Change is the order of nature, the world around us is always in flux. In that context, world politics is all the more affected. Given the plethora of state and non-state actors playing a crucial role in shaping finance, economics, culture and politics, change is inevitable.
With the return of Donald Trump as the president of the world’s most powerful country, it was expected that disruption would be the new ‘normal’ in the different contours of the world order. However, disruption is, essentially, an understatement. With his assumption of office on January 20, Trump has not only reshaped the fundamental orientations of the Euro-Atlantic order but has undertaken several administrative steps that have caused ripples in global politics, economics and culture.
A new world order is in the making, an order that is marked by the resurrection of several old ideas and the emergence of novel concepts. An analysis, hence, becomes essential.
Decline of Euro-Atlantic Solidarity
The Euro-Atlantic alliance, which refers to the ironclad defence, political, economic and foreign policy consistencies between North America and Europe since the beginning of the Cold War, has suffered a precipitous decline. Trumpian America has made it clear that Europe can no longer enjoy the American economic and defence umbrella facilities without paying their requisite share of the resources.
The American decision to reject Ukraine’s purported candidature to the NATO military alliance and threatening to withdraw from NATO has caused panic among the governments in Europe, so much so that Germany’s newly elected conservative leadership has pledged to make Europe a powerful entity to ward off dependence on the American economic and defence umbrella.
The US decision to reject Ukraine’s candidature to NATO and its threat to withdraw from this military alliance has caused panic among various governments in Europe
Further, the US vice-president’s criticism of Europe’s democratic credentials at the Munich Security Conference, wherein he highlighted that the main threat to European democracies and their institutions remains within their countries and not by outside powers, shows the stark dissonance among the perceptions of the worldviews of the USA and its European allies concerning the Euro-Atlantic alliance.
In that context, it is necessary to understand the American mindset. Outside the USA, Germany hosts the largest American armed forces base. Every year the USA spends billions of dollars of American taxpayers’ money to maintain and guarantee European security. Hence, following the policy of ‘America First’, Trump made it clear that free rides on the wings of the American eagle will no longer be allowed.
In fact, one of the pillars of the Euro-Atlantic order – maintaining democracy and exporting democracy throughout the world via overt and covert measures, has earned the wrath of the US president. It was evident from the USA’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and shutting down of the USAID, responsible for hosting ‘developmental’ projects around the world.
While Trump may remain in office for only four years, even a day in global politics is a long time. Europe has no other option but to buckle up.
Conservatism is on the rise with the belief that breakneck-speed modernisation, promoting values that put in peril the fundamental pillars of society, needs to be kept in check
Conservatism on the Rise
As an ideology, conservatism was propounded by the English parliamentarian and political thinker Edmund Burke in the 19th century. It advocates the maintenance of tradition, holding them sacred for the proper functioning of societies; and the preservation of institutions that are regarded as the sine qua non of human political and social order. It believes that change is disruptive and contrary to the natural state of human order. Lastly, it emphasises revering authority, holding it responsible as the anchor of stability and continuity in society.
Today, we are witnessing the rise of conservatism, in the form of conservative governments in India, the USA, Italy, Hungary, and Singapore. Prominent foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan has called it ‘conservative international’. Conservatives of today believe that with the world experiencing modernisation at a breakneck speed promoting values and ideas that put in peril the fundamental pillars of human societies need to be kept in check. They believe that there is a definite need to combat ‘wokeism’ that has permeated across the world.
The practice of ‘common sense’ and ‘traditional values’ need to be revived and protected. In that context, conservative forces across the world are consolidating their grip in the countries where their governments are elected and, unlike at any other point in time, are taking active steps to promote a global consensus on conservative values at all levels, most importantly at the local level, to cement the bonds of tradition.
Global Economics Reconfigured
With the United States starting a trade war, global economics is experiencing an upheaval. In that regard, countries like India and China, are taking active steps in reconfiguring the basic contours of economics. More so, India has already signed Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with Australia and the UAE, and negotiations for FTAs are underway with the UK, European Union, the USA, and even New Zealand.
In tune with the changing economic world order, India must engage with countries in Africa, which is becoming the next big thing because it is the hotbed of natural resources
In that context, the BIT or Bilateral Investment Treaty with USA and FTA with the EU are the most ambitious ones, as the EU and the USA are the largest trade partners of India. FTAs with these entities will enable India to promote an equitable economic relationship and help reform the worn-out and policy-paralysed WTO to ensure the development of an organisation that is in tune with the changing times.
Further, in tune with the changing nature of the global economic order, India needs to step up its engagement with African countries, which is becoming the next big thing from the point of view of critical minerals. Africa is the hotbed of natural resources that possess the potential to shape the face of humanity via next-generation technologies. Hence, an FTA with the African Union is a must for India to not only bolster its relationship with the continent but also tackle China, which is vying for space vis-à-vis India.
Therefore, the global order is undergoing monumental changes. It will be better for India to be cognizant of the winds of change and act deftly.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
