantial progress has been made for disengagement and discussions are ongoing for disengagement in many areas.1 Army Chief General Manoj Pande had stated on March 17 that the situation along the LAC is “stable” and China is building border infrastructure at a “very hectic pace”.2

 

Continuing military-to-military talks in Ladakh is in the vain hope of further disengagement when PLA has used these talks to consolidate positions in the intrusion areas. Tasking one Division to defend 800-km frontage in Eastern Ladakh was naïve and the absence of reserve formations exercising in the area because of the lockdown in 2020 was an open invitation to PLA mechanised divisions exercising in Aksai Chin to seize unoccupied areas.

Vacating the Kailash Range in our territory without linking it to Chinese withdrawal from Depsang and Demchok has left us with no leverage. We now have a solitary post on the north bank of Pangong Tso and buffer zones in “our territory” have been established wherever China agreed to disengage; denying traditional grazing grounds to locals who are forced to migrate.

 

Occupation of Kailash Range had left the PLA thunderstruck but the subsequent government decision to vacate it amounted to placating Chinese President Xi Jinping and avoiding conflict at “all costs’; making chairmanship of the G20 a grand success and in turn benefiting the 2024 general elections. The same is apparent from the balance of trade in China’s favour.

Dependence on China

Trading with China is essential to meet our requirements but everyone agrees that dependence on China should be reduced. However, the India-China bilateral trade in 2021, which benefited China by $69.4 billion, rose to $100 billion in 2022. China has now announced a $225 Defence Budget (7 per cent hike). $100 billion trade surplus in China’s favour; aren’t we partly funding the arming and modernisation of the PLA?

 
Vacating the Kailash Range in our territory without linking it to Chinese withdrawal from Depsang and Demchok has left us with no leverage. We now have a solitary post on the north bank of Pangong Tso and buffer zones established in ‘our territory’

India importing Chinese steel contributed to China’s trade surplus of $100 billion in 2022.3 This annual advantage to China is set to jump exponentially because China has cleverly offered steel at half the price plus one year credit, which is what traders want – damn the standoff. The Mumbai steel industry or rather Mumbai-based MASSMA (Metal and Stainless Steel Merchant Association) has “already” decided to import stainless steel from China. Do we understand that China’s record-setting trade surplus is the key engine preventing its economic growth from stalling?

Jaishankar has said we cannot “go to war” with a country with a bigger economy – meaning China. But this is not about going to war but defending one’s own territory. Do we comprehend how bully China reads our demonstrated pusillanimity? Do we understand that China looks down upon us in disdain right from the time Mao Zedong referred to India as a “useless cow” in his poem? This is why China invaded Eastern Ladakh in 2020, Galwan being an exception for which neither the military nor the political hierarchy can claim the credit.

Consolidation of Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping’s unanimous election as third-time China’s President and third-time Chairman of the Central Military Commission by the 3,000-member National People’s Congress (NPC) proves he has consolidated his position fully. His close confidants Han Zheng and Zhao Leji are China’s new Vice President and parliament chair respectively. China’s new Minister of National Defence General Li Shangfu is on the US sanctions list.

Xi is determined to integrate ‘lost territories’ into mainland China; primarily Taiwan and in our case Arunachal Pradesh termed “South China” by Beijing. But during the SCO Summit in Uzbekistan last September, China also distributed maps showing Arunachal and Ladakh part of China and J&K part of Pakistan.4

Role of the United States

Declassified American documents of 1962 reveal when Nehru sought US assistance to fight China, the US decision was to “give them (India) some weapons but make sure China and India never join hands”. China joining hands with India is impossible till the border is settled, which China doesn’t want. But it is apparent that the US wants an India-China conflict to reap strategic and financial benefits akin to the Ukraine conflict.

Trading with China is essential to meet our requirements but a $100 billion trade surplus is in China’s favour; aren’t we partly funding the arming and modernisation of the PLA?

The CIA-MI6-CSIS (Canadian National Intelligence Service)-ASIS (Australian Secret Intelligence Service) are supporting or deliberately overlooking the Khalistan movement, which is just one aspect of American machinations. Knowing China loathes India-US relations, America is snuggling up to India to tease Beijing. Two US senators have introduced a bill in the US Senate to recognise McMohan Line as the boundary between China and Arunachal Pradesh. The resolution is yet to be approved but why is America not supporting ‘One India’ and declaring that Ladakh and Kashmir are part of India?

The US media claims US intelligence helped India rout China in 2022.5 White House is mum but media reference is to the skirmish in the Tawang area.6 Both nations have had an intelligence-sharing agreement for a long time but in 2020 the US gave no intelligence to India about Chinese motorised divisions rushing to Eastern Ladakh. US Secretary for Defence Lloyd Austin visiting India in 2021 told the media: “We never knew India and China were so close to war.”

The reason to worry about

Some individuals are professing there is no reason to worry about China as the issue of India having lost some 1000 sq km in Depsang and Siachen being threatened is exaggerated, half-baked knowledge of people who do not know the topography or the kind of our deployment. The reverse is actually true. They also argue that the PLA also cannot patrol the buffer zones, without admitting buffer zones are in Indian Territory – west of even China’s 1959 claim line, which India never recognised. The loss of control of about 1000 sq km (excluding the Kailash Range which we vacated on China’s goading) is not in Depsang alone. Moreover, we are left with one solitary post along the North Bank of Pangong Tso.

China has demonstrated the knack of “working” on those who served in Beijing. Some of them would be advising that giving bigger financial benefits to Beijing would avert conflict. But we need to understand that $100 billion or more is not much for the size of China’s economy. China is meeting its energy demands from the Middle East, Russia, Angola, Brazil and Malaysia but its hunger for minerals and water continues to be insatiable, which is one major reason it eyes India.

The US continues to raise the ante against China in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, handing over Afghanistan to the Taliban and abandoning even small arms instead of destroying them was part of the American plan to destabilise South Asia. These weapons plus night vision equipment are already flowing into India and Pakistan7; the Qatari mission in Kabul being the communication link between the CIA and Taliban.

Highway through Aksai Chin

It would be sensible to acknowledge that conflict with China is inevitable in the near future. It is apparent that the US wants an India-China conflict to reap strategic and financial benefits akin to the Ukraine conflict

It may be said that China should be happy with India benefiting it financially, meekly vacating Kailash Range and taking care not ‘to annoy the dragon’ but Xi has his strategic ambitions. Why would he wait for India to improve border infrastructure and add teeth to its military especially when India has the advantage of quality military manpower? China has announced a second highway through Aksai Chin to be completed by 2035, which according to foreign media, would run adjacent to Galwan, and Hot Springs.8 China obviously plans depth for this much before it comes close to the present LAC in Eastern Ladakh. It would be prudent to acknowledge that conflict with China is inevitable in the near future.

Indian and Chinese militaries are face-to-face but the question is where and how would China wants to break through – using advanced technology and weaponry. According to Forbes, Russia is expecting an attack of 50,000 drones in the Ukraine conflict.9 China already has such capability plus hypersonic and space-based weapons. If Xi decides on selective conflict, he would employ overwhelming force to ensure success at chosen points.

Nuclear exchange

The POTUS Joe Biden continues to raise the conflict levels in Ukraine but miscalculations can lead to nuclear exchange10, which would likely involve Europe-US. But the chances of this are lower (negligible?) in the India-China conflict. This is why western scholars have been saying in closed-door discussions that China could use tactical nukes against India for territorial gains knowing Indian policymakers would hesitate to respond similarly fearing escalation.

Nuclear exchange causes destruction both ways but if Xi is convinced that our response will not be similar, he could use a tactical nuke to achieve the aim, also cocking a snook at America; it is not the only nation to use nukes. Hopefully, this will not be the case but ruling it out totally (or bio-weapons) would be naïve. Prudence demands we prepare for “worst case” scenarios rather than lamenting later we never thought China would do so. Recall after China’s 2020 aggression, the sheepish insertion in our media read: “We knew the PLA could occupy these new positions in 24-36 hours but never thought they would do so.”

Finally, we must employ offensive defence against China allowing the Army to execute offensive plans whenever conflict occurs next.

References

  1. (https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/situation-at-lac-still-very-fragile-dangerous-eam-489270)
  2. (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/china-building-border-infrastructure-at-hectic-pace-army-chief-general-manoj-pande/articleshow/98742075.cms?from=mdr)
  3. (https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/china-opening-up-economy-to-aid-india-steel-firms/2962141/)
  4. (https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/1581500113750413317)
  5. (https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-03-20/u-s-intel-helped-india-rout-china-in-2022-border-clash-sources)
  6. (https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/another-clash-india-china-border-underscores-risks-militarization)
  7. (https://youtu.be/bZfNpEjC5u4)
  8. (https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-plans-another-aksai-chin-highway/article65663018.ece)
  9. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/?sh=2fa933156ffc)
  10. (https://news4masses.com/potus-heading-for-nuclear-showdown/)

 

-The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.