At a time when the global geopolitical landscape is shifting very fast, Europe’s move to inch closer to India and its unease with Trump underscore a larger reality: Countries across the world are increasingly prioritising pragmatic interests over blind alliances, a trend that could redefine international partnerships in the years to come.
Hardly a day passes when US President Donald Trump, who is increasingly becoming a nemesis for countries around the world for his hard playing of tariff ball, does not take India’s name in his interactions with the media.
However, ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China to attend the SCO summit where images of the Indian, Chinese, and Russian leaders walking together, exchanging words, and sharing light banter went viral on social media, neither Trump nor his aides in the US administration can comprehend how India has changed the game in one stroke.
With this, even the US allies have begun blaming Trump and his aids for pushing India towards China, and at the moment trust is a far cry between the two countries. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb stood out for his unusually blunt warning to the US President.
This reflects the haphazard manner Trump takes things in stride. Instead of evaluating issues on their merit, he gives primacy to his ego in settling matters. In the case of India, this is quite apparent. To make the world believe that he ended the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May, he exerted all kinds of pressure on New Delhi to accept his version of falsehood. Yet, unlike Japan, South Korea and other countries, India is not ready to bow down before Trump
Growing criticism of Trump
Last week, speaking in Helsinki, Stubb said, “If Europe and America don’t adopt a more cooperative foreign policy towards the Global South and India, then we will lose.” Germany, an important member of the EU, expressed frustration over Europe’s lack of clout to stop the ongoing war in Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Europe was losing ground globally as countries such as India and China strengthened their ties with Russia through the SCO summit, underscoring the EU’s limited role on the world stage.
His exasperation was that several weeks have passed since a high-profile meeting took place between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, yet no end is in sight to the Ukraine war. The German Chancellor’s comment is also interpreted as a rebuff to Donald Trump as he claimed in November 2024 that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly if he were elected as the US President.
Seven months into presidency, Trump now admits that the Ukraine war is “probably the most difficult,” to end. This reflects the haphazard manner Trump takes things in stride. Instead of evaluating issues on their merit, he gives primacy to his ego in settling matters.
In the case of India, this is quite apparent. To make the world believe that he ended the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May, he exerted all kinds of pressure on New Delhi to accept his version of falsehood. Yet, unlike Japan, South Korea and other countries, India is not ready to bow down before Trump.
The result is that he has employed every trick in the book to arm-twist India. For example, he has hiked tariffs to 50% on Indian goods entering the US market; pressured American companies to desist from investing in India; mulled banning US companies from outsourcing to Indian IT firms, and sought major changes to H-1B visa programme with aim to stop Indians from entering the US for employment.
Within the US itself, lawmakers, and former bureaucrats lament President Trump’s such anti-India steps. Former US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Ex-Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in a joint op-ed in the magazine Foreign Affairs said, “Tariffs, Russian oil purchases, and renewed tensions regarding Pakistan have caused a rapid and regrettable downturn in the US-India relationship, replete with public insults and recriminations.”
However, within the US itself, lawmakers, and former bureaucrats lament President Trump’s such anti-India steps. Former US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Ex-Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in a joint op-ed in the magazine Foreign Affairs said, “Tariffs, Russian oil purchases, and renewed tensions regarding Pakistan have caused a rapid and regrettable downturn in the US-India relationship, replete with public insults and recriminations.”
Both these ex-US officials warned that “The United States and India can move forward by using the scaffolding already in place to build a stronger structure. Failing to do so risks squandering a major strategic opportunity and could encourage India to adopt a path less aligned with, or even hostile to, American strategic and economic interests.”
John Bolton, who served as NSA during Trump’s earlier stint as President, has not stopped from speaking against the current US administration’s highly negative stance against India. Despite his house being raided by the FBI on August 22, he has increased his attack on Trump for pushing India closer to Russia and China. “The White House has set US-India relations back decades, pushing Modi closer to Russia and China. Beijing has cast itself as an alternative to the US and Donald Trump,” Bolton said in a post on social media platform X.
As Europe, compelled by Russia’s war on Ukraine, desperately seeks a larger market to shore- up its economy to cover rising defence and security costs, it has so far avoided joining the US in jeopardising its relations with India. However, it remains uneasy with President Trump and mayhem unleashed by him across the world. This reflects in EU’s move to deepen its engagement with India on the trade and investment front
Europe nudges closer to India
However, the US’s closest allies in Europe have refused to go along with Trump. The European Union has decided to nudge closer to India, instead of doing what Washington DC has done with New Delhi—tearing and shredding more than two decades of former American presidents’ efforts to bring the world’s largest democratic country close to the US. The EU leaders have praised India’s role in the current geopolitical situation.
On September 4, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in their joint call with Prime Minister Modi welcomed India’s engagement with Russia. “India has an important role to play in bringing Russia to (an) end its war of aggression and helping create a path towards peace.” the two EU leaders said in their joint phone call to Prime Minister Modi.
India and the EU are accelerating efforts to resolve longstanding differences so that they could conclude their Free Trade Agreement later this year. Notably, it is happening even as the Trump administration is calling on European countries, which are themselves a big buyer of Russian energy, to follow suit the US in imposing secondary tariffs on countries that continue buying the Russian oil.
As Europe, compelled by Russia’s war on Ukraine, desperately seeks a larger market to shore- up its economy to cover rising defence and security costs, it has so far avoided joining the US in jeopardising its relations with India. However, it remains uneasy with President Trump and mayhem unleashed by him across the world. This reflects in EU’s move to deepen its engagement with India on the trade and investment front.
As Europe edges closer to India and New Delhi strengthens ties across multiple power centres, a multipolar order is gaining traction. For the US, the challenge is whether it can recalibrate its strategy to accommodate India’s growing autonomy, or risk ceding influence in shaping the future global order
Yet, Trump and his Cabinet colleagues argue that any tariff-induced pain is part of their detox strategy. Whether this strategy is working in consonance with President Trump and his administration’s objective of Make America Great Again (MAGA) is in the realm of speculation. Ground reality is that it is only damaging American interests.
For instance, sweeping import tariffs and aggressive immigration policy have led to squeezing jobs in the market as well as the economy in the US. According to the US’s Bureau of Labour Statistics, American employers created just 22,000 jobs in August.
On other hand, core sectors such as manufacturing, construction, energy, and mining have lost 25,000 jobs, while wholesale trade has been hit hard significantly, losing another 12,000 jobs. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at credit rating agency Moody’s, has predicted that the US economy is “on the edge of recession.”
Inflation rate, currently at 2.7%, is expected to rise above 3 % and near 4% by next year. Writing in The Guardian, a mainstream British newspaper, Heather Stewart, a senior journalist said, “Given that it is so unclear even what kind of economy he is groping towards, the overriding sense for the moment is of radical uncertainty.” This avoidable situation brought about by the Trump administration’s muddled handling of the economy has created a sense of unease among investors and common people as well.
Overall, tariff-driven foreign policy adopted by President Trump, coupled with baneful transactional approach toward allies and partners, has undermined US credibility at a critical juncture in global geopolitics.
As Europe edges closer to India and New Delhi strengthens ties across multiple power centres, a multipolar order is gaining traction. For the US, the challenge is whether it can recalibrate its strategy to accommodate India’s growing autonomy, or risk ceding influence in shaping the future global order.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
