Trump administration’s deepening of engagement with Pakistan and Bangladesh at first glance, may be dismissed as tactical manoeuvring; in reality, however, it reflects a calculated effort to recalibrate the US influence in the South Asian region. And to weaken India to the extent that the later never becomes a force to challenge American dominance in international geopolitics.
With Pakistan, the Trump administration’s dalliance started in May 2025 when Islamabad gave credit to the US President for the ceasefire with India. In contrast, New Delhi was firm in its rejection over any claim of the US intervention and consequent ceasefire between India and Pakistan after 4-days of conflict in May.
India was also not on the same page with Pakistan in nominating Trump for the Nobel peace prize. Thus, this orchestrated the US pivot towards Pakistan, a country which was hugely detested by Trump during his first presidential term. In 2018, he claimed that Islamabad had given Washington DC nothing but “lies and deceit.”
“We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorist that we are fighting…it is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and to peace.” Trump had said. But all this was past and Trump in his second term in the White House sees Pakistan as a more important strategic partner, rather than India, upon which he has imposed a 50% tariff—the steepest in the world.
Larger US gameplan in South Asia
On top of this, he has decided to impose a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceutical products. India is among a few countries which supply branded pharma products to the US. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, India supplied $9.2 billion worth of packaged medicaments to the US in 2023.
As India is taking note of Trump’s such punitive measures, the US’s imposition of $100,000 fee per H-1B visa is aimed at keeping Indian technologists away from the American shore. Experts say it should not surprise India if in coming days the Trump administration takes more anti-India measures, with an aim to emasculate the world’s fastest growing economic power.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s recent statement that the US will have to fix a bunch of countries, including India, is being interpreted as a warning of impending actions by the Trump administration against New Delhi.
With Pakistan, the Trump administration’s dalliance started in May 2025 when Islamabad gave credit to the US President for the ceasefire with India. In contrast, New Delhi was firm in its rejection over any claim of the US intervention and consequent ceasefire between India and Pakistan after 4-days of conflict in May
However, several American lawmakers and commentators have decried President Trump’s anti-India stance, stating “it will risk compromising decades of work under Republican and Democratic administrations that sought to build a durable US-India strategic relationship to serve, among other things, as a counterweight to a rising China.” David L Goldwyn and Geoffrey Pyatt said in their joint article for New Atlanticist of the US-based think tank Atlantic Council.
But Trump, a maverick who lacks a visionary’s outlook, is dead against reading or hearing voices of his fellow Americans, in his blind pursuit of hitting India hard. Instead, he has resorted to inflicting damage on India by engaging with Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Resurrection of Pakistan’s utility
Pakistan, India’s sworn enemy, is getting an opportunity from the Trump administration to be wooed and cajoled with twin objectives—first, for access to Pakistan’s strategic airbase (Chaklala or Noor Khan); in addition to the US plan to get back Bagram airbase in Afghanistan from the Taliban due to its strategic geographic location in Asia, as the base could be used for monitoring both India and China.
When Trump held his first luncheon meeting with Pakistan Army Chief, Asim Munir in the White House on June 18, nearly 38 days after Pakistan reached ceasefire with India on May 10, their discussion centred around Iran and India. This was disclosed by Trump himself before the media when he said that he and the Pakistan Army Chief “discussed Iran and also thanked Gen Munir for ending the war with India.”
A rough interpretation of this statement points to the US’s effort for a larger strategic recalibration in South Asia. If it is this understanding, India will have to be prepared for its impact. Yet, what is more alarming is that Islamabad is cosying up with the Trump administration which wants Pakistan’s support to target Iran that shares 909 km-long borders with the South Asian country.
A larger American plan to this effect can be seen in last week’s meeting between Trump and Pakistan PM, Shehbaz Sharif and the country’s Army Chief, Asim Munir in the White House. Since June, it was Trump’s third meeting with the Pakistan Army Chief. Speaking to the Press at the White House, Trump praised both Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Munir for supporting the US’s 20-point proposal aimed at ending war between Israel and Hamas.
“The Prime Minister and Field Marshal from Pakistan were with us from the beginning. They are incredible. They just put out a statement that they fully believe in this pact. They backed this 100% and are fully in support of this plan.” Trump said.
Besides Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, Türkiye, Egypt, and Indonesia have backed the US’s proposal. In their joint statement issued on September 30, foreign ministers of all these countries not only welcomed the proposal, but also praised Trump’s “leadership” and his “sincere efforts” to end the war in Gaza.
Several American lawmakers and commentators have decried President Trump’s anti-India stance, stating “it will risk compromising decades of work under Republican and Democratic administrations that sought to build a durable US-India strategic relationship to serve, among other things, as a counterweight to a rising China.” David L Goldwyn and Geoffrey Pyatt said in their joint article for New Atlanticist of the US-based think tank Atlantic Council
To commensurate with the Gaza plan, these countries, including Pakistan will send their troops to become a part of International Stabilisation Force (ISF). That means they will fight against Hamas if the group tries to incite violence and sabotage the Gaza plan, which is struggling for acceptance by Israel, even as the country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hesitatingly endorsed it.
