Leaders of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) plus the newly induced BRICS members (Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE) held an emergency meeting virtually on November 21 under the presidency of South Africa) to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, whose calls for a ceasefire and stopping human rights violations in Gaza are ignored, also joined the virtual meet.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped the virtual BRICS meet because India has not asked Israel to cease operations and South Africa (holding current presidency of BRICS) along with Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros and Djibouti jointly approached the International Criminal Court on November 17 asking for war crimes probe of Israel in Palestinian territories.
Modi skipping the meeting signals a divide within BRICS which is not good but would be to the liking of America. What is the message India is sending? Does India want BRICS to condemn Palestinians? Are we ignoring the trade of BRICS nations, Arab countries and Iran? External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar represented India at the BRICS meet; but in a meeting meant for Heads of State, the message was implicit. Jaishankar said there was a “universal obligation to observe the international humanitarian law. We strongly condemn any death of civilians”, which is the American line but does not demand ceasefire.
As expected, the BRICS leaders joint statement at the emergency meeting called for: an immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce leading to a cessation of hostilities; importance of preventing further destabilisation in the region, including ensuring that the conflict does not spread further in the Middle East; all parties to exercise maximum restraint; condemned acts of violence aimed at Palestinian and Israeli civilians, immediate and unconditional release of all civilians being illegally held captive. Earlier in the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the organisation of an “international peace conference” to end the conflict while Russian President Vladimir Putin said the US has wrecked chances of peace in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, a Qatar-brokered hostage release truce appears getting closer. Details are not known but there is speculation some 50 hostages taken by Hamas could be released in exchange for a four-five day ceasefire in Gaza.
The US is appears more concerned about China hosting Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki and Secretary General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Hussein Brahim Taha for holding “in-depth communication and coordination” with Beijing “on ways to deescalate the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, protect civilians and seek a just settlement of the Palestinian question” as stated by China.
China will not make all the deliberations public since the discussions would also include American intentions to expand the Israel-Hamas war into a larger regional conflict for furthering its national interests. If the war was only between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah, where is the need for the massive US naval deployment in what is being called “Greater Middle East” from Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean into the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb, further into the Gulf of Aden and all the way into the Gulf of Oman?
Modi skipping the meeting signals a divide within BRICS which is not good but would be to the liking of America. What is the message India is sending? Does India want BRICS to condemn Palestinians? Are we ignoring the trade of BRICS nations, Arab countries and Iran?
The bloody war in Gaza rages on as is the Ukraine-style information-cum-disinformation campaign. Israel is showing video clips of hostages taken by Hamas in Al Shifa hospital but has also been bombing the same hospital along with others. WHO is appalled that Israel also attacked the Indonesian hospital in Gaza. The Red Cross has said no place in Gaza is safe for Palestinians.
Over 14,700 civilians have been killed in Gaza in Israeli attacks, according to Hamas. This includes over 5,500 children and 60 hostages Hamas took. Israel says 68 Israeli soldiers have died but a tweet on X cites Israeli journalists writing that Israeli soldiers killed and wounded is not less than 2,985 and 11,600 respectively. These figures may be exaggerated but fighting through built up areas and 500-km labyrinth of Hamas tunnels will likely extract a heavy toll on the IDF. This is perhaps why Israel’s offensive is more by way of bombings.
With regard to earlier reports that 1400 Israelis were killed in Hamas attacks on October 7. Tel Aviv newspaper Haaretz, citing police investigation, has said that an Israeli military helicopter that arrived on the scene of the Supernova rave fired at terrorists there apparently also hit some festival participants.
Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah locations in Lebanon. A recent development is the hijacking of the cargo ship ‘Galaxy Leader’ in the Red Sea by Yemen-based Houthi. The ship with 25 people on board was flying the flag of the Bahamas. Ownership details in the shipping database associates the ship’s owners with Ray Car Carriers, whose parent company belongs to Abraham “Rami” Ungar, one of the richest businessmen in Israel. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree says seizure of the ship was in response to “heinous acts against our Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank”.
The US intent also appears to be to somehow target Iran, as also Lebanon and Syria. Surely the US aircraft carriers and submarines in the region are not to support Israel fight Hamas-Hezbollah. The fact is that OPEC Plus controlling oil prices is not acceptable to America. To add to Washington’s dollar woes, Saudi Arabia and China have signed a currency swap agreement
US Carrier Battle Group (CBG) based on aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is presently sailing just outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman and is approaching the Persian Gulf. In addition, US naval build up in the Greater Middle East includes: another CBG based on USS Ford which recently moved away from Israel’s coast and is re-positioned to the south of Crete; three-ship Bataan Amphibious Ready Group with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and several guided-missile destroyers — USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall operating in the northern portion of the Red Sea; USS Mesa Verde in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the command ship USS Mount Whitney; multiple US attack submarines in the region; nuclear guided-missile submarine USS Florida was transiting to the east of Suez on November 5.
Yemen has always been in American crosshairs. But with the recent seizing of the cargo ship ‘Galaxy Leader’ coupled with Houthi firing away missiles at Israel, the US apparently wants to attack the Houthi in a big way. This is why the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) has issued an advisory that vessels travelling through approaches to Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea should keep maximum distance from Yemeni waters.
But this may not be all. The US intent also appears to be to somehow target Iran, as also Lebanon and Syria. Surely the US aircraft carriers and submarines in the region are not to support Israel fight Hamas-Hezbollah. The fact is that OPEC Plus controlling oil prices is not acceptable to America. To add to Washington’s dollar woes, Saudi Arabia and China have signed a currency swap agreement.
A serving US General once said, “I guess it’s like we don’t know what to do about terrorists, but we’ve got a good military and we can take down governments. I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail.” Notably, the US had decided in 2001 itself to “take out” Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran in the next five years.
An American attack on Yemen appears imminent but directly attacking Iran would have repercussions, given that both China and Russia would side with Iran. China has already said it would defend Iran, if attacked. Waging asymmetric war on Iran using proxies may be the preferred US option but its fallouts are unlikely to leave Israel and the US unscathed
However, American wars and plunder in the Middle East over the decades has resulted in Iran-Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations and Syria welcomed back into the Arab fold. Moreover, Russia and China are both with the Palestinian side and Russia has been holding parleys with Hamas. To top this, collective outreach of the Muslim countries to China as their principal interlocutor in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war would have made Washington sit up.
An American attack on Yemen appears imminent but directly attacking Iran would have repercussions, given that both China and Russia would side with Iran. China has already said it would defend Iran, if attacked. Waging asymmetric war on Iran using proxies may be the preferred US option but its fallouts are unlikely to leave Israel and the US unscathed.
A larger regional conflict in the Middle East will adversely affect the global economy, including India. But such an issue has never been of concern to the US. The Ukraine war has already raised America’s external debt by $3 trillion – from $30 trillion to $33 trillion. Adding another $3-5 trillion would not matter as the Congress will always allow the debt level to be raised, whichever the government.
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
