As I ‘download’ my thoughts for this piece, the Indian PM, along with other leaders of the Quad, namely, the President of USA, and the Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan, would have met physically in Tokyo, for only the second meeting of the Heads of State of the member nations. Nevertheless, this meeting carried a lot of significance and, hence, was much publicised.
A quick re-cap of what is the Quad. Formally, it is the abbreviated form of a loose partnership, initiated by USA, between the four nations after the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the Quad, was to provide humanitarian and disaster assistance to the affected regions, should the need arise in future. Formalised by the former Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in 2007, it was dormant for nearly a decade, particularly due to Australian concerns that China would be peeved due to its participation in the group.
The group got a fresh lease of life in 2017, surviving major leadership transitions in USA and Japan, and internal differences, right up to the present ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This was possible because of changing attitudes in the region toward China’s growing economic and military influence. The Quad, since its leaders’ first formal physical summit in 2021, and later meeting again virtually in March this year, has grown in profile and widened its scope of cooperation. The US perceived the Quad as the key to a pivot towards placing more focus on the Indo-Pacific region, particularly as a counterweight to China’s assertive actions in the area. From being a “marginal body”, the White House now describes the Quad as “a premier regional grouping . . . on issues that matter to the Indo-Pacific.”
China, from the very announcement of the formation of the Quad, has disapproved of the group, terming it as an attempt at forming an “Asian NATO”; unlike the European alliance, however, there is no mutual-defence pact in effect. While the Quad members emphasise that the group is meant to deepen economic, diplomatic and military ties among the four countries, there is an underlying motive too, for this partnership to act as a bulwark against any Chinese economic or military aggressions. China, obviously, is “deeply offended’ by the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, calling it “a ploy to create divisions amongst the Asian nations, to incite confrontations and undermine peace”.
Nonetheless, the group has much more that it needs to do. Despite the progress the Quad has made on a range of critical non-security issues, including technology, health, cybersecurity, and climate change, it must do more to deliver on its core security goals. Amid the growing profile, activities, and a new significance, the key test for the Quad depends on how each of the nations respond to any provocations by China. Despite China’s repeated assertions of its ‘peaceful rise’ and ‘win-win actions’, its increased assertiveness in the region, whether with regard to territorial and maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas and elsewhere, the vagueness of its low-interest loans, the strategic impact of the One-Belt-One-Road initiative, the lack of reciprocity in economic relations, or the use of economic leverage, has raised concerns, not just among the Quad partners, but also amongst the other nations in the region. Quad members, hence, should not lose sight of security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, which would strikingly influence the balance of power in the region.
Not to discredit the security activities conducted thus far, the Quad has had discussions on Myanmar, Afghanistan, North Korea, and maritime security in the region. Apart from the Malabar exercises between US-Indian navies, with some add-ons, there have been ad hoc exercises with Canada, South Korea, and the UK. However, the security cooperation among the members remains primarily bilateral. The members have 2+2 dialogues with each other involving their respective defence and foreign ministers, while also having their militaries to have staff talks and conduct exercises. The militaries have also signed logistics-sharing agreements, with structured meetings on maritime security, defence technology, and counter-terrorism.
Nonetheless, a lot more needs to be done. A first area should be that of information and intelligence sharing, not just restricted to the maritime domain. The second area of focus should be operational cooperation. This would include cross-servicing, resupply – including mid-air refuelling – and a host of such other activities. The third area could be of building defence capacity, through the emerging challenge of resource constraint.
If the Quad has to maintain a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, the member nations need to focus on consolidating and sustaining the existing initiatives. It does not need to add more members – although New Zealand and South Korea have expressed their keenness – it can definitely involve other nations on an as-required basis of their needs and capabilities. This will require the careful acceptance of the concerns of the other nations in the region, and building trust to tackle economic and strategic vulnerabilities that may arise from events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or the Covid pandemic.
The attendance of the Indian PM at the Quad meeting in Tokyo, comes at a time when the country’s economy is trying to recover after the devastating pandemic, and when the Russia-Ukraine war is testing the prowess of the Indian diplomats. India’s actions on the aforementioned issues and others, have drawn global scrutiny. The government’s crackdown on minorities and some authoritarian tendencies have been adversely commented upon in the foreign media. In addition, while the other members of the Quad have been united in standing up against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially by imposing severe sanctions, India has maintained a neutral stance, while increasing its purchases of Russian energy supplies at concessional rates. The invasion has led to world-wide food shortages that are causing price spikes, yet India has banned wheat exports following a record-breaking heat wave that could make this global challenge much tougher to resolve. Notwithstanding these issues and others, geopolitical shifts are creating new opportunities, making visible a new pattern of growth and relations.
While greater cooperation among Quad members in the Indo-Pacific was the prime agenda of the leaders’ discussions, their meeting assumed further significance in the wake of Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine. The US Congress recently sanctioned a new $ 40 billion aid package for Ukraine (despite opposition from a few Republican senators), while Japan has said it would extend $ 300 million in loans to Ukraine, trebling its initial offer.
As was expected, the meeting concluded with the leaders discussing means to strengthen security, economic, health and climate ties, wanting to send a strong message to China. To strengthen security in the region, (probably keeping China’s advance into the Solomon Islands, but without any mention of it) an announcement for the creation of the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) was made. The IPMDA is expected to give a fillip to the ability of partners in the Pacific Islands, SE Asia, and the Indian Ocean region (IOR) to monitor the waters on their shores, to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific. In lay-man terms, this would allow the tracking of ‘dark shipping’ – not just smuggling, but gun-running, human trafficking et al – on the shipping lanes, and also monitor any hostile naval movement. For India, its Information Fusion Centre that monitors the IOR, would now be able to receive and share information with other such centres.
As aforementioned about the desirable agenda, the leaders also agreed to give an impetus to cyber-security through joint cyber principles to increase resilience against vulnerabilities and prevent cyber accidents. In addition, the member nations agreed to share civil information from space-based data, to set the stage for disaster mitigation and timely assistance. Apart from these issues, the other items on the agenda were health, climate, and prosperity through a common economic platform. To achieve the latter goal, a platform, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), was launched; apart from the Quad members, it includes Brunei, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – 13 countries which contribute 40 percent of the global GDP.
Considering that this was only the second in-person meeting of the Quad leaders, and that the group was almost discarded to the dustbin, it is indeed an indication of the region coming under the international spotlight. The scope of the group has widened, and the achievements thus far, are an indication of better days to follow. China has been extremely perturbed by the meet, as is obvious from its many statements; it was the first issue to be discussed with the Quad agreeing to maintain peace and stability in the region. Another prickly issue – at least for India – was the Russia-Ukraine war. However, India’s role was appreciated as having remained neutral throughout and its insistence of a dialogue between the warring factions, as the only means to end the conflict. A surprising congratulatory statement was issued by China to the new Australian PM, on his winning the election and attending the meeting just a day after assuming office, leading many to conjecture whether this was a feeler to melt the frozen relations between the two nations!
The Quad meeting ended with the usual joint statement vowing their “steadfast commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient”. While the joint statement did not contain any mention of China, but it did contain a veiled caution: “We strongly oppose any coercive, provocative or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo and increase tensions in the area, such as the militarization of disputed features, the dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia, and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities”. No small wonder that China is upset!
Will India move any closer to its Quad partners on Russia’s war on Ukraine? With the continuing political, and economic mayhem in South Asia – the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, and the political upheaval in Pakistan – can the Quad come up with a concerted action plan in the region where it seeks to counter Chinese influence? With China waiting in the shadows, awaiting its turn to overrun Taiwan, can the Quad provide answers to avert the situation?
These are just some of the key questions to track!
–The writer is an IAF veteran. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
