Economics plays a crucial role in international politics. It can turn once-sworn enemies into the best of comrades, and bring about an end to a conflict that may have been going on for a long time. All countries in the world expend a substantial part of their diplomatic resources in negotiating favourable trade deals. However, economics has also been used as a tool to gain strategic advantage over rivals.
This is clearly evident with the recent visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Yi to Afghanistan. He along with his Pakistani counterpart held talks with their Afghan counterparts, and announced that the Belt and Road Initiative – the flagship infrastructure initiative of the Chinese President Xi Jinping – would be expanded to Afghanistan. This announcement came close on the heels of a phone call between India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and the acting foreign minister of the Taliban regime Amir Khan Muttaqi where the Afghan side condemned the Pahalgam terror attack and called for strengthening of ties between both the countries.
The Taliban regime, de facto rulers of Afghanistan, is desperate for international recognition to bolster the legitimacy of their rule and to seek much-needed humanitarian and economic assistance to revive their country. In that context, an extensive analysis of this important development needs to be undertaken.
China’s Foreign Minister Yang Yi visited Afghanistan and held talks, which were also attended by his Pakistani counterpart. He announced that the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s flagship project, would be expanded to Afghanistan
Chinese Motivations
For China, Afghanistan constitutes a critical part of its goal of establishing its undisputed hegemony in South Asia. Afghanistan, despite being one of the most impoverished countries in the world, is a mineral-rich country, containing large reserves of critical minerals such as Nickel, Cobalt, Silica, Magnesium, bauxite, and uranium. The estimated value of these critical minerals and other vital mineral resources is estimated to be a whopping $ 1 trillion.
Critical minerals are crucial for strengthening the industrial base of any country as these minerals are being used for the production of all sorts of devices, starting from smartphones to next-generation electronic warfare equipment. Needless to say, India, the US and other leading powers in the world are scrambling to take steps to develop their critical mineral base.
Apart from economic motivation, gaining a strong foothold in Afghanistan will enable China to act as a mediator for improving ties between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani government, which currently are experiencing a high degree of turbulence. This will enable China to form a possible Afghanistan-China-Pakistan (ACP) axis, which will allow China to encircle India and advance its hegemonic goals in South Asia.
Afghanistan, one of the most impoverished countries in the world, is a mineral-rich country with large reserves of critical minerals such as Nickel, Cobalt, Silica, Magnesium, bauxite, and uranium. The estimated value of these minerals is $1 trillion
A key part of China’s growing presence in Afghanistan is to undermine India’s growing influence in Central Asia, wherein the countries are looking to strengthen their ties with India after realising the essentially predatory nature of the BRI projects on one hand and China’s wolf warrior diplomacy on the other. Establishing a foothold in Central Asia would further allow China to strategically erode India’s intentions of solidifying its economic and trade relationship via the Chabahar port project in Iran.
Also, weakening India’s position in South Asia using Afghanistan as a conduit would allow the dragon to erode the US influence in South Asia, which continues to be an important stakeholder in South Asian geopolitics.
Thwarting the Designs
While in international relations it takes time for any state or non-state actor to develop an impression, it needs to be borne in mind that once an impression is created, it is hard to change the effects overnight; this exactly is the case with Afghanistan. If China manages to get a firm presence in Afghanistan, it will spell a lot of trouble for India, at least strategically. Hence, it is imperative that India takes proper countermeasures.
Given the goodwill India enjoys among the Afghan populace and the Taliban, India should open talks with the Taliban and secure a broad trade deal to secure its defence and industrial base. India must act with clarity to thwart the dragon’s nefarious designs
Granting a formal recognition to the Taliban regime, notwithstanding their reputation, would be a strategic masterstroke. Idealism in world politics has ebbed seriously over the past decade. Realism demands that India recognise its national interests and even if it means dealing with many unpleasant elements, New Delhi must pursue it.
A key process whereby New Delhi can counter Beijing’s economic designs in Afghanistan is to not only restart the developmental and infrastructure projects in the country but also use its diplomacy to extend the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) to Afghanistan.
Further, given the goodwill India enjoys both among the Afghan populace and the Taliban, India should open talks with the Taliban and secure a broad trade deal for the solidification of its national defence and industrial base.
It is absolutely essential that New Delhi acts with clarity to thwart the nefarious designs of the dragon in Afghanistan.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
