The India-China relations, though webbed in complexity and distrust, is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. Both nations play a pivotal role in shaping the emerging multipolar world order and global stability. The contours of their relationship will contribute significantly to global security and economic prosperity.
However, the numerous complexities and contradictions marred with a lack of trust and historical baggage will need to be overcome through visionary leadership and astute diplomacy on both sides along with trust-building measures.
Thus, 2025 remains a pivotal year in determining the future course of bridging the divide or widening the rift between them. Their future lies in cooperation and not confrontation which requires a paradigm shift and taking initiatives by both. The 3D formula – disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction must lead to 3C strategy – confidence, cooperation, and collaboration for a more stable and prosperous region and the world.
A Legacy of Uncertainty and Strategic Adjustment
The relationship between India and China has traditionally been turbulent and described at best as a swaying pendulum. From 1950s onwards, both nations carved out their independent regional identities and aligned their national interest and international relations in response to the dynamic geopolitical landscape.
However, while India offered a democratic peaceful model, China preferred a hegemonic model. This clash of culture and ideology often led to confrontation of interest and competition resulting in regional rivalry. China’s repeated non-adherence to pacts or treaties along with disputed borders and collusion with Pakistan created a trust deficit. Yet, post-1962 both nations found ways to stabilise their relationship even amid deep-rooted differences, especially over territorial disputes
The military confrontation at Galwan Valley in 2020, and the subsequent standoff brought both nations to the brink of a war yet again. It was a reminder of the grim reality of the volatility that remains in India-China ties.
However, the eventual military disengagement, facilitated by way of political and astute diplomacy, demonstrated the strategic intent of preventing the situation from spiralling out of control. It also demonstrated that the existing military equation cannot assure victory for any side. This restraint and detente, although commendable, should not obscure the larger, more profound challenges facing the relationship in the years ahead.
The India-China relations, though webbed in complexity and distrust, is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. Both nations play a pivotal role in shaping the emerging multipolar world order and global stability
The Context of Multipolarity and Global Shifts
The world is seeing a transition to a multi-engagement world order shaped by competition to secure strategic influence with overlapping and often conflicting interests. While the debate is on a bipolar and multipolar world order, the truth seemingly is unfolding in multiple directions of multi-engagement.
A world order with new power blocks is emerging. Both China, as an emerging global power and India, as a rising regional power, have vested stakes in shaping it. Yet, both countries share a common vision of a more inclusive, non-Western-dominated international system. In this context, India and China are not just rivals, but potential partners in building a broader framework for a multipolar world.
This represents a departure from their historic competition, and a common destination of shared inclusive growth and development-oriented cooperation. In this sense, India and China have the opportunity to shape the international order that is more inclusive and less dominated by the exceptionalism and unilateralism of the West.
However, China’s authoritarian model and its expansionist overtures both on land and sea have challenged the peaceful democratic model of India. This is compounded by the unresolved disputed borders, which remains a potential flashpoint. Yet, both nations have made conscious efforts to stabilise ties both bilaterally and multilaterally via collaborative forums such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), for a shared vision of growth and stability.
2025 remains a pivotal year in determining the future course of bridging the divide or widening the rift between India and China
The Crisis of Globalisation and Shifting Economic Priorities
The present model of globalisation is defined by increasing protectionism, rising nationalism, and the fractured global supply chain controlled by the West and China. This has been a lesson of COVID-19 and its impact on the global economy.
India and China, as leading global economies and representatives of the developing world, have a shared responsibility to reform the global economic system to make it more inclusive and resilient.
China, with its large industrial capacity and technological prowess, is a key player in this new economic order. India’s continued reliance on Chinese imports, especially in key areas like electronics, telecommunications, infrastructure, and machinery, continues to be a strategic vulnerability.
In 2023, China and India built a strong trade relationship, with their trade hitting a record $136.2 billion. However, this growth conceals India’s trade imbalance with China and its vulnerabilities. This imbalance, driven by India’s reliance on Chinese industrial products and raw materials, has become a challenge meriting delinking and diversification.
While China and India have the potential for significant technology cooperation, India is increasingly cautious about China’s dominance in technology, especially in areas related to security.
India has started to shield its digital systems from Chinese impact by blocking apps such as TikTok and carefully checking Chinese investments in important sectors. As countries compete more fiercely to lead in fields like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G, India’s ties with the US and other countries aim to reduce its current reliance on China.
Despite their differences, adequate scope exists for India and China to collaborate in various areas without compromising national interests. These include alternate fuel development, climate change, geosciences, ocean technology, and public health.
India and China are both billion plus population countries and together the two countries are only next to the US in the GDP and would form a triangle of leading economies in the next two decades. While infrastructure is China’s key strength, India enjoys an advantage through its skilled labour. As the two largest economies by population, increased communication and collaboration between China and India could foster mutual