Iran’s growing wariness with Pakistan
Iran has already maintained that it is against the Trump-led Gaza plan. Iranian media has said the US-led 20-point proposal will not bring a lasting peace in the region. Calling it as a “disaster plot” Tehran Times, Iran’s leading English language newspaper said, “The plan’s real aim is not reconciliation but the disarmament of Palestinian resistance groups. It is a ceasefire designed not to resolve the conflict but to reshape it in Israel’s favour, institutionalising control while stripping Palestinians of their only means of leverage.”
Iran which has supported the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence pact on September 17, calling it as a positive step for regional security, seems to be not amused by Islamabad’s endorsement of the Gaza plan either. Tehran Times has reported growing rift among Pakistani lawmakers over Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir’s support for the Gaza plan.
Iran is, in fact, also concerned about Pakistan, particularly, its growing proximity with the US, whose ties with Tehran have been marked with decades of hostility over its nuclear programme. This year on June 22, the US under ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ had launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Among strategic thinkers, there is an apprehension that if the US fails to secure Bagram airbase in Afghanistan, then it may ask Pakistan for a military base. Already rattled by the US’s agreement with Pakistan to develop oil reserves in Balochistan, Iran does not want an American presence in its backyard.
However, the US’s plan is to regain its feet in the region to keep an eye on Iran, China, and India. To gain back American interest and support for itself, Pakistan too, on its part, is willing to open its door for American investments. Last week, Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir presented Trump with a wooden box containing rare earth minerals during their meeting with the US President at the White House.
This presentation followed a $500 million MoU signed between Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) and the Missouri-based, US Strategic Metals to set up a poly-metallic refinery in Pakistan. The South Asian country has already invited American companies to invest in Pakistan’s agriculture, IT, mining, and energy sectors.
The US’s plan to regain its feet in the region is aimed at keeping an eye on Iran, China, and India. To gain back American interest and support for itself, Pakistan too, on its part, is willing to open its door for American investments. A $500 million MoU was recently signed between Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) and the Missouri-based, US Strategic Metals to set up a poly-metallic refinery in Pakistan. The South Asian country has already invited American companies to invest in Pakistan’s agriculture, IT, mining, and energy sectors
Earlier, in a major policy shift, the Trump administration authorised $397 million to Pakistan for maintaining its F-16 fighter jet fleet. This has been done even as Pakistan is known to have used American military hardware against India.
Bangladesh’s growing partnership with US
However, it is not only Pakistan but also Bangladesh that the US is using to entrench its position. It can be witnessed in expanding military cooperation between the two countries. On September 10, a contingent of 120 US military personnel arrived in Chattogram in Bangladesh to participate in a joint military exercise.
What surprised several experts was that the arrival of US military in Bangladesh took place nearly 38 days after armed forces of Bangladesh and the US concluded their weeklong military exercise Tiger Shark on August 2.
“This joint military exercise reaffirms our commitment to a safer, stronger, and more prosperous Indo-Pacific. It also symbolises the strong US-Bangladesh partnership.” US Chargé d’affaires in Bangladesh, Tracey Jacobson.
Bangladesh-US defence partnership received a fresh impetus after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League on August 5, 2024 and the installation of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus. It started with the visit of US Army’s Deputy Commanding General for Indo-Pacific Lieutenant General Joel Vowell to Bangladesh in March 2025.
In the background of reports that the US is planning to launch a proxy war in Myanmar by using Bangladesh as a base, India must be concerned about its impact in its northeast region. According to The Interpreter of Australia’s Lowy Institute, “a key feature of the US plan is the reported establishment of a “massive supply dump” in Bangladesh, to support military operations in Myanmar by insurgent groups such as the Arakan Army and Chin National Front.”
During the visit, as per the state-backed Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS), Lt Gen Vowell engaged in high-level discussions with senior officials of the Bangladesh armed forces, including Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz Zaman. Both sides explored Bangladesh’s primary military challenges and areas where the US could offer support. These activities have raised eyebrows in India as they may have implications beyond Bangladesh.
In the background of reports that the US is planning to launch a proxy war in Myanmar by using Bangladesh as a base, India must be concerned about its impact in its northeast region. According to The Interpreter of Australia’s Lowy Institute, “a key feature of the US plan is the reported establishment of a “massive supply dump” in Bangladesh, to support military operations in Myanmar by insurgent groups such as the Arakan Army and Chin National Front.”
The Interpreter, whose report is based on several articles and editorial comments published by dailies and news outlets in Myanmar and other countries, further said that at least three divisions of the Bangladesh Army are “preparing to support the US-backed operation, mainly through the provision of logistics, supplies and tactical support to anti-junta forces inside Myanmar.”
Significantly, these reports have not been challenged by either Bangladesh or the US so far. That means there is some meat in these reports and as such, it must be of concern to India because the area of operation will be the Bay of Bengal, The Interpreter analysed.
Overall, Trump administration’s South Asia plan is not simply about having new partnerships in the region, but about weakening India’s rise as a global power. By drawing Pakistan and Bangladesh closer into its orbit, the US under Trump is deliberately unsettling the regional balance in order to retain its primacy. Far from being a stabilising force, these moves risk reigniting old rivalries, creating new flashpoints, and drawing South Asia deeper into the vortex of great power politics.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
