For the past 75 years the Indian Air Force has displayed complete disinterest in acquiring a strategic arm, remaining content with operating at the theatre level within the geographical confines of the subcontinent. Despite having the task of defending such a large country and confronted with the possibility of a collusive two-front attack by China and Pakistan – it has spurned suggestions from the political leadership to go for a dedicated bomber fleet. This strategic inertia may finally become history. With China’s first intercontinental deep strike bomber, the H-20, nearing its first flight, and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force deploying the 6,000 km range Xian H-6K in Tibet, the IAF brass has hinted it may acquire Russia’s formidable Tupolev Tu-160 – the fastest and largest bomber ever built.

Codenamed ‘Blackjack’ by NATO, the Tu-160 is a true behemoth of the skies. Spanning more than half a football field (54 metres) from wingtip to wingtip, and weighing 110 tons, it dwarfs the 17-ton Sukhoi Su-30, which is currently India’s heaviest warplane. But it’s the aircraft’s speed and range that make it a truly potent weapons delivery platform. Able to fly well over 20,000 km nonstop (with aerial refuelling) and having a payload capacity of 40 tons, the Mach 2 bomber can take off from Thanjavur Air Force base, fly subsonic or supersonic towards the South China Sea, and release up to 12 cruise missiles (conventional or nuclear) aimed at Chinese economic targets on the eastern seaboard and its political leadership. After the 7,600 km round trip the pilots can go home and watch the damage on CNN.

Like the Tu-22M Backfire, which Russia uses as a maritime strike bomber, the Tu-160 could be equipped to receive data directly from spy satellites. India has a constellation of ocean survey and spy satellites which constantly keep track of Chinese warships entering the Indian Ocean. Using this real time data, the Tu-160s can be vectored towards Chinese carrier battle groups which can then be targeted with anti-ship missiles. The bombers can also be guided by scout aircraft.

During the development of the Tu-160, the designers at Tupolev had planned for a version equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles that could take out American AWACs and aerial tankers. However, this version never got off the drawing board due to funding issues. The IAF could modify the aircraft for the AWAC-killing role by arming the Blackjack with the indigenous Astra Mark 3 – a 300 km range air-to-air missile which is likely to be tested by 2024. The Astra’s speed of 5,556 kph – two times faster than a bullet – means it would be able to hit targets with a huge amount of kinetic energy. The Tu-160’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to such a missile.

Another major spinoff is the Tu-160 will amplify Beijing’s “Malacca Dilemma”. Since a large part of China’s trade and nearly 80 per cent of its oil supplies pass through the narrow (65 km wide) waterway, long-range strikes by the IAF can bottle up Chinese merchant and naval fleets within this body of water. This will not only choke the flow of oil flowing from the Gulf and Africa to China but also grind down the country’s export-oriented economy.

Clearly, a versatile and multirole aircraft like the Tu-160 would be a huge force multiplier for India.

Strategic straitjacket

The IAF has a variety of specialised fighters, ground attack jets and multirole aircraft in its fleet, but a strategic bomber has never figured in its war plans. In fact, in mid-1971 (when war with Pakistan seemed imminent) Russia offered the Tu-22M Backfire as a strategic bomber, but the IAF rejected the offer. According to defence analyst Bharat Karnad, the “reasons trotted out verged on the farcical”.

Karnad explains: “What showcased the IAF’s apparent institutional reluctance against transforming itself into a strategic force, however, was the decision by the Air Chief Marshal PC Lal-led regime to reject in mid-1971 the Soviet offer of the Tu-22 Backfire strategic bomber. The reasons trotted out verged on the farcical.”

“As Wing Commander (later Air Marshal) C.V. Gole, member of the Air Marshal Sheodeo Singh Mission to Moscow and test pilot, who flew the (Backfire) informed me, he was appalled by the fact that he had to be winched up into the cockpit, and that the plane would have to take-off from as far east as Bareilly to reach cruising altitude over Pakistan! Evidently China didn’t figure in the threat perceptions of the Air Headquarters at the time, nor has it done so since then.”

“IAF’s doggedly defensive-tactical thinking married to theatre-level capabilities have ensured its minimal usefulness in crises and conflicts.”

Chinese bomber threat

What has changed in 2022 is that provocative deployments of Chinese bombers in Tibet and a huge qualitative improvement in the bomber fleet of the PLA Air Force have woken up the IAF from its 75-year strategic paralysis.

In November 2021, media reports indicated that the PLA Air Force had deployed at least one long-range H-6K bomber near the disputed northern border. On November 11, the 72nd PLA Air Force Day, China’s state-run broadcaster broadcast footage of the bomber flying over a mountain range, implying that it had been sent to the Himalayas.

Another looming threat is the H-20 stealth bomber. Photos released by China North Industries Corporation (Norinco) in its Modern Weaponry monthly magazine show the fighter has a flying wing design, a weapons bay, two adjustable tail wings and a frontal airborne radar. It also has stealth air intakes on both sides and is covered in dark grey radar-absorbent material.

The bat shaped aircraft – which seems to be a copy of the American B-2 Spirit – will reportedly have a payload of 45 tons and can fly at high subsonic speeds. It can carry a wide range of precision-guided weapons such as smart bombs, land-attack cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles. With a reported 8,000 km combat radius, it will be able to hit any city in India.

Considering these developments, the IAF may have felt the need to acquire strategic bombers – a symbol of deterrence that could come in handy against both its nuclear-armed neighbours.

It’s a real beast

Strategic bombers – as opposed to tactical bombers, fighter-bombers and attack aircraft – are built to fly deep into enemy territory and destroy strategic targets like major infrastructure, logistical facilities, military installations, and factories. They are used in air interdiction operations to attack enemy combatants and military equipment. These are tasks that the Tu-160 performs effortlessly.

The Tu-160’s primary role was to take off from its base in Saratov in southern Russia, assemble in echelon over the Arctic Ocean, and fly screaming in towards North America. The crew would approach at low altitude to minimise detection range, using the aircraft’s Sopka terrain-following radar to avoid ground collision. Passive warning receivers would inform the crew once they were detected, at which point they could employ a self-defence radar jammer and fire up the afterburners to surge to Mach 2 to evade interceptors. Then from a safe standoff distance the crew would release its complement of up to 12 turbofan-powered Kh-55 cruise missiles, each carrying a 250 kiloton nuclear warhead or 17 times the yield of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

While the Kh-55s can be programmed to hit targets up to 2,500 km away, the Kh-55SM has a range of 3,000 km. A nuclear raid by a squadron of just 12 Tu-160s can devastate nearly all the large urban centres in the US.

Bang for the buck?

Built during the Cold War when speed, payload and range mattered more than cost, the heavy T-160 is an expensive to operate and maintain bomber. The general consensus was that deploying it against high value assets alone makes sense. However, in recent times Russia has used it with devastating effect against the Islamic State as well as US-backed terror groups in Syria. These strikes severely degraded the Islamic State’s strength in the region. They have also been used to attack the US-backed Ukrainian forces, but with limited success. This is primarily because the Russians have been reluctant to deploy the full fury of their air force in order to avoid collateral damage in Ukraine. Predictably, this soft-hands policy has backfired – if you don’t deploy your best weapons to their maximum potential, it’s just hara-kiri.

The Russian Air Force has placed an order for 50 new upgraded Blackjacks designated the Tu-160M2, estimated to cost $270 million per unit. The new model will have more reliable engines, some stealth capability because of radar absorbing material on the exterior, improved electronics, and new missiles including the 6,000 km range Kh-BD. Its only remaining design commonality with the older Blackjack will be the airframe itself.

Explains Denis Manturov, Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation: “We have restored the full production cycle of the Tu-160, but already in the M modification, using modernised engines, modernised aircraft control systems, navigation systems, and weapons control systems. The modernisation of the Kazan Aviation Plant played an important role in restoring the production of unique aircraft: the equipment of the shops, the flight test base was updated, the world’s largest installation for electron beam welding and vacuum annealing of titanium was put into operation. Today we see significant prospects for the Tu-160 platform: further development will make it possible to use it for new types of weapons, including promising ones.”

Alternate options

According to reports, the IAF will lease six Tu-160s, but its detractors argue the aircraft is a relic of the Cold War, and does not belong in the modern air-land battle scenario primarily because of its huge radar signature. Plus, some say India should wait for the new US stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider.

However, these arguments lack legs. A truism about wars is that the generals want the best weapon money can buy, but they have to fight with what they have. India has a steep learning curve when it comes to the rarefied world of strategic bombers, so even a limited number of six Blackjacks is better than none.

For instance, India leased a nuclear powered submarine from Russia back in 1987 when the Indian Navy didn’t have any nuclear submarines. However, the experience gained from the 10-year lease proved critical when India ultimately launched its first nuclear powered submarine 29 years later in 2016. Similarly, the experience that Indian air crews will gain flying the Blackjack will be handy when India eventually builds its indigenous bomber.

As for the American B-21, it is a completely unknown commodity. At $729 million per unit, it’s nearly three times the price of the Blackjack, and clearly not meant for a developing country. At any rate, anyone who says the US will offer the B-21 to India is indulging in idle talk. Such aircraft are at the bleeding edge of a country’s defence sector and their technology is closely guarded. Take the powerful F-22. Foreign sales were banned by a 1998 US law aimed at protecting the stealth technology and other high-tech features of the warplane. On the other hand, the F-35 stealth fighter has been exported widely because both the US defence department and the manufacturer Lockheed-Martin know it is a terrible aircraft.

The Russian Tu-160 is certainly a game changer, but it doesn’t mean India should rush headlong into a deal. In terms of size, firepower and reach, it dwarfs everything in the IAF, but it should not be forgotten that the Blackjack is a 35 year old design. Plus, with the Russian defence companies, the delivery of spares is always an issue.

India could have bought these aircraft cheap as chips when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 and Moscow abandoned dozens of Blackjacks in Ukraine. But costs aside, having a nascent fleet comprising just six bombers would still be a good idea as it would give India a rare glimpse into the world of strategic airpower.