Sri Lanka: End to Crisis Not Easy

In no way the Sri Lankan crisis will be over in at least next one year or so as the International Monetary Forum is delaying to have a deal with Colombo. Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe has blamed unrest as the reason for the IMF’s delay in wrapping up the talks on the distribution of loans to the island nation

By Shankar Kumar

Admin Foreign Affairs

Sri Lanka needs around $7 billion this year to repay loans taken from foreign countries. In May, it defaulted on its debt repayment.  It had to pay $78 million to service its loans by May 13, but with coffer almost empty, the then government under Gotabaya Rajapaksa found it difficult to meet its obligation.

 

Invariably, Sri Lanka’s condition presents a scary picture. With everyday passing, the country inches closer to face its worst humanitarian crisis and political outfits not happy with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, are working hard to ensure that the country hurtles towards that situation, invariably showing their callous and irresponsible behaviour towards the nation which is in the dire need of political stability.

However, at the same time, there is a fact that people’s trust on politicians in the country has diminished and, in that situation, whether the all-party government will be able to deliver as per wishes of 22 million people is a million-dollar question. In this atmosphere of distrust and hopelessness, the country’s military has refused to take over power. But the incumbent government-led by Ranil Wickremesinghe is very much dependent on the army to prevent protestors from creating further chaos.

 

For President Wickremesinghe, who made the Army to swoop on protestors on the night of July 21 and got the presidential secretariat in Colombo evicted out of them, the military is a crutch for him to walk in the power corridor of his country. His unpopularity among Sri Lankans who burnt his house in Colombo, infringes on his ability to influence masses with his opinions, even if they are positive ones.

As the prevailing situation suggests, he will not be able to run the country without support from the country’s army. His election as the country’s interim President could be possible with the help of lawmakers belonging to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), a party that is controlled by the Rajapaksa family. As a result, people don’t see him as different from Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

 

Therefore, howsoever strong defence Wickremesinghe may put up in his favour, he can’t be seen as independent from the much-maligned Rajapaksas. This is why protestors have not completely vanished from the island nation’s streets, they are still sitting, though in small numbers, at Gota Go Gama, the key protesting site in Colombo. They are demanding Wickremesinghe’s immediate stepping down from the presidential chair.

They hold him equally responsible for the unprecedented crisis in the island country. Yet it is a fact that Wickremesinghe is a highly experienced leader as he has been Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister for a record 6-time and enjoys wide connections across the world. His immediate challenge will be to bring in peace and political stability in Sri Lanka as without it, the IMF will not open its purse for the country.

So far it looks difficult for President Wickremesinghe to surmount the challenges emanating from food, fuel and medicine shortages. Yet given that more than $1 billion credit line of the total $3.8 billion offered by India to Sri Lanka remains unutilised, Colombo can seek shipments of oil, food and other necessary goods from India and bring some immediate respite to citizens in the country.

To run his government, Wickremesinghe has appointed Dinesh Gunawardena, a hard-core leftist leader and close ally of Rajapaksas as Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister. Dinesh Gunawardena has been Foreign Minister, Education Minister and Home Minister of Sri Lanka and always remained loyal to the Rajapaksa family. Irrefutably, in more than one way, the Rajapaksa family’s shadow will continue to remain over the new political system in Sri Lanka. And, this is what is going to give the youth’s movement ‘Janatha Aragalaya’ fodder to continue protests in the island nation. It is in this background some experts have rightly said Sri Lanka needs a superman to clear the mess.

This mess is both political and economic in nature and Sri Lanka can’t afford to neglect one for another. If experts are to be believed, both need careful approach as any imbalance in their respective management will lead to disaster. And, in this context President Wickremesinghe’s statement that this is not the right time for ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to return to the country assumes high significance. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Wickremesinghe said, “I don’t believe it’s the right time for him to return.”

Sri Lankan lawmaker and Cabinet Spokesperson Bandula Gunawardena created a flutter a few days back when he said ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country on July 13 along with his wife to Maldives, before making his way to Singapore on July 14, was not in hiding and he would return to the country. He didn’t give the date of his return.

Sri Lankan lawmaker and Cabinet Spokesperson Bandula Gunawardena created a flutter a few days back when he said ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country on July 13 along with his wife to Maldives, before making his way to Singapore on July 14, was not in hiding and he would return to the country

Since then, speculation has swirled about the ex-President’s comeback. Given the circumstance he fled the country, leaving behind widespread unrest over the unprecedented economic crisis, his return means plunging the whole country into a dark spell of uncertainty and social disorder. Even if he faces immediate arrest on his return, his presence on the Sri Lankan soil will further provoke anger among people, thereby ruining the country’s tough task to bring back normalcy. It may impact donor countries’ decision to extend financial help and needle the IMF to further delay the process of disbursement of loans to the island nation.

Amid this, there are media reports, suggesting the Sri Lankan government in early May received inputs from Indian intelligence agencies that ex-LTTE are regrouping to carry out attacks in the crisis-ridden island nation. Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defence has termed these reports as baseless. However, it is fact that Sri Lankan Tamils, living in different corners of the world remember May 18 as Tamil Genocide Remembrance Day.

They don’t nurse a sanguine and positive feeling towards Rajapaksas—both ex-PM Mahinda Rajapaksa and his younger brother and former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. There is also a fact that India’s anti-terror outfit, the National Investigation Agency had nabbed a senior intelligence operative of the defunct LTTE in Chennai in October 2021. Initial probe by the NIA revealed that suspected intelligence operative Satkunam alias Sabesan, a Sri Lankan Tamil, had transferred a huge amount of money to LTTE sympathisers to revive the outfit in the island country.

As per the NIA, Satkunam had also arranged conspiracy meetings of LTTE sympathisers in India. Therefore, it is hard to rubbish that the defunct LTTE has no sympathisers and they are not trying to revive the deadly group smashed out of its existence by the Sri Lankan army in 2009.

In January 2022, the Tamil Nadu police busted an international network of former members of erstwhile LTTE who had links with the group’s operatives based in different European countries and drew huge money from dormant accounts using fake documents. This money used to be transferred to different bank accounts in India and abroad in the names of individuals or companies for the revival of LTTE movement.

–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda