Aristotle said change is unsettling. Any change, be it temporary or long-lasting, is bound to disrupt the usual nature of how society operates, resulting in overall upheaval with adverse consequences. One of the many areas where changes can be extremely disruptive is politics. Politics, be it domestic or international is meant to be, in general, smooth and calm. It must involve routine transactions based on mutual understandings, both said and unsaid.
However, the second decade of the 21st century has spawned a host of disruptive changes, be it in the realm of climate, health, technology, or politics. In this context, the recently concluded American election is an archetype. Donald Trump, the real estate mogul known for his brash, flamboyant and boisterous nature and conduct in the world of business and pop culture, managed to rock the boat of American politics when he announced and surprisingly managed to win the 2016 American election. Although he lost the next presidential election, he staged a stunning comeback in the 2024 election.
Known for his transactional and highly unpredictable deal-making style, Trump is surely a blip in American politics, according to leading social scientists. But American society seems to have resolved that the blip will be a norm, a change that can resonate with the general masses and not continue the status quo vis-à-vis the usual political elites and their activities.
Trump has not only altered the nature of governance of the United States but has made it amply clear in the global political discourse that change if need be, can be unsettling, much to the chagrin of the status quoits.
Having said that, the biggest question that arises in the mind of a learned observer of politics is this – what will be the outcome of Trump presidency 2.0?
Trump has promised to stop illegal immigration, especially along the southern border of the country with Mexico. He attacked the Democrats and Biden administration for its failure to tackle immigration, his promises seem to have struck a chord with the American voters
Domestic perspective
Trump based his electoral campaign on two key issues – economy and immigration. Despite the American economy doing relatively well under President Joe Biden with more job creation and manageable debt levels, inflation and the rising cost of living have been a concern, especially for the working-class non-college-educated populace.
That explains why Trump’s vote share experienced a considerable increase among the white working-class folks. Interestingly, his claims on the growing concern about the health of the US economy and his promise of taking back jobs from other markets like China seem to have resonated also with other groups, which explains the surprising expansion in the Hispanic and Asian American vote share.
On the issue of immigration, Trump has drawn a hard line, promising to stop illegal immigration, especially along the southern border of the country with Mexico. He attacked the Democrats and Biden administration for its failure to tackle immigration, his promises seem to have struck a chord with the American voters who are quite miffed at the way America is being operated under the Biden administration. He has also pledged to terminate the initiative on automatic citizenship on birth, this step is expected to adversely affect Indians willing to share a pie of the cake called the ‘American dream’. He is expected to double down on this issue. Having won a stunning mandate, not only have Republicans managed to increase their presence in the electoral college, but have attained a majority in the Senate and a commanding presence in the House of Representatives. To top it all, the Supreme Court of the USA is packed with conservative judges, so for the upcoming Trump administration, the more the merrier.
This, however, signals a hardening of stance across the Euro-Atlantic region on immigration, both legal and illegal. While the focus is on controlling immigration, an oblique reference point has been immigrants coming from the MANA (Middle East North Africa) region. This proves how, besides climate change, AI etc., immigration is emerging as one of the principal points of contention in domestic and global politics.
With Trump’s return, the European bloc is concerned. In his first term, he called on the European countries to increase their defence expenditure, stating that the United States could not take responsibility for the European continent. This rhetoric is expected to be more assertive this time around
International scene
In the field of international politics, the disruption is no less concerning. With the return of Trump, the European bloc is seriously concerned, acting all fidgety. In his first term, he called on the European countries to increase their defence expenditure stating in no uncertain terms that the United States cannot take the responsibility of the European continent. This rhetoric is expected to be more assertive this time around. The changed stance was reflected in a recent meeting of the EU wherein the Italian premier Giorgia Meloni asked the bloc to focus on itself.
Climate change is another area where the United States is most likely to backtrack. Trump’s track record on climate change is patchy. Having withdrawn from the Paris Accord of 2015, the Trump administration clarified that climate change was not an important part of their electoral agenda. This seems to be all the more prescient as Trump has indicated that he will bring down energy prices by giving complete freedom, carte blanche, to the oil and gas companies to go for more drilling and production, in short, an increase in non-renewable energy output.
But the biggest issue is how Trump will deal with India.
Indian perspective
Trump’s victory has evoked mixed responses in India, while some are elated, others are wary of him, reportedly because he called India ‘Tariff King’. It is widely expected that he will adopt a tougher line on China and Pakistan, especially the former, which Trump perceives to be America’s greatest rival.
However, a Trump presidency is likely to be good news for India, especially in the Middle Eastern and Indo-Pacific regions. India is one of the only countries in the world that has good relations with almost all countries in the Middle East irrespective of their demographic and societal composition. As such the Israel-Hamas war, which has seen the ubiquitous involvement of Iran, has made things exceedingly uncomfortable for India because India has two of its most important allies in the region – Iran and Israel – at each other’s throats. On the other hand, the Gulf Arab kingdoms have grown wary of Israel thanks to its brutal military campaign in Gaza first and now Lebanon.
A peace deal can be likely on the cards but expect Iran to be cornered. On the other hand, the Indo-Pacific region will see increasing collaboration with the Americans under the Quad framework to prevent China’s assertiveness in the strategic region. An expansion of trade and commerce among the Quad countries is expected to be a boon for India.
Trump’s victory has evoked mixed responses in India, while some are elated, others are wary of him, reportedly because he called India ‘Tariff King’. It is widely expected that he will adopt a tougher line on China and Pakistan, especially the former, which Trump perceives to be America’s greatest rival
The American defence ties with India are likely to receive a shot in the arm, pending delivery of the T414 engines for the Tejas Mark 1 fighter jets is likely to speed up and signing of more lucrative defence deals, especially those with the technology transfer provisions is likely to increase.
But a bone of contention is likely to be the trade. Trump has indicated that his administration will be hyperactive in scrutinising trade with America’s allies. So it must not come as a surprise that tariffs on certain Indian products entering the US shores are being increased. A possible trade war cannot be ruled out.
Overall, one thing is clear – the American people have decided to go for the disruption, the reverberations of which will be felt worldwide.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
