Former Prime Minister of India, the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee made an apt observation in global geopolitics, “You can change friends, but not neighbours.” The situation becomes all the more complicated when a country has to contend with unruly neighbours whose sole purpose is to undermine its very existence. However, in international politics, geopolitical practitioners, especially those belonging to the realist school of thought, argue that there are no permanent friends or foes. So, there is a need to reach out to both to practice the art of strategic autonomy. Further, realist scholars argue that in an asymmetrical relationship, one should be amenable to adaptation to ensure the balance of power.
This seems to be the case with Pakistan’s so-called ‘changed attitude’ towards India. Former Pakistani premier and Pakistan Muslim League (N) supremo Nawaz Sharif argued that Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan to attend a meeting of the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was a positive step in the right direction.
However, it would be completely naïve on the part of Pakistan to expect India to show more willingness in making an outreach simply because the latter thinks it suitable. A deeper analysis of Pakistan’s socio-economic conditions reveals Pakistan lacks bargaining power.
It would be completely naïve of Pakistan to expect India to show more willingness to reach out to it simply because it thinks it is a suitable time. A deeper analysis of Pakistan’s socio-economic conditions reveals that it lacks bargaining power
A sinking economy
The statistics show the glaring power asymmetry between the two countries. Pakistan’s economy is in the ICU, currently operating on ventilator support. Ordinary citizens are finding it increasingly difficult to eke out a living thanks to skyrocketed prices of daily commodities. To complicate matters further, Pakistan is under strict instructions from the IMF or International Monetary Fund if the country wants to continue getting access to its relief package to revive its tanking economy.
The Pakistani government had to cut back on expenses, reduce subsidies, and hike taxes in order to finance its IMF-dictated budgetary programme.
Inflation in the country is close to triple digits with many provinces reporting almost daily power outages. If this wasn’t just it, Pakistan has for all practical purposes turned into a colony of China. Being an ‘integral part’ of the China-sponsored BRI or Belt & Road Initiative whose part is the much-touted CPEC or China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Pakistan is the net loser. It owes close to $27 billion to the Chinese state.
The statistics show glaring power asymmetry between the two countries. Pakistan’s economy is in the ICU, operating on ventilator support. Due to skyrocketing prices of daily commodities, ordinary citizens are finding it difficult to make a living
Trouble at the borders
If economic troubles weren’t enough, Pakistan is experiencing challenges at its borders, both internally and externally. The most serious challenge emanates from its western border with Afghanistan i.e. the Durand Line. The Pakistani deep state, which provided all sorts of overt and covert assistance to the Taliban, was overjoyed with the Taliban returning to power in 2021. Pakistani hopes of gaining strategic depth in South Asia vis-à-vis India were belied when the Afghan Taliban refused to do their bidding.
Numerous border clashes coupled with the Pakistani state’s high-handed manner in dealing with the Afghan refugees resulting in immense suffering has resulted in a severe decline in bilateral ties.
To complicate matters, the TTP or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has declared war on the Pakistani state. It has been involved in carrying out terror strikes against army and government installations and civilian areas with a high casualty rate. The TTP has made it clear that it will not only not negotiate with the Pakistani state but will remain committed to transforming Pakistan into an Islamic state if ever comes to power.
Baloch insurgency is also making things difficult for the Pakistani government and the deep state. They have been instrumental in carrying out high-profile attacks against foreign targets, mainly Chinese engineers and citizens as a mark of protest against the CPEC, which is said to have not only encroached on their lands but the Balochis are also being deprived of their rightful claims as far as the economic gains of the CPEC is concerned.
With the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and now, the successful conclusion of the election and the formation of a new government in the Union Territory, it is clear that Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative has lost its gas
Foregone conclusion in Kashmir
The Pakistani fetish with Kashmir, particularly to liberate it from Indian hands, has become a dream of the past. With the abrogation of Article 370 on the one hand, and the successful conclusion of the election and the formation of a new government in J&K, it is clear that Pakistan is no longer in control of its so-called Kashmir narrative.
Kashmir is prospering. Statistics reveal Kashmiri tourism is making giant strides and the people of J&K are finally looking forward to a new future shorn of terrorism and militancy.
Hence, the former Pakistani premier’s assertion seems misplaced at best and romanticised at worst. While it is true that Pakistan as a neighbour is far too important to be neglected, it is also true that negotiations happen from a position of strength. India currently operates from that position of strength. If Pakistan desires to improve bilateral ties, it must do the heavy lifting and address the core issues afflicting the bilateral relationship.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
