On July 6, 2026, China fired a long-range ballistic missile in the South Pacific. The missile fired from a nuclear-powered submarine carried a dummy or simulated training warhead and landed in designated waters in the Pacific. Beijing stated that the missile test was a routine part of China’s annual military programme, and that prior notifications had been given. Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the US condemned the Chinese action, terming it destabilising for the region.
The Chinese missile test on the afternoon of July 6 was apparently in response to Australia and Fiji signing a defence treaty on the morning of the same day (July 6), during an official visit by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to Suva, Fiji. The defence agreement explicitly pledges full Australian support to protect Fiji’s sovereignty in the event of an attack by an outside force. Australia committed to a $1 billion (AUD) investment in Fiji over the next 10 years to enhance infrastructure, climate resilience, and defence capabilities. Under the pact, both nations will collaborate closely to tackle cross-border Pacific challenges, focusing heavily on maritime security, human trafficking, transnational crime, and climate change responses. According to The Guardian, this Australia-Fiji alliance acts as a direct counter-strategy by Australia to check China’s growing military and policing influence across Indo-Pacific island nations.
Quad stands demoted from the Heads of State level to the Foreign Ministers’ level. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth mentioned ‘Pacific’ instead of ‘Indo-Pacific’ while speaking at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Australia from July 8 to July 10, 2026, for the 3rd India-Australia Annual Summit. During Modi’s visit, India and Australia adopted a new ‘Joint Declaration on Defence and Security Cooperation’ (building on the 2020 Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement), as well as unveiling a Joint Maritime Security Collaboration Roadmap. The updated framework includes quasi-alliance provisions to consult on regional developments affecting shared security, enhanced information-sharing, as well as a decision by Canberra to invite an Indian military instructor to serve at the Australian Defence College for the first time. This updated framework is designed to counter growing regional security uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indian media, quoting government sources, described the India-Australia Joint Declaration on Defence and Security Cooperation and the Joint Maritime Security Collaboration Roadmap as a deliberate move to keep Washington engaged amid mounting concerns over China’s expanding military capabilities, and Australia intensifying its military co-operation with India in an effort to give the Quad partnership with Japan and the US greater substance.
As Modi began his two-day visit to Melbourne, his arrival was witnessed by Sikh separatists waving Khalistani flags and sloganeering in the city’s central business district for Modi to go back and take all Indians back with him. Such protests are also seen in the US, the UK and Canada, including against Indian missions and temples. The excuse by these countries is that these protests are not violent, but such protests are tools for politico-social signalling-cum-pressuring India. India needs to pay back in the same coin when dignitaries from these countries visit India to end such nonsense. Surely intelligence agencies of these countries have advance information of these protests.
The US no longer wants to promote India as a strategic partner and instead views it as a potential economic rival. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau has said, “India should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago”
During Modi’s visit to New Zealand from July 11 to July12, 2026, both nations agreed to cooperate in deterring narcotics smuggling, terrorism, and illicit maritime activity in the Middle East and the western Indian Ocean. Modi noted that as maritime nations, both share an interest in a free and open Indo-Pacific; both agreed to strengthen maritime cooperation, including through the newly concluded Maritime Cooperation Arrangement (MCA).
Indo-Japanese defence relations received a boost during Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to India from July 1 to July 3, 2026, for the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit. India and Japan unveiled a 16-point roadmap to deepen their Special Strategic and Global Partnership, signalling a major expansion of cooperation beyond traditional trade and investment. Both leaders unveiled three key policy documents on economic security, artificial intelligence and energy resilience, alongside a series of agreements across emerging technologies, mobility, critical minerals and financial services.
Takaichi’s visit saw concrete steps on security cooperation, with Takaichi stressing that India and Japan made progress on defence equipment transfer and agreed to hold a 2+2 ministerial meeting this year, which signals deeper coordination between the foreign and defence ministries of both countries. Discussions between both leaders centred on expanding collaboration across advanced manufacturing, defence components and precision engineering; sectors where Indian companies like Bharat Forge have established a strong footprint and where Japan is keen to secure dependable supply chains. The summit concluded with a reaffirmation of commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific and to building resilient supply chains in a period of global uncertainty.
The 3rd India-Australia Annual Summit and the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit, as well as the references for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, are being cited as concrete measures for strengthening the Quad (which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia), to counter the growing Chinese power. China’s missile launch is not only to showcase capability but also to gauge Indo-Pacific reactions to China’s growing reach, as viewed by Nathan Attrill of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; Beijing is signalling its ability to project power far beyond the Taiwan Strait in any future crisis, imposing strategic pressure across the region. He also underscored India’s leverage in regional security dynamics, including the chokepoint of the Straits of Malacca.
It is quite evident that the US will not engage China directly in a conflict in the Indian Ocean, preferring to fire the gun on India’s shoulders. Ironically, the Indian hierarchy fails to understand that both China and the US are bullies who will mount on your head if you don’t look them in the eye
The origin of the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ is traced to German geopolitical scholar Karl Haushofer, who used it in the 1920s in his work, ‘Indopazifischen Raum’. Japan was among the first countries to use the phrase ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’. From 2017 onwards, the US adopted the concept, as reflected in its National Security Strategy 2017, National Defence Strategy 2018, and Indo-Pacific Strategy Report 2019. In June 2019, ASEAN released its ‘Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’, centred on the principles of ASEAN centrality through ASEAN-led mechanisms like the East Asia Summit (EAS).
On June 16, 2026, the US announced that US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) would revert to its 1947 name, U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), calling it a restoration of deep historical roots, insisting that the command’s area of responsibility remains unchanged. However, it is clear that Donald Trump is limiting the US to the ‘Pacific’. In addition, this was another signal of a US strategic reorientation in Asia. Quad stands demoted from the Heads of State level to the Foreign Ministers’ level. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth mentioned ‘Pacific’ instead of ‘Indo-Pacific’ while speaking at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore.
Donald Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy highlights the need for the US to build and “field the world’s most powerful, lethal and technologically advanced military” to protect its interests. Robust, credible, and modern nuclear deterrents and next-generation missile defences are regarded as a sine qua non. Economic nationalism is a recurrent theme. NSS 2025 indicates a continuum of a major Trump demand from NSS 2017, that allies and partners must do more heavy-lifting by way of burden sharing and spending more on defence; NATO allies are to spend 5% of GDP on defence, in accordance with the Hague commitment, the success of which is attributed to the megalomaniac President Trump.
S Jaishankar’s much-vaunted multi-alignment policy hasn’t really worked. Modi travelled for 18 hours by train (from Poland to Ukraine and back) to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, and later hugged Zelensky at other forums. But Trump is not impressed since he wants India to break with Russia
Interestingly, China now leads in 66 out of 74 critical technology areas, a notable shift from the early 2000s when the US led in over 90% of such technologies, according to the 2025 Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Critical Technology Tracker. Trump does not consider China an enemy, since such an adversarial approach is considered fundamentally counterproductive, according to Michael Pillsbury. This is also because Trump has discovered he cannot decouple from China and wants to seal a trade deal with Beijing.
The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet in New Delhi on May 26, 2026, mainly focussed on: maritime surveillance in the Indo-Pacific, enhancing information sharing and maritime domain awareness capacity; new Critical Minerals Initiative Framework; Quad Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security; Quad countries to work with Fiji, to advance port infrastructure and associated activities in the country; advancing prosperity and national security across the Indo-Pacific; collaborate on Next-Gen Communication Standards. This project will focus on promoting Telecommunications and Open RAN technical standards collaboration; USD 6 million awards for six international research projects; cooperation in Humanitarian Assistance and Emergency Response.
What appears to be difficult to digest in India is that for Donald Trump, the Quad is replaced with ‘Squad’; comprising the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines – all four being military allies bound by treaties. More destabilising is Donald Trump’s administration establishing secure ties with Pakistan, aiming to contain Chinese forays into the Indian Ocean, Middle East and Iran, which also helps to counter-balance India.
It is also noticeable that the US is dealing directly with India’s immediate neighbourhood, sidelining India. In so far as the US-China security and economic rivalry goes, India is a tool in an India-China war for Trump to advance America’s strategic and economic interests. It would be naïve not to acknowledge this reality just because Trump invited Modi to be a part of the Board of Peace for Gaza, and join the Pax Silica for securing critical supply chains.
China views India as being in the US camp. Russia is unhappy with India’s stand on Iran. Views have been expressed that when Iran invited Modi for the state funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at least the Vice President should have represented India, but Modi feared this would annoy Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu
The stark reality is that the US no longer wants to promote India as a strategic partner and instead views it as a potential economic rival whose rise must be controlled. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau made this explicitly clear in New Delhi in March 2026, saying, “India should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago.” American forays in Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka reiterate this, as also the US Navy firing on tankers with Indian crew. Moreover, the US bombed Iran’s Chabahar Port, destroying the maritime control tower at the Shahid Kalantari terminal, and damaging the Shahid Beheshti berth built by India – restricting India from connecting with the Taliban by air. The Trump administration’s definitive tilt towards Pakistan and structured accommodation of China are here to stay at least during Trump’s presidency, if not beyond. Isn’t this why Trump is withdrawing from multilateral organisations, leaving the field open for China?
The much-vaunted multi-alignment policy by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar hasn’t really worked. Modi travelled for 18 hours by train (from Poland to Ukraine and back) to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, and later hugged Zelensky at other forums. But Trump is not impressed since he wants India to break with Russia. China continues to view India in the American camp. Both Russia and China are not happy with the Indian stance towards Iran. Views have been expressed that when Iran invited Modi for the state funeral of late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint US-Israel strike, at least the Vice President should have represented India, but Modi feared this would annoy Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
India will naturally continue to focus on the Indian Ocean with increasing Chinese presence in the IOR. With the US permitting China’s militarisation of the East and South China Seas over the years amid the charade of Freedom of Navigation Operations (which don’t scare China), it is quite evident that the US will not engage China directly in a conflict in the Indian Ocean, preferring to fire the gun on India’s shoulders. Ironically, the Indian hierarchy fails to understand that both China and the US are bullies, who will mount on your head if you don’t look them in the eye. Why are they so scared of sanctions and tariffs, even tilting to Trump’s threats in a forum like BRICS – is it the fear of getting individually politically unseated? How much is India going to bend – can’t we learn from a small country like Spain?
True multi-alignment will be India improving its relations with Iran and energising the Russia-India-China (RIC) Dialogue. Where India is participating in forums like BRICS, SCO, Quad, I2U2, G4, G20, IBSA, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, SAARC and Commonwealth of Nations, why the scare of holding RIC Heads of State Dialogue – giving the right message to the Trump Administration. Where Trump is called Satan’s Own, Modi calls himself non-biological. Finally, given the faith in mythology and belief in Karma, Trump can make no change to how long Modi is destined to rule India. Why then the fear?
The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
