The US and its Western cronies such as Canada, Britain, Turkey and Estonia have trained and armed the Ukrainian military for well over a decade and yet Kiev is unable to put up a strong fight against Russia. In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is beseeching the West to stop the Russian Army.

The truth is the West can’t do a thing against Russia. As the Russian military machine rolled into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin warned: “Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history.”

Putin isn’t bluffing. Napoleon and Adolf Hitler messed with Russia and ended up losing their empires and lives. Moscow gave them such a memorable treatment that France and Germany never invaded Russia again. In comparison, US President Joe Biden is a joker who can’t walk the talk.

Sitting Ducks

The mismatch between Russia and Ukraine is vast. The Russian Army has around 280,000 personnel and its combined armed forces total about 900,000, while its 2,840 battle tanks outnumber Ukraine’s by more than three to one. Ukraine’s armed forces add up to 361,000 personnel.

Ukraine is also a deeply divided nation. Corruption, mismanagement and suppression of opposition parties by the pro-Nazi leadership in Kiev have sapped the people’s morale.

Unlike the slick and televised wars of America, the Russians aren’t very PR savvy. The outside world doesn’t have much detail of Russian military operations at either the strategic or tactical levels. The Russian government still operates in the manner of the former Soviet Union and secrecy and suspicion of foreigners are second nature to it. Still, piecing together the scraps of information we have, here’s what likely happened:

Hours before the military action, Russian cyber assault cripples Ukrainian internet and signals communications. The political leadership in Kiev is isolated from its military. This is exactly what the US did in Iraq in both the Gulf Wars – in 1991 and 2003.

Next, the Russian Army unleashes a lethal barrage of non-nuclear Klub and Iskander-M cruise missiles that decapitate the Ukrainian military’s HQ, tactical command centres, radars, air defence missiles, anti-aircraft missile units and air force bases. A good number of Ukrainian jet fighters are probably destroyed on ground.

The Ukrainian Air Force may have thrown in the towel and hidden their jets in concrete pens or dispersed them to the western sector far from the Russian advance. Better to sit out the war and preserve aerial assets than take on the Russian Air Force and get wiped out. The Iraqi Air Force did precisely this in the second Gulf War when it fled to Iran in the face of heavy odds against coalition air forces.

The Russian Army now smashes into Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is vulnerable both to Russian artillery, traditionally the Russian Army’s most formidable arm, and the threat posed by Russian strike aircraft. The Russians also deploy the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system that effectively neutralises Ukraine’s small air force. Without air cover, the Ukrainian Army is completely exposed and vulnerable. On the other hand, it allows the Russian Army to advance without facing the threat of enemy air action.

The Ukrainian Navy is now militarily insignificant – more so since much of it appears to have been sunk in harbour within 24 hours of the beginning of hostilities. The Black Sea port of Odessa, Ukraine’s busiest port and largest oil and gas terminal, came under missile attack and is now in Russian control.

Russia’s Black Sea naval presence, which provides both military and economic leverage over Kiev, had been disrupting Ukraine’s maritime trade even before the invasion. Ukraine’s ports have seen traffic fall sharply in recent weeks. Following Thursday’s attack, Ukraine suspended operations at its sea ports. “It’s like a boa constrictor around Ukraine’s neck, squeezing and squeezing and squeezing,” said retired US Admiral James Foggo, former commander of US and NATO fleets in Europe.

However, being a conscript (not volunteer) army, most Russian soldiers aren’t very well-trained or of a professional level. Hence, they are unlikely to display good tactical qualities in firefights in strongly defended urban areas. It is possible that a few hundred rookie soldiers will get killed or become POWs.

In the Chechen War of 1994, thousands of poorly armed and unmotivated Russian soldiers were pushed into a meat grinder. This was incredible, considering that just three years ago the former Soviet Union had a powerful military machine. That’s the expected downside when conscripts have to do most of the fighting.

Making Short Work of Ukraine

But against the corrupt and shoddy Ukrainian Army, hobbled by an officer corps that believes in racist theories of superiority, the Russians won’t face prolonged resistance. Both Nazi Germany and the Pakistan Army lost because they believed they were racially superior to the Slavs and Hindus. Ukraine’s fate was cooked the moment it challenged Russia.

