Two Meetings and Tectonic Shift in Balance of Power

In 1945, the world’s four strongmen – Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union, Harry Truman of the USA, Winston Churchill (Prime Minister of the UK till July 26, 1945) and Clement Attlee (Prime Minister of the UK after July 26, 1945) – attended the Potsdam Conference to discuss the post-Second World War world and future of Europe.

Eighty years after that significant meeting that shifted the global geopolitics, the ‘Big Four’ leaders of the current world – Vladimir Putin of Russia, Donald Trump of the USA, Xi Jinping of China and Narendra Modi of India – will meet in Moscow on May 9, 2025, to discuss the administration of the world after the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Moscow meeting carries obvious contradictions as did the Potsdam Conference of July-August 1945. There are some commonalities between both meetings. Potsdam conference established:

1. The end of Colonialism, and the balance of power shifted from Europe to the USA and the Soviet Union. It was the end of the European empires around the world. Germany, England and France were no longer going to dominate the Afro-Asian nations.
2. The globe had become bipolar, divided between two superpowers – the Soviet Union and the United States of America.
3. It also led to a cold war between the two blocs, adopting covert means to harm each other’s interests. It also sought snatching of control of regions to enhance their areas of influence.
4. In the shadows of bipolar world, a third pole desperately tried to emerge in the form of Non-Alignment Movement (NAM). India’s J L Nehru and China’s Mao Ze Dong’s Panchsheel (Five Principles) agreement became the guiding philosophy of NAM. But it could hardly establish itself.
5. The end of the Cold War with the breakup of the Soviet Union by 1990 (45 years after Potsdam Meet), NAM got packed up because its backers, Marshal Tito of Yugoslavia, Nasser Hussain of Egypt and J L Nehru were torn apart by their internal problems. India’s defeat by China in 1962 had exposed NAM. John F Kennedy of the USA had tauntingly told B K Nehru, the Indian Ambassador, who sought US military help: “The British fought the Germans for two years before we went to their help, and you couldn’t fight them for two days?” NAM lost its shine.

In the interregnum period between 1945 and 2025, say around 1980-90, the world had witnessed many shifts in global geopolitics:

1. The decades of the 50s and 60s were the heyday of the Cold War. Interesting to note the Bay of Pigs crisis, where the world was minutes away from a nuclear holocaust.
2. Proxy wars began between Capitalism led by the USA & England, and Communism led by the Soviet Union & China, in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Middle East and Cuba.
3. The US-China honeymoon from 1978 to 2009 and later emergence of China as a US competitor. Deng Xiao Peng, Chinese Strongman in 1979, put China on a road to growth and development through his TGYH (Tao Guang, Yang Hui) policy, meaning working silently to attain objectives without confrontation with anyone.

Trump has openly stated that the US is not going to get involved in “others’ wars”, whether it was Europe or any other place. He is closer to Vladimir Putin and wants to end the Russia-Ukraine war on Putin’s terms. He has no objection to Russia retaining 20% of Ukraine territory occupied as the war booty

4. Collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of a unipolar world, under the USA, with Europe as its surrogate. WP (Warsaw Pact) alliance also broke up leading to an upheaval in Eastern Europe. East & West Germany got united; Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia got fragmented. Ukraine became a new country. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan became independent of the USSR.
5. The USA had complete hold over the globe and the 1990s saw its domination as a unipolar power. Weaponisation of economic sanctions was used to bring rebel states to toe the US line. It dictated its terms everywhere. Saddam Hussain’s Iraq was destroyed. Afghanistan was mercilessly blasted after the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center twin towers in New York on 9/11. The USA could militarily intervene anywhere in the world. There was none to check it.

The world continued to be unipolar until the rise of Xi Jinping in China around 2012. He launched his ambitious programme of replacing the USA as numero uno global power. His strategy of FFYW (Fa Fen, You Wei) Doctrine, opposite of Deng Xiao Peng’s TGYH, was designed to prove one’s worth through firm resolve. It sought to subdue one’s adversaries through offensive and aggressive actions. Primary objective was to emerge as Numero Uno Global Power by 2049. This was a challenge to the USA, the last thing the US had expected.

Unipolar world also saw the rise of Global Deep State (GDS) and ‘Wokeism’. The purpose of GDS was to control the world through covert means. It involved a change of regimes, through clandestine means, whenever a country was defiant, whether it was Cuba or any other Asian nation like Bangladesh, Pakistan, or even India. Wokeism was a ‘leftist cabal’, aided and supported by China. In certain matters, it had been working in close unison with GDS.

Covid-19 shook the world by storm, and defiance to unipolar power came to fore. Sino-US rivalry was openly staring at the world in 2020. This allowed some others to exercise their strategic autonomy. While China and the USA were getting at each other’s throat, Russia invaded Ukraine. This war has been raging for three years.

This exposed the chinks in the unipolar world. Economic sanctions did not affect nations like India, which emerged as a forceful voice in global affairs. Its rapid growth as the fifth largest economy and likely counter balance for China forced the USA to ignore its defiance on its ties with Russia. The rise of defiant states, whether India or China or even Iran and BRICS, are clear indicators of the end of the unipolar world.

At the Tajikistan meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had thundered: “It is not an era of war,” to tell both the USA and China, or even Russia, to fall in line with a multipolar world. Slow attempts by BRICS to start the movement for de-dollarisation have sent the shock waves to the USA. The dollar, as a reserve currency of the globe, had allowed the USA to maintain its supremacy. Attempt at ‘alternative reserve currency’ was a sure sign of decline of unipolar world.

At the Moscow meeting, India will seek revitalisation of the United Nations and the expansion of the Security Council from five permanent members to 7-8 permanent members with India and Germany as favourites. A multipolar world will emerge in which the USA, China, Russia and India have equal shares

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has given another push to ‘Modi doctrine’ of ‘No Wars’. He sees no use of NATO, if Europe was not going to contribute to its existence. He wants Europe to make equal payment for NATO to remain effective.

Trump being a businessman has openly stated that the US was not going to get involved in “others’ wars”, whether it was Europe or any other place. He is closer to Vladimir Putin and he trusts him. He wants to end the Russia-Ukraine war on Putin’s terms. He has no objection to Russia retaining 20% of Ukraine territory occupied as the war booty. Ukraine is going to be the biggest loser as Donald Trump wants access to the mineral wealth of Ukraine as a compensation for US war funding over the last three years.

Under these conditions, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi will meet on May 9. The unconfirmed but ambiguous objectives of the meeting would be for each to stake an appropriate share in the multipolar globe. Therefore, following would emerge from the meeting:

1. End of Ukraine war on Russian terms with a Versailles type treaty imposed on Ukraine. The Versailles Treaty at the end of the First World War had put Germany at a great disadvantage. Big Four would seek their share as:

• Putin would seek retention of 20% of Ukraine territory
• Trump would seek control of the mineral wealth.
• China would like to seek global acknowledgement of its ‘One China Policy’ to allow it to grab Taiwan.
• India would bid for its role as a fourth pillar of the globe with UN SC membership and a leader of the ‘Global South’.

The central theme of the Moscow meeting will be geoeconomics. Territories will be well defined, encroachments will be a call to war, and the wars will not be direct or indirect but ‘Invisible’, even going into the third dimension of space. The race for the space will herald the cosmic era

2. Acceptance of the emergence of a multipolar world where the USA, China, Russia and India have equal shares.
3. Revitalisation of the United Nations with expansion of the Security Council from five permanent members to 7-8 permanent members with India and Germany as favourites.
4. The USA would seek recognition of the Gulf of Mexico renamed Gulf of America: followed by exclusive rights over the Panama Canal and the Gaza Strip to be handed over to it as an allowance for Taiwan and Ukraine territory.
5. Europe would lose its shine. It would no longer enjoy US protection. Ukraine would not be given membership of NATO, which would have to depend upon contributions from EU states.
6. Global attention will shift to Iran and the Middle East. Internal crisis in the region would intensify. A global drive against militant organisations would make the region volatile. Iran and the terrorist organisations backed by it would face the US ire. China, India and Russia will be asked to stay away from Iran.

Thus, the Moscow meeting might debate the above issues to chalk out a “new global balance of power and areas of influence”. A tectonic shift in geopolitics would take place. The central theme would be geoeconomics. Territories will be well defined. Encroachments would be a call to war. And the wars will not be direct or indirect but ‘Invisible’. It might go into the third dimension of space. The race for the space would herald the cosmic era.

Col Rajinder Singh

-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda