A watershed moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East was achieved when the Abraham Accord was signed between Israel and four other Arab states – Bahrain, the UAE, Sudan and Morocco – under the supervision of the US led by President Donald Trump in 2020. This accord led to the normalisation of ties between Israel and these Arab states leading to the recognition of the Jewish nation-state of Israel by the Arab countries. Not just it led to the establishment of formal diplomatic and commercial ties between Israel and the Arab states who are signatories of the landmark accord.

This accord has proven to be a milestone in reshaping the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Middle East. Not only has it led to the cessation of hostilities between a large number of Arab states and Israel but in the long run will contribute to greater economic, cultural, religious and technological integration, which counts as one of the world’s least economically and commercially integrated regions.

Having said that, the accord has left out two key countries that still command a formidable presence in the affairs of the region – Saudi Arabia and Iran. While the USA played the role of a mediator between Israel and the Arab states mentioned as well as between Israel and Egypt in 1979 Camp David Accord, it is still at loggerheads with Iran. The USA does not enjoy diplomatic ties with Iran and has had adversarial ties since the overthrow of the western–backed Shah Reza Pahlevi in the 1979 Islamic revolution of Iran.

The current clerical regime in Iran is not only virulently anti-Israel but more so it is anti-USA. Differences between the USA and Iran span a host of issues whether related to Iran’s clandestine nuclear programme to Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas and other militant-terrorist organisations. US sanctions against Iran have been in place since the 1980s and are likely to remain so in the future.

On the other hand, Israel and Iran are the arch nemesis of each other and enjoy no ties whatsoever. In fact, Iran has been involved in actively supporting Hezbollah and Hamas who have organised attacks against Israel and have been involved in wars, the latest being the 11 day war in Gaza in 2021. However, Iran has so far avoided a direct confrontation with Israel. Israel also exercises intense antagonism towards Iran.

In the nuclear talks that the US and European Union have been conducting in Vienna for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Israel has been strongly opposed to giving Iran any relaxation over the sanctions. Needless to say, Iran resents the Israeli attitude. Further, Iran has historically been a strong advocate for the Palestinian state and has harboured ambitions of destroying Israel. Hence it is quite understandable why Israel and Iran are at loggerheads.

The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran is more of a geopolitical rivalry than cultural although religious factors do play a key role.

Both the states have been vying for the position of the core state in the Islamic civilisation in the words of Samuel P Huntington, which he argued in his magnum opus work Clash of Civilizations and Remaking of World Order.

The path to Abraham Accords 2.0

However international politics is all about shifting sands of priorities and national interests. In that context, it is imperative that a new unprecedented step is taken. Perhaps, Abraham Accords 2.0. In this accord, India can play a crucial role. India has the diplomatic and economic capital to mediate with Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the USA. India enjoys excellent ties with all the countries.

New Delhi’s voice matters to the world. The fact that the West was scrambling to get India to side with them against Russia in the Russo-Ukraine war shows the amount of political importance India enjoys in the Western world. At the same time, Russia providing India with oil at a discounted rate to the prevailing sky-high prices of this fossil fuel shows that Russia attaches extreme importance to ties with New Delhi.

New Delhi can offer to mediate among Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA. While there are chronic differences among the countries involved yet India should not be reluctant about the possibility of mediation.

India can undertake intense diplomacy in Washington, Tehran, Riyadh and Tel Aviv to convince all the sides that the differences and animosities need to be set aside for the mutual cause of establishing peace in the region. However, it will not be an easy task. Israel and Saudi Arabia will have strong reservations about Iran’s nuclear programme and its support for terrorist groups across the Middle East.

Iran, hence, must make some concessions such as dialling down its anti-Israel rhetoric and incrementally reducing the intensity of its nuclear programme. The US in turn should relax and eventually remove sanctions on Iran. The clerical regime in Iran must also rein in its proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and must strictly instruct them to not carry out attacks against Israel.

Additionally, Iran must jettison its support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen who have targeted Saudi Arabia repeatedly and must take demonstrable steps to crack down on anti-US and anti-Israel protests and groups carrying out such propaganda.

India can make use of its cosmopolitan cultural capital to highlight the fact that when the multitude of people cutting across religions, cultures, and traditions can peacefully co-exist in India then why not countries. India needs to convince the four countries that Iran is being increasingly isolated as Israel normalises its ties with other Arab states and a peace accord with Saudi Arabia will end up isolating Iran further in the region. India needs to persuade Iran that sponsoring fanaticism in the name of religion will not take a country very far as India’s next-door neighbour Pakistan is a classic example of a state on the verge of collapse.

Finally, New Delhi must make the parties realise what Henry Kissinger wrote in his book World Order asserted – economics trumps religion. Therefore, the parties involved will experience a tremendous boost in their economic and commercial ties with the peace accord.

– The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda