Tel Aviv: The new close cooperation between Russia and Iran on the production and further development of armed drones creates a double threat. Iran may use its proxies around the world for performing terror acts and Russia may use Iran as a subcontractor to perform retaliation against western countries that help Ukraine.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar an Israeli senior analyst on Islamic issues told Raksh Anirveda that there are no free launches and that will be proven again by the effects of the Russia- Iran coalition.
“The Russians unlike the Americans do not desert their allies. With this in mind, Moscow will first use its veto in the UN Security Council to kill any organized move against Tehran. In addition the Russians will help Iran in getting ready to operate against western targets. Remember that no one will open a Russian diplomatic package and you can figure what this alone gives the Iranian net of terror. This is a coalition of evil.”
Israeli sources said that the new production site Russia is building for the different types of the Iranian armed drones will become a “huge problem” especially after the end of the war in Ukraine where Moscow will want to retaliate against all countries that have been assisting Ukraine.
Dr. Jennifer Shkabatur, a specialist on Russian issues said that Moscow will look at retaliation against countries that supported Ukraine as the continuation of the war
“Moscow sees this war as one of the west against Russia”.
Shkabatur is an Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.
This assessment is shared by many experts in Israel and that is why the increasing military cooperation between Russia and Iran is becoming an acute problem that many western countries will have to take into account and get ready to deal with.
In recent analysis the researchers of the Alama center in Israel warned against the threat posed to the US and Europe from the Iranian armed drones.
Researchers Tal Beeri and Yakov Lapin write that they believe that the direct threat that Iranian weapons could pose to the United States and Western European nations is being understated. They added that Venezuela will most likely pose a direct threat to the US while the threat to European countries will come from the North African region (Western Sahara for example) or the Russia-Belarus region.
They point to the fact that It is possible to launch an armed drone from an “innocent” merchant ship traveling in busy international maritime routes close to the coast.
The researchers say that It is now necessary for NATO nations under the direction of the United States to actively participate on in halting Iranian armament development and manufacturing.
“Today, the Iranian UAV army is operating against Ukraine. In the future, it may act against other European countries, and even the United States may find itself defending Miami territory from the Iranian UAV army launched from Venezuela.”
The researchers further added that it must be realized that Venezuela, which is literally in the “backyard” of the United States, is regarded as a close partner of Iran and that, symbolically, the Iranian leadership sees Venezuela as a part of the radical Shiite axis. About 2,000 kilometres separate Venezuela and Florida. This range they say is relevant to several Iranian UAVs’ capabilities (such as the Shahad 136 and the Mahjar 6 operating in Ukraine).
The Israeli researchers say that International sanctions do not hinder Iran’s UAV production sector. Sanctions are mostly ineffectual because many of the parts utilized in this business are readily available civilian off-the-shelf parts that can be bought online.
While Israel has taken steps to be ready for Iranian armed UAV’s attacks, Israeli sources said that other countries are less prepared for this emerging threat.
Maj. General (Ret.) Amos Ydlin told Raksha Anirveda that it is too early to assess what Russia and Iran will do in the future based on the current cooperation.
“This cooperation is based on mutual benefits. The Russians get the Iranian armed UAV and Iran will likely get SU-35 Russian made fighter aircraft. It is not clear who will win the Ukraine war and that is why it is too early to forecast what will happen after the ends. ”
Yadlin is a former general in the Israeli Air Force (IAF), Israel Defense Forces military attaché to Washington, DC, and head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate.
While the issue being evaluated now is the close military cooperation between Russia and Iran and its possible implications for other western countries,Tehran is now directly threatening Europe over the proposed listing of IRGC as a terrorist organization, being considered by the EU.
According to the Iran International website, operated from London by Iranian opposition the Iranian leadership sent a direct threat to Europe after a meeting, of the Iranian parliament.
According to the report , the speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a statement saying,
“We will have actions on the agenda against European armed forces in the region.”