At any rate, even if it was a professional fighting force, there’s no way the Ukrainian military could have challenged the sheer numbers of troops, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, canons and rockets that Russia can throw at it.

In December 2021, the commander of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, General Kyrylo O. Budanov, said in an interview that once the Ukrainian military HQ was incapacitated, the responsibility for the country’s defence would fall on frontline commanders to carry on the fight alone. “They will hold up as long as there are bullets. They’ll be able to use what they have in their hands, but believe me, without delivery of reserves, there’s not an army in the world that can hold out.”

Finlandisation of Ukraine

The best possible outcome of this war is that the Russian bear will take out the corrupt, racist and bear-baiting leadership in Kiev and enforce the de-Nazification of the country. Ukraine can then adopt Finlandisation as the cornerstone of its foreign policy.

Finlandisation is the process whereby a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it (originally with reference to the influence of the former Soviet Union on its neighbour Finland).

Alternatively, the Ukrainian leaders, who were installed in Kiev in 2014 after a US-sponsored coup (known by its Orwellian name Revolution of Dignity) against the previous democratically elected government, will flee to Germany, England, Croatia or the US where they will get political asylum. That would also lead to Finlandisation.

Finlandisation isn’t a bad thing. It doesn’t mean a country is neutered, just that it ceases to offer space to the enemies of its much larger and powerful neighbour. For Finland, it resulted in a bunch of benefits.

A demilitarised border was the biggest spinoff for both countries. Free from the fear of a Russian invasion, Finland had a minimal defence budget during the entire Cold War. Finns concentrated on education and today they have the world’s best education system. The country gave the world Linux, Nokia and Angry Birds. Finland is famous for being the “Happiest Country in the World”.

Ukraine’s Opportunity

Compared to Finland, Ukraine has vastly greater resources, hundreds of heavy industries such as the Antonov Aircraft Bureau (a Soviet legacy) and a brilliant population (Sukhoi engines were designed by the Ukrainian scientist Lyulka). Ukraine could be Finland plus – a mega technology powerhouse.

But don’t bet on Ukraine acting sensibly. A large number of them are infected by the virus of hatred seeded by the US, UK and Germany, which prodded the Ukrainians to bait the bear. When the bear called the bluff, Ukraine was abandoned by its Western patrons.

The likes of “Yats” (former Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk) who was illegally installed by the (pure evil incarnate) Victoria Nuland and Hilary Clinton (who distributed biscuits to the violent organizers of the 2014 coup) are still around. Instead of seeing the writing on the wall, these Ukrainian leaders are calling for outside help. President Zelenskyy is asking NATO countries to supply troops to fight the Russians.

Putin claimed that Ukrainian nationalists were preparing to deploy multiple rocket launchers in residential areas of Ukrainian cities, including Kiev and the northeastern city of Kharkov. He said, Ukraine’s leaders are “acting like terrorists all over the world: they are hiding behind people in the hope of then blaming Russia for civilian casualties”.

The Ukrainian ambassador to India has invoked the Mahabharata and asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to intercede on Ukraine’s behalf. That’s rich coming from a country that consistently voted against India at the UN, supplied hundreds of T-80 tanks to Pakistan and criticised India for the 1998 nuclear tests.

Endgame

If the Russian Army goes back without finishing off the current leadership in Kiev, the vultures from Washington will descend on the rump Ukrainian state to again instigate the Ukrainians. The only hope for peace is if Putin ensures 100 percent de-Nazification and demilitarisation.

However, if the Ukrainian civilians dig in for a fight, the Russian President may not be prepared for a Battle of Berlin style charge into downtown Kiev that might result in thousands of casualties. Russians consider Ukraine as the cradle of Russian civilization. While Ukrainians would have no qualms slaughtering Russians, the people of Russia wouldn’t back a leader who causes large scale destruction in Ukraine. If Putin pulls back with the job half done, we are looking at a stalemate, with Ukraine destined to be a festering sore in Europe for decades.

– The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda