When incumbent President of the US, Joe Biden on July 13 announced his decision to quit the race for the presidential election, due on November 5, he was the first head of government in America in recent times to drop out of the race just a few months away from the polls.
However, given his declining mental fitness, President Biden’s withdrawal from the race was not as surprising or shocking as President Lyndon Johnson’s announcement of not running for re-election. President Johnson had made this shocking announcement on March 31, 1968—all this at a time when the US political atmosphere was surcharged with developments around the Vietnam War.
Harry Truman in 1952 also declined from contesting presidential election for the second term and so did other US Presidents like Calvin Coolidge, James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes, and Theodore Roosevelt. But in the modern political history of the US, no President has exited from the race when the election is so close and that too after winning the primaries.
In the modern political history of the US, no President has exited from the race when the election is so close and that too after winning the primaries
Early Trends
Biden’s decision created a flutter in American political circles, especially among Democrats, as it left them with no option but to support Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate. There is a fear among some Democrats that it could be a repeat of the 2016 elections (when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton), if Kamala Harris remains in the race for the White House.
Despite several pollsters and opinion polls showing Hillary Clinton winning the presidential election, she lost badly to Donald Trump in 2016. In the case of Kamala Harris too, majority of opinion surveys do not present her chances favourably to win the election.
For example, The New York Times in its opinion survey published on July 24 showed Harris trailing Trump by 2 percentage points nationally. Similarly, a CNN/SSRS poll displayed a 3-point national lead for Trump over Kamala Harris. While 49% registered voters backed Trump’s candidature for the White House, only 46% of them supported US Vice President Harris, the CNN/SSRS poll survey showed.
It does not, however, mean American voters are writing her off as a serious challenger to Trump in the presidential election. In states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, Blacks, youth and women have great likings for Kamala Harris, who is by origin half Indian and half Jamaican.
Survey polls conducted by The New York Times/Siena College’s Swing State a few days ago showed Harris ahead of Trump by 5 percentage points in Virginia, despite it being the initial days of her campaigning. On the other hand, the recent Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed Harris holding an edge over Trump by two percentage points.
Impact of change in US administration
Whatever be the outcome of the November 5 presidential election, it will have an impact on the geopolitics of the world. For a country like India, which enjoys a comprehensive global strategic partnership with the US, it would be premature to say that New Delhi will be comfortable with Trump or uncomfortable with Harris.
In any case, India need not have to worry as it enjoys the bipartisan support from both the Republicans and the Democrats. Yet, if Kamala Harris wins the election, it means more or less continuity of the approach that the Joe Biden administration currently pursues with India-partly sour, partly sweet.
In the case of Kamala Harris, majority of opinion surveys do not present her chances favourably to win the election
Biden administration’s love-hate relations
It must be remembered that India and the US inched closer to each other politically and strategically during the Biden administration. He elevated the Quad from ministerial level to summit level. A new grouping I2U2, which includes India, Israel, the US, and the UAE was launched, recognising New Delhi’s keen interest in West Asia.
On the sidelines of the G-20 summit in New Delhi last year, the US played a key role in the launch of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). It aims to foster connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.
In May 2022, the two countries launched an initiative on critical and emerging technology (iCET), with the aim to expand strategic technology partnership along with defence industrial cooperation between the governments, businesses, and academic institutions of the two countries.
In February 2022, the US recognised India as a like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean and its role as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
However, there is also some harsh truths: Planned co-development and co-production of defence products under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) have failed to take off, as the enthusiasm shown by India on this initiative has not been shared in equal measure by the US under the Biden administration.
India need not worry as it enjoys the bipartisan support from both the Republicans and the Democrats. Yet, a Kamala win would mean the continuation of the Biden’s approach with India-partly sour, partly sweet
Similarly, more than two years have passed since the two countries launched iCET, but the two countries have not yet identified areas of collaboration, including Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Semiconductors, Telecommunications, Defence and Space.
Yet, what has caused ripples in New Delhi is the Biden administration’s approach towards anti-India elements based in the US. It is much concerned about the safety of India-designated terrorist and Sikhs for Justice leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, but has yet to submit a detailed report to India on vandalism and attempted arson on the Indian Consulate in San Francisco on March 19 and July 2, 2023.
Besides, more than a year has passed, the US has not till date provided any reliable evidence of the involvement of Indian citizens in the murder plot of Pannun in the country.
Then the US’s interference in the domestic affairs of India has increased beyond limits of diplomatic propriety. The US Department of State issued a statement on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Enforcement Directorate and freezing of bank accounts of the Congress party in March, forcing the Ministry of External Affairs to come out with a terse statement. Modern states are expected to be “respectful of the sovereignty and internal affairs of others.” MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.
Not only this, to send a firm message to the US that India would brook no interference in its domestic affairs, the MEA summoned Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Gloria Berbena at its office in South Block in New Delhi to lodge a strong protest against the US State Department’s official statement.
The Biden administration’s love-hate relations with India took a new turn when PM Modi landed in Russia on a two-day bilateral visit. Irrespective of an internationally known fact that India and Russia share a long-standing relations based on trust, mutual understanding and strategic convergence, the US took umbrage of PM Modi’s Russia visit for the bilateral annual summit.
It was the first visit by the Indian Prime Minister to Moscow since 2019 and also the first official trip by the Indian head of government to the Russian capital in the 3rd year of the Ukraine war. The US did not like the bear hug between PM Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nor did it like PM Modi visiting Russia and meeting the Russian leader on the same date, when the US was holding a NATO summit in Washington DC, where major discussion took place on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
India and the US inched closer to each other politically and strategically during the Biden administration. He elevated the Quad from ministerial level to summit level. And brought India into the new regional grouping I2U2, recognising New Delhi’s keen interest in West Asia.
Kamala Harris
Foreign affairs observers opine that if Kamala Harris is elected in the November 5 presidential polls, she will not deviate from adopting the same pathway every Democratic president has often taken in the US’s engagement with India.
Moreover, she has not visited India in the last four-year of her vice-presidential term and nor has she been seen wearing India on her sleeve. Her vice-presidential position could not influence India-US ties—whether it be on climate change, technology, energy, strategy, space or defence. Rather, in 2019, she criticised Prime Minister Modi on his government’s policy towards Jammu and Kashmir.
Therefore, no enthusiasm has been generated in India over her becoming the leading contender for the Democratic nomination for the presidential election in the US.
There is also some harsh truths: Planned co-development and co-production of defence products under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) have failed to take off, as the enthusiasm shown by India on this initiative has not been shared in equal measure by the US under the Biden administration
Donald Trump
PM Modi is believed to have enjoyed warmer and invariably closer personal relations with former US President and current Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Both leaders hosted each other at political rallies in their respective countries.
In August 2019, when the Modi government revoked Article 370, which gave a special status to Jammu and Kashmir, the then Donald Trump administration in the US called it as India’s “internal matter”.
In 2017, the two countries for the first time set up a hotline between the Prime Minister’s Office and the US White House, thereby further enhancing communication between the two governments.
Defence ties, intelligence sharing, and interoperability between the armed forces of the two countries got enhanced with the signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement in 2020.
India-US collaboration in defence also witnessed a significant jump during the Trump administration, with bilateral joint military exercises, including Yudh Abhyas, Vajra Prahar, Red Flag and Cope India. Both the countries have also been a part of the Malabar naval drills, with Japan and Australia as two other important participants of the naval exercises.
Harris has not visited India in the four-years of her VP term and nor has she been seen wearing India on her sleeve. She could not influence India-US ties on climate change, technology, energy, strategy, space or defence. Rather, in 2019, she criticised Prime Minister Modi on his government’s policy towards Jammu and Kashmir
Conclusion
Over the past two decades, India-US ties have evolved into multidimensional engagements, with each side imparting meaningful thrust to make relations between the two countries very important.
Despite this, time to time pricking of India’s national interests by the US on political, social, diplomatic, and strategic fronts, have not given Indian policy makers sufficient reasons to trust the US.
This apart, the US has no compunction in forcing its allies and partners to toe its line on issues of diplomacy, defence, and strategy. India, which indefatigably pursues independent foreign policy, always does what suits its national interests.
Therefore, whosoever enters the White House after the November 5 presidential election in America, India which is armed with invaluable experience of handling various US administrations effectively, will work with Washington DC in accordance with on-going programmes and policies.
But then, there is also a harsh truth: India requires US investments and technology to fulfil its dream of being a developed nation by 2047. As such, it is hard to expect that India will not keenly watch the forthcoming presidential election in the US.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
