At a recent meeting held in The Hague, the 32-member NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) pledged a historic commitment to increase its defense budget up to 5% of its respective economies’ GDP. This scale-up in spending comes against the backdrop of a flurry of geopolitical developments, which have changed the very purpose of this Western military organisation in general and Europe in particular.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, is one such event. NATO has been struggling to justify its very existence, especially after suffering a continuous tirade from US President Donald Trump, who questioned the utility of the organisation and lambasted it for acting as free-riders and feeling secure at America’s expense.
The Russia-Ukraine war shook the foundations of the Trans-Atlantic politico-military order and revived its original purpose, which is to counter and contain Russia (former Soviet Union). NATO began mobilising itself, and many countries such as Germany, France, and the UK, changed their tactics. Instead of just verbal denunciation of the Kremlin, they began supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons – from missiles and drones to an anti-missile defence shield.
Determined to revive an assertive Germany, Chancellor Friederich Merz announced an ambitious defence plan to catapult Germany to the centre of the European security matrix
It also began to change its stance towards its American partners. Instead of relying on America for conventional and nuclear safety, Europe began to rearm and remilitarise itself. This is especially so since Friedrich Merz became the Chancellor of Germany. Determined to revive an assertive Germany, albeit one that champions pan-Europeanism and European security, Frederich Merz announced an ambitious defense plan – one that aims to catapult Germany to the centre of the European security matrix.
However, certain caveats remain in place.
China-Russia-Iran axis
Despite Russia suffering heavy casualties in men and materiel terms in the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war, NATO isn’t out of the woods; Russia still poses a formidable arsenal of weapon platforms coupled with offensive warfare strategies. This was evident from the 2007 cyber attack on Estonia, which crippled it, or the non-linear warfare the Russians waged in accordance with the Gerasimov doctrine to annex Crimea to itself.
To complicate the situation, China has emerged as another potent rival. While an important trade and technological partner, China is certainly no friend of Europe. China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses 100 countries across the globe and has a formidable presence in Europe, has turned out to be an instrument of debt-trap that is meant to hijack the economic sovereignty of European countries.
Further, Russia has upgraded its relationship with China to a no-limits one, which has complicated NATO’s geopolitical calculations as Russia makes increasing use of Chinese military platforms and China helping Russia economically.
Iran, too, has entered the fray, providing Russia with diplomatic and military support. All this poses new problems for Europe, which is looking to increasingly reassert itself as the centre of global geopolitics.
Europe is rebranding the geopolitics of Eurasia by looking for new allies. One such ally is India. The most visible manifestation is the EU-India free trade deal. The negotiations are in progress
Search for new partners
Given the new issues, Europe is rebranding the geopolitics of Eurasia by looking for new allies. One such ally is India. Unlike in the past, when ties between the continent and India were conditioned by forces of colonialism and imperialism, thereby limiting the scope of the relationship. However, today Europe is actively courting India; the most visible manifestation of this is the EU-India free trade agreement, the negotiations of which are going on in full swing.
What has bolstered the hopes of reaching a new deal is the recent signing of the India-UK free trade agreement, a first for India involving a major European economy.
India is emerging as a vital partner for Europe, especially when it comes to countering China. This must be seen from the economic perspective, given the disproportionate influence China wields in Europe through the BRI. Europe forged the IMEEC or India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which is designed to transform global economic and trade connectivity. This is seen as a part of integrating its Global Gateway Initiative with IMEEC.
Europe is strengthening its ties with Vietnam and the Philippines to counter China. European countries are also courting African countries primarily to get the rare earth materials
Further, Europe is actively improving its ties with other Asian countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines to strengthen its counter-China axis.
Another key area is Africa; European countries are actively courting African countries primarily to get a bigger slice of the rare earth minerals market, which has emerged as highly important, given the proliferation of 4th generation technologies around the world.
However, the path ahead won’t be easy. Europe, both in terms of NATO and the EU, is being driven in different directions thanks to the rise of Eurosceptical populist leaders who question the idea of European solidarity. Having said that, global geopolitics is set to undergo profound changes with multiple forces at work.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
