The political crisis in Pakistan is getting murkier day by day. Imran Khan and his party might seem to be in the docks, but he is still sailing valiantly. Though some of his close aides might have deserted him due to pressure from the omnipresent military, but Pakistan’s Supreme Court (SC) and its Chief Justice stand by him. The exodus is only of some leaders as the core group of leaders, like Asad Umar and Shah Mohammed Qureshi, and grassroots workers still remain with Imran.
Despite serious charges of being a mastermind of violence and riots on 9th May 2023, by the provincial and the federal governments, including the Army, his foes have not been able to lay hands on Imran Khan again, because he enjoys the tacit support and patronage of the SC. This is where the federal government and the Army seem helpless. What Imran Khan has achieved, would have a long term affect on the “high handedness” of Pakistan’s military in civilian affairs the country. He has shown the military that either they should go back to its barracks or face the ire of politically conscious “youth” of the country.
It is not only the SC, which supports Imran Khan but also his core and committed supporters known as the “youth brigade” of Pakistan who are his loyal devotees. It is a known fact that 65% of Pakistan’s population comprises of young people in the age group of 18 to 40 years. It is a huge supporting base and it has shown on 9-10 May 2023 as to what the “Imran Army” was capable of doing. The days of “military takeover” may now seem to be a part of the history.
“Imran’s youth brigade” might be in a “tactical withdrawal” for the time being, but it retains its cohesion and would wait for the right moment to strike back. The arrest of almost 14,000 Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) activists might have acted as deterrence temporarily, but it has not dampened the spirits of ordinary workers, who are committed to him.
Imran’s supporters are being branded as “terrorists” for their trial by the military courts, as per the existing “Anti-terrorists Law” in Pakistan. It may silence the “youth brigade” for some time but military trials may soon come under the scanner with the SC still supporting Imran Khan, who has already filed a writ petition in SC challenging the military trials. Besides, their trial by an army courts is already being questioned by the civil society in Pakistan. Military trials of civilians are against the norms of any civilised society.
Pakistan Army, led by General Asim Munir, is determined to act harshly against the judiciary but it cannot easily impose the martial law. The case of Pakistan’s last dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, is a great deterrence for General Asim Munir or any other future General to act against the judiciary. If General Munir tries to suspend the judiciary and take over the country, he may face stiff resistance and Pakistan might have a civil war.
Imran’s core and committed supporters known as the “youth brigade” of Pakistan are his loyal devotees
The lawyer’s movement in 2008 had forced General Pervez Musharraf to not only quit but a civilian court also sentenced him to death. He managed to escape the death sentence with the help of General Raheel Sharif, the former Army Chief, who managed to get him leave the country, and he lived as a “fugitive” in Dubai till his death.
General Asim Munir’s problem is not only the judiciary but also a silent section within the army. His opponents within the army might have adopted a “wait and watch” stance at the moment. It is a known fact that Gen Asim Munir, not being from Kakul Military Academy was not liked by some senior officers, including some corps commanders. And he knows it too. The fact that there was opposition within the army was evident from the details of his talk to the officers in the Sialkot military garrison, where he used very harsh and damning words.
Zalmay Khalilzad’s Tweet revealed this on 19th May 2023; he himself got it from his reliable source within the army. It is reflective of the deep US nexus within the Pak Army. USA boasts of 75 years of investment in Pakistan Army. It has not only been supporting military dictators but also has been giving academic scholarships to families of Army officers. People like retired Lt Gen Salim Bajwa’s family owns 99 companies in USA and he was Chairman of CPEC authority during Imran Khan’s prime minister-ship.
Zalmay Khalilzad had tweeted on 19 May: “I was concerned for #Pakistan before, but a recent speech by the Army Chief has led me to believe that things are truly dire. His closed-door angry tirade to senior officers in Sialkot has been reliably shared with me. The entire speech was alarming but two points stand out.”
It is essential to know that Zalmay Khalilzad is an important member of the Republican Party and an American diplomat and foreign policy expert. Khalilzad was U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation from September 2018 to October 2021. He has been in constant touch with Pakistan military hierarchy, being a former US ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the UN.
It is no hair brainer to know that a lot of Pakistan Army’s serving or retired senior officers have their families and or children living in USA. US military has been in constant touch with these officers. It is also known that USA supports Imran Khan. Therefore, it is very much on the cards that Imran Khan would bounce back with the help of the American and “silent supporters” within the Pak Army. USA would not allow him and PTI to go into oblivion.
Pakistan Army, led by General Asim Munir, is determined to act harshly against the judiciary but it cannot easily impose the martial law, yet again
Now the question arises, when would Imran Khan bounce back with the same vigour? A simple answer is during and after elections in Pakistan. It is immaterial whether elections are held before October 2023 or after October 2023 or even if they are held in 2024. Imran’s biggest asset during elections would be undeniable rivalry between the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz) and PPP (Pakistan People Party).
Their recent patch up is a marriage of convenience. Asif Ali Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto of PPP are slippery characters. They would cleverly ditch PML-N. This is why PPP was silently cosying up with PML-Q of Shujaat Chaudhry, who wields considerable influence in Punjab province. Do not forget that Pervez Ilahi, cousin of Shujaat Chaudhry is president of PTI and he has not left the party.
There are rumours to suggest that Imran Khan was being asked to go into exile or face a court martial. Even if he goes out and lay dormant in a foreign country, there is no guarantee that he would be out of the political ring. The example of Nawaz Sharif twice leaving the country has not weakened his party, PML-N. First time General Pervez Musharraf sent him to Saudi Arabia in 2000. And second time, it was Imran Khan’s government, which had sent him out three years back.
Therefore, those who want Imran Khan out of Pakistan ought to know it would not politically finish Imran Khan. He has suffered a temporary setback because of certain acts of his workers on 9th May 2023, whether planned or spontaneous. But he will rise again from the ashes of the unfortunate incident to send Pak Army back to the barracks once and for all, an idea, which invigorates the 65% young population of the country. Certainly, only fools would think that Imran Khan is “hit wicket” and out. He will be very much there on the ground with his swinging bouncers!
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
