It is said that in politics, there are no permanent friends or foes, only permanent interests. As that is the case, the current thaw and the ongoing rapprochement of ties between India and China are signs of how two prominent economies in the world are in the process of pressing the ‘reset’ button in their contentious relations.
The ties soured by the Galwan clash in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020; India and China deployed nearly 50,000-60,000 troops on the border backed by heavy state-of-the-art artillery and armoured divisions to maintain vigil.
This, however, ended up undermining the Sino-Indian relationship, which was on the mend since the Doklam crisis. However, five years down the line, a slow but steady process of restructuring ties is currently underway. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently visited India to build on the momentum of the reset and announced a slew of measures to instill confidence among his Indian partners that China seeks to repair the damage in ties.
With 25% tariffs on Indian goods plus another 25% as a ‘penalty’ for buying Russian oil, the US seems determined to turn the clock back to the days of the Cold War, when the ties between the two countries were frosty at best and hostile at their worst
India, on its part, has argued that ‘differences’ must not become ‘disputes’ and also sought to reciprocate. Having said that, the Sino-Indian welcome change in ties must be looked at from a bigger geopolitical and geostrategic perspective.
Balancing Europe
As far as the Indian motivation in seeking a change in the status quo in its ties with China is concerned, India is guided by the belief that a balancing act with Europe needs to be carried out, as its ties with America have worsened.
For India, Europe, represented by the EU, is a vital strategic partner. The EU is one of the largest bilateral trade partners and is an important ally in terms of cooperation across various sectors such as rare earth minerals, semiconductors, defence, technology, education, and R&D.
After signing an ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the UK, India is currently negotiating an FTA with the European Union.
This is essentially seen in foreign policy circles as an attempt by India to insulate its burgeoning ties with the EU from prying American eyes. Further, India’s balanced approach to the conflict in Ukraine, given that it enjoys a privileged and strategic partnership with Russia, is also seen as tightrope diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine.
The thawing of ties with China is part of forging a new nexus, possibly within BRICS, to form a new de-dollarisation alliance, which must try all mechanisms to reduce dependence on the American currency, despite challenges
Hedging Against America
With the imposition of 25% tariffs on Indian goods plus another 25% as a ‘penalty’ for buying Russian oil, the current American presidency seems determined to turn the clock back to the days of the Cold War, when the ties between the two countries were frosty at best and hostile at their worst.
Not only is the imposition of tariffs on India by the United States an act of sheer absurdity, but it is an action reflective of naïve diplomacy. By pushing India into a corner, the United States risks India exploring alternative options, which it has already begun.
During his state visit to Moscow, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar highlighted the importance of the Indo-Russian strategic partnership. Further, he held talks with his Russian counterpart to solidify the negotiations on an FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union. As a part of India’s attempts to bridge the massive trade deficit with Moscow, India has urged Russia to invest more in the Indian economy and invited Russian companies to take part in the India story.
The thawing of ties with China is a part of forging a new nexus, possibly within BRICS, to form a new de-dollarisation alliance, which must try all mechanisms in a slow and calibrated manner to reduce dependence on the American currency, despite challenges.
S Jaishankar’s state visit to Russia should be viewed as an attempt by New Delhi to reassure a strategic partner that, notwithstanding the current pressure in ties thanks to American tariffs, India will not jettison this trusted partnership
Reassuring Russia
The state visit by External Affairs Minister Jaishankar should be viewed as an attempt by New Delhi to reassure a strategic partner that, notwithstanding the current pressure in ties thanks to American tariffs, India will not jettison this trusted partnership.
Based on this perception, India welcomed the possibility of a peace deal between the US and Russia in the recently concluded Alaska summit. New Delhi, therefore, is well aware that a possible ceasefire or peace deal between the two countries would ease New Delhi’s concerns in at least one theatre of conflict.
Further, the improvement of ties between Russia and the USA would also mean that Europe, sooner or later, will have to accept the changed situation on the ground. Overall, it is very clear that the ongoing geopolitical flux will require new and creative solutions from New Delhi to deliver the most optimal outcomes.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
