The Middle East and North Africa region is of critical importance not least for India but for the world for several factors. For one the region is one of the most critical sources of global energy supplies and regional security and stability is vital for the sea lines of communication (SLoCs) in the Western Indian Ocean. The Gulf region has also emerged as a hub for international business and hence regional security acquires importance for the stable international business environment. Further, the MENA region plays important roles in issues related to radicalism and terrorism as well as international arms transfers. There are also concerns for peace in the region due to protracted regional conflicts.

For India, the region is critical for many reasons including the safety and security of its nationals staying and working in the Gulf, for energy security, trade and investments as well as for maritime security in the Arabian Sea. India has also forged strong counter-terrorism cooperation with regional countries, especially with Israel and the Arab Gulf states. While India has been strengthening its ties with the region and does not face any challenge at the bilateral level, some exogenous factors do pose a challenge to Indian interests in MENA. For example, India’s relations with Iran have been affected by the US factor. However, presently it is the China factor that poses serious challenges for Indian policymakers as far as its strategic interests in MENA are concerned.

China-MENA strategic cooperation

China has over the years developed close partnerships with countries in the Middle East. The relations are rooted in business and trade ties but have grown in recent times to include deeper diplomatic, political, economic, security and defence engagements. Several factors have contributed to the strengthening of ties between China and countries in the MENA. From the Chinese perspective, the region is not only a dependable source of energy supplies and a vast export market for its products but is also a critical component of Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative (BRI). Additionally, the region holds geostrategic significance for Beijing in increasingly tense global politics wherein the United States (US) and its transatlantic European allies see China’s external expansion as a threat to the US-led international order.

On the other hand, MENA countries view China as a global economic powerhouse which cannot be ignored for their economic prosperity. Beyond developing trade, investments and energy cooperation, the regional countries have responded enthusiastically to the BRI for both bolstering domestic infrastructure and for the prospects of reviving transnational trade between East and West Asia. The regional countries also understand that infrastructure development can also help them emerge as a critical trade hub between Asia, Africa and Europe. Besides, there are geopolitical and strategic considerations for MENA countries, especially the regional powers, to develop closer ties with China. For one, the regional countries have grown increasingly uncertain of US security commitments in MENA. The inability and unwillingness of different US administrations to come to the aid of regional countries facing internal trouble and pivot to Asia or the Indo-Pacific have forced them to develop ties with other global powers including China.

Challenges for India

In light of this, it is critical to assess how the growing strategic partnerships between China and MENA countries can impact India. Foremost, for India, it would be critical to enlist the support of regional countries against any Chinese aggression against India. The Chinese transgressions at the India-China border and maritime threats in the Indian Ocean are critical for India. Regarding border issues, the MENA countries are unlikely to support any Chinese aggression as was visible during the Doklam and Galwan incidents. But the issue of a free and open Indo-Pacific might be more complicated and enlisting regional support would require a coordinated diplomatic, political and security effort both at the bilateral and multilateral levels. Nevertheless, there are challenges for India emanating from China’s growing strategic presence in MENA that require a deeper assessment. Broadly these can be viewed through economic, geopolitical and strategic lenses.

Economic issues

The most immediate and critical challenge is economic with wider geo-economic implications. Over the past decades, China has emerged as the largest trading partner for the MENA countries. For example, in 2020, according to World Bank statistics, China’s total trade with the region was US$267.81 billion. In contrast, MENA’s total trade with India during the year was US$124.09 billion and with the US it was US$97.92 billion. Similarly, China is the largest importer of hydrocarbons from the region. But above all, it is China’s strategic investments in infrastructure projects including ports, airports, oil & gas infrastructure, special economic zones, transportation hubs etc. that are critical from an Indian viewpoint. These strategic investments while beneficial for the host country and the geo-economic transformation in MENA give China an advantage over other external countries including India that are vying for greater economic engagements in the region.

Besides, China also poses competition for India in attracting investments in its development and infrastructure projects that are critical for accelerating economic growth. Here, India has an advantage given its strong post-COVID economic recovery and China’s continued adherence to a zero-COVID policy. Nonetheless, during and after the pandemic Beijing has widened its economic engagements with the region through healthcare diplomacy and poses a challenge for New Delhi notwithstanding the Indian advantage over China due to its strong medical and pharmaceutical industries. In this regard, Indian stakeholders in the public and private sectors will have to work in harmony to harness the potential for attracting investments from the Gulf region as well as develop closer ties in the health and pharmaceutical sectors.

Geopolitical aspects

Economic factors notwithstanding, China’s growing regional footprint poses diplomatic and political challenges for India. On many regional and international issues, New Delhi counts on the support of the regional countries. For example, on issues related to problems with Pakistan including its meddling in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and use of cross-border terrorism against India. China has in recent years blindly supported Pakistan on these issues including blocking Pak-based terrorists from being listed in the United Nations Security Council’s 1267 committee list of sanctioned individuals and groups involved in transnational terrorist activities. India has also opposed the Chinese infrastructure development project—the China-Pakistan Economic Project—passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Given that the project is part of China’s broader BRI and the MENA countries have responded enthusiastically to the BRI, it will be a challenge for India to underlie its principled position on the issue.

Further, there are challenges because of the direction in which international politics is heading. India has emerged as a major pole in international politics and prefers a more multipolar world order. New Delhi recognises that the world cannot be viewed from a bipolar perspective of US-China tensions wherein the legitimate concerns of other global and regional powers are overlooked. This was overtly visible through the developments in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While the Western powers led by the US and European countries have opposed the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, countries like India and many MENA countries, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, have adopted a more nuanced position to safeguard their interests. This has led to increased Western criticism of the Indian position and pressure to change it has been mounted. While the Government of India has defied the pressure, it underlines the challenge for India in safeguarding its interest vis-à-vis China and the global politics wherein the global powers can adopt a partisan approach.

This is important because presently, Indian interests in the Indo-Pacific are aligned with countries such as Japan, Australia and the US. The European countries have also come closer to the Indian viewpoint but the regional powers in MENA remain away from the political developments in the Indo-Pacific. They have thus far adopted a neutral approach and have remained away from condemning or isolating China on any of the issues in MENA or Indo-Pacific. Nonetheless, the Western Indian Ocean region is a critical waterway for international trade and maritime security and the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries are critical partners for maintaining a free and open Western Indian Ocean. This means that India needs to work more closely with the US and European countries to underline the dangers posed by China in the Indo-Pacific. This is difficult because of China’s strong strategic partnerships with the regional countries that have in recent years adopted a more independent foreign policy and no longer see the need to align their interests with the Western powers.

Strategic domains

India also has security-oriented concerns so far as China’s growing engagements with the region are concerned. Beijing has gradually increased its security engagements with regional countries. China is the fourth largest global supplier of arms and it is gradually increasing its arms supplies to regional countries that are among the topmost global importers of arms. Defence trade, therefore, is another area where India faces competition from China. Chinese investment in research and development and technological know-how in the defence sector can give it an advantage over India which has in recent years begun to work towards developing an indigenous defence industry for both atmanirbharta (self-sufficiency) in its arms procurement as well as in promoting defence exports to strengthen its foreign trade. In maritime security, Indian and Chinese interests in the Indo-Pacific, including in the Western Indian Ocean, have been diverging and India must develop closer maritime security cooperation with MENA countries, especially in the Gulf, to offset any Chinese advantage in this domain. Chinese naval and oceanic activities in the region have witnessed a sharp increase in recent times and are a cause of concern for India.

Finally, there are also reports of China’s growing military ties with MENA countries not only in the conventional training and joint exercises domains but also in advanced military technology including cooperation in nuclear technology and ballistic missiles. Regional countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey and Egypt have been gradually expanding their military cooperation away from the US and Europe, and Russia and China have emerged as major alternatives. Undoubtedly, in recent years, India too has developed closer defence and military cooperation with the Gulf countries but not to the scale which Russia and China have done. Given that India has strong security interests in the region not least because of the regional insecurity and turmoil but also because of the presence of its nearly 10 million nationals in the region. Also, China has an advantage because of its head start in the military modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) which makes it attractive for regional countries to develop closer ties with China. India has an advantage over China vis-à-vis Israel with which it has a robust defence and military partnership while due to the US factor Israel-China military cooperation has remained limited.

Conclusion

China’s growing economic, political and diplomatic, security and defence engagements with MENA countries give it a strategic foothold in the region. China is the largest external trading partner for the region and the economic cooperation goes beyond trade to strategic investments in critical sectors including energy, transportation and infrastructure development giving it a strategic advantage over other partner countries. China’s BRI and its spread over the region have further boosted Beijing’s geo-economic presence in the region. The economic cooperation has been on the upswing despite the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and China’s continued adherence to the zero-COVID policy. China has also rapidly developed stronger political contacts in the region as well as harnessed defence and security cooperation with the regional countries, especially in the Gulf. These pose a multifaceted challenge for Indian interests in MENA encompassing trade, business and investments as well as security, defence and military cooperation. There are also geopolitical concerns both in the West Asia and South Asia regions as well as because of the developments around Indo-Pacific wherein India’s interests are currently aligning with the US and European powers. Given the present circumstances, therefore, China is emerging as a strategic challenge for India and its interests in the MENA region.

-The writer is a Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi. Views expressed are of the author and not necessarily of MP-IDSA or the Government of India