“Generally, setting up the working groups generates a mechanistic measure to secure the stability of China-US relations, and will further avoid discord and impact on the global market caused by misunderstanding in terms of macroeconomic and financial policies,” says Gao Lingyun, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, in Global Times.  

On September 21, 2023, notwithstanding their acute opposition to each other, China and the USA agreed to set up two working groups on financial and economic matters to iron out the differences and reduce the heightened tension between the two. It is a big surprise for an ordinary observer to see this volte-face by two ardent opponents. Are they both fooling each other or was there any substance in their rapprochement to straighten out differences?

What exactly was the real motive of the USA to mend fences with China, when it knows that China has sworn to dethrone the USA from the ‘numero uno’ position in global affairs by 2049? A question arises if the USA has thrown in the towel and reconciled to its ultimate consequences or if it was another move. Whatever it is, it deeply matters for India. To understand this act of the USA, in particular, one ought to understand the rigmarole of the emerging geopolitics of the world.

In the transforming world of the 21st century, there was a definite threat to the ‘numero uno’ position of the USA in global affairs. Hitherto, it has not only dominated and controlled the United Nations, since the end of the Second World War but also various other global institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Its leeway with these institutions allowed it to arm-twist its opponents.

But, at the dawn of the 21st century, a new matrix of global balance of power was emerging. Its roadmap has moved from a bipolar world to unipolar and now towards multipolar. The main contender of the United States, till the last decade of the 20th century, was the Soviet Union. However, the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1990, led to the United States assuming the charge of ‘supreme power’ in the world. It is this position that is being challenged today. Undoubtedly China, led by Xi Jinping, is at the forefront to usurp this US position of global domination.

It is manifestly apparent that the global balance of power was shifting from the West and the USA to Asia. No doubt, in geo-political terms, the 21st century is recognised as the ‘Asian Century’. China and India are the two main flag-bearers of this transformation of the globe. However, China and India are both not complementary but competitive, giving rise to tension and conflict between them — something of the beginning of an ‘Asian Cold War’. But there is a difference:  while China is fully developed, India is slightly overshadowed by China. This is where the USA fits in, to side with India to checkmate China. This is why the USA has been giving importance to the Indo-Pacific region and India.

One has to understand the rising clout of India to know why the USA was banking on it to checkmate China. This is reflected in the grand success of the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. It ought to be noted that G20 might have announced India’s arrival on world affairs in a big way, but its tell-tale signs have been visible for the last decade or so. Indian domination in world affairs, post-COVID-19 ‘vaccine diplomacy’ has risen many notches. It has become a responsible voice of the ‘Global South’ — the underdeveloped region of Africa and Latin America. Besides this, otherwise also, Indian presence is most significant in various other spheres from the fifth largest economy to ‘IT Giant’ (Information Technology Giant) and to space exploration.

It also must be noted that at the most recent count, 60 of the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies are of Indian origin. Most of them are flooded at the lower levels too. NASA is tearing at seams with scientists of Indian origin. They also ought to know what Indian immigrants were doing in the UK, the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavian countries, and also South East Asia. Admittedly, India’s soft power is now gripping the world.

With the fourth largest military, India is just a notch behind China. Therefore, the USA and the West considered India as the right candidate for checkmating China, which was threatening to overtake their dominating position. Thus, the USA and the West had been propping up India to engage China. Truly speaking, the USA and the West would be more pleased if India and China engaged themselves in a military duel. This would not only minimise the Chinese threat but also hamper global aspirations of rising India. In other words, the ongoing game was to kill two birds with one stone. Precisely speaking, the strategy is to not only checkmate the current challenger (China) to their global domination but also put spokes in the growth of a future challenger (India). It not only would put back the clock of the ‘Asian Century’ but damage it beyond recognition.

However, the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war since February 2022 has damaged this strategy, when India refused to toe the US line. It pursues its independent policy on the Ukraine conflict not only because of its old ties with Russia but also because India believed that it was not an era of wars — so eloquently conveyed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the last SCO summit in Samarkand (Uzbekistan) on September 15/16, 2023.

This irked the EU and the USA. In order to arm-twist India, the USA and the West have been indulging in various activities to show the Indian government in poor light. All sorts of efforts are underway to ensure that a weak government is installed at the Centre in the 2024 general elections. Therefore, you find, a host of anti-India reports such as the BBC and Henderson reports a few months back. The toolkit apparatus is functioning to create confusion and chaos in India. It is alleged that the US businessman George Soros wants to dethrone the present regime of India. It is alleged that he has links with the CIA.

It is no guesswork to know that the Khalistan movement, though the creation of ISI of Pakistan in the late 1970s, was now a client organisation of Western and US intelligence organisations. Recent upsurge in Khalistan activities in the UK, the USA, Canada, Australia and Germany is a clear link in the ‘Arm-Twisting’ game by the USA and the West. Who does not know that Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, chief of the US-based organisation SFJ (Sikhs For Justice) was a creation of an intelligence agency? How come, being a US citizen, he can threaten Hindus to leave Canada? He definitely has the backing of the governments there.

“At a time when East-West polarisation is so sharp and the North-South divide is so deep, the New Delhi summit declaration affirms that diplomacy and dialogue are the only solutions… the days when a few nations set the agenda and ask others to follow are over” says External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar

Also, it is now manifestly apparent that Khalistan activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, murdered on June 18, 2023, by unknown assailants, had been working for a Canadian intelligence agency. It is none other but Nijjar’s son who has made this disclosure recently. It is said that two days before his murder, he had a meeting with his Canadian Intelligence agency handlers. How come then Justin Trudeau, the Canadian PM, was so brash to say that the Indian government had a hand in this assassination? Grapevine says that Trudeau must have been manipulated to make this statement by the US intelligence organisation. It was another effort of the US administration to put pressure on India.

And now comes the news of its cozying up to China by agreeing to set up two working groups to ease out tense relations. Is it so? Does China really believe it? Both might be fooling each other. As far as the USA was concerned, it might be part of its double game to unsettle India and mollycoddle China — like it had done with the erstwhile Soviet Union by signing SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) and leading Gorbachev to introduce ‘Glasnost’ and ‘Perestroika’, which eventually led to its demise.

Even within US President Joe Biden’s administration, there is a division of opinion on relations with China and India. While a group led by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken favours China; another group led by Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin wants to pin down China through India. Therefore, there is clear-cut confusion in the USA but the majority view wants to checkmate China before it acquires the desired muscles to challenge her ‘numero uno’ position. Thus, India foots the bill, which has a running dispute with China on the border issue, from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh — a distance of some 3500 km. This is why all sorts of concessions, like buying Russian oil, were given to India, to keep her on its right side. But did India bite the bullet? The answer is ‘No’. India continues to behave in its own interests. But arm twisting carries on and India’s elections in 2024 are targeted to weaken the Central government, if not outrightly replaced by a loose coalition.

How India will play in the year 2024 is yet unknown. But India must not become a proxy soldier of the USA against China. It must sort out matters on its own. A Pakistani strategic analyst has observed that whoever from Asia had ever allied with the USA was used as a strategic condom and thrown away, whether it was Cambodia, Laos, Libya, Syria, South Vietnam, Pakistan and so on. Sure, India has miles and miles to go before it can really assert itself independently, though a beginning has been made post-COVID-19. One can only wish her good luck.

In conclusion, I would like to quote Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who echoed Indian sentiments in his address to UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) on September 26, 2023: “At a time when East-West polarisation is so sharp and the North-South divide is so deep, the New Delhi summit declaration affirms that diplomacy and dialogue are the only solutions… the days when a few nations set the agenda and ask others to follow are over.”

-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda