India’s firm stand that the Quad’s agenda shouldn’t be changed and the kind of backing it received from Australia which is highly concerned about China’s activities in the Pacific, the informal group during its second-in person leader-level summit, committed to strengthen its position in the region. In fact, Quad leaders agreed to India’s forceful argument that a weak-kneed approach to threats emerging from China in the Indo-Pacific region would not work, and they would have to strengthen the Quad’s approach on vaccine distribution, strengthening of health infrastructure development, climate and maritime security.
Besides, it was India and Japan which took up the case of China’s aggressiveness that came in the way of peaceful activities of the littoral states of the Indo-Pacific region. China, in violation of sovereign claims of the Philippines, often moors hundreds of fishing vessels in Whitsun Reef, which falls within the Southeast Asian nation’s exclusive zone.
Through this activity, China serves its twin objectives. First, it undertakes fishing in the waters around Whitsun Reef and second, it helps in asserting its claim over the territory. Similarly, Vietnam, another Southeast Asian country, is facing trouble from China as it unilaterally imposes a ban on Hanoi from resorting to fishing in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Paracel Islands which are occupied by China, but also claimed by Vietnam.
Brunei, which initially remained silent on the violation of its sovereign claim on the Louisa Reef in the Spratly islands by China, has started coming out against it. The US’ assertive diplomacy in the Southeast Asian region and Quad’s reiteration of ASEAN’s centrality in its Indo-Pacific strategy, is said to have encouraged China’s neighbours to start flashing their anger against China.
Amidst this, it is hard to rule out the fact that the Quad leaders’ unanimous stand to improve their maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region, will further embolden Southeast Asian countries to stand against China’s aggression.
In this background, two major announcements by Quad members assumed high significance: One, on the rollout of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness and second, funding over $50 billion in the next five years in building infrastructure across the region.
Under the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, Quad members will support and work with the countries of the region for the development of information fusion centres in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. The initiative also includes, providing technology and training to the countries in their quest for peace, stability and prosperity in the region.
The initiative, however, enjoins Quad members to do what they could do in fully monitoring the waters on their shores—all this to curb intimidatory behaviour by China in the region. While reading the tea leaves, this measure is enough to state what is in the store for the Middle Kingdom which has increased its militaristic adventure in the Taiwan Strait.
There is an apprehension that once China captures Taiwan, it will become near impossible to bring stability in the region and ensure security for Japan itself. Japan’s 2021 White Paper on Defence, has categorically maintained that Taiwan is “important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community.” It described China-Taiwan tension as one requiring a “sense of crisis.”
On May 23, the US ambiguity over Taiwan came crashing down when President Joe Biden during a joint press conference with Japanese PM Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, said he would use military force to defend Taiwan if it were ever attacked by China.
This aspect is though not clearly embedded in the Quad Joint Leaders’ Statement, yet it signals in clear terms that India, Japan, the US and Australia will not brook “any coercive or unilateral actions” towards any country in the Indo-Pacific region. In the context of Quad declaration on funding over $50 billion in building infrastructure in the region, it is apparent that it aims at bolstering road, port and rail connectivity in the region.
Comparatively it pales into China’s oversized investment in the Belt and Road Initiative, still it is seen as the beginning of a plan which was in the pipeline since the Quad took its rebirth in 2017 on the sidelines of ASEAN meet in Manila. However, as regarding the Quad mode of investment in infrastructure building, it will be based on public-private partnership, which will be decided in the forthcoming Quad’s official level meeting. But the question is whether Quad’s infrastructure initiative is an extension of Australia, Japan and the US’ trilateral investment initiative launched in 2018 to help meet infrastructure needs in the Indo-Pacific. Clarity is awaited in this regard.
Then last year, the European Union too launched a $340 billion new Global Gateway Initiative to compete with the BRI. Some experts suggest that over the period of time Quad’s infrastructure initiative and the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative may work in tandem to compete with China’s BRI, which is facing backlash in number of countries from across Asia, Africa, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe due to corruptions, contractual disputes, lawsuits, bankruptcies, loan defaults and others. That Quad’s infrastructure initiative and the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative can work together in the future, can be assessed from the informal group leaders’ welcome of the EU’s Joint Communication on the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, announced in September 2021. The EU Strategy for Cooperation envisages the European Union’s deep engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Overall, this was the first of the total four Quad leaders’ meet (of which two were virtual) that saw all sides on one page on all regional and global issues. If there was condemnation of terrorist attacks, including 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks, emphasis was equally laid by Quad leaders on combating the financing of terrorism by all countries in consonance with FATF recommendation. North Korea’s ballistic missile development and deepening humanitarian crisis in Myanmar since the toppling of the democratically elected government in February last year—were on the table for discussion at the Quad summit in Tokyo. Russian invasion on Ukraine was taken up at the meeting, but in view of India’s position, the informal group leaders issued a joint statement without condemning Vladimir Putin.
However, while through Quad, political and strategic moves are seen being taken to counter China and its aggressive pushover in the Indo-Pacific, the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is considered as an economic tool to cut down China’s economic dominance in the region. Launched by US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Quad leaders’ summit, IPEF has been joined by India, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Brunei, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
In sum, whether the Tokyo meet of the Quad leaders remained successful or not, can be assessed when senior officials of the informal group meet in coming days to thrash out the implementational aspect of the group’s joint statement which is described by many experts as one full with constructive agenda.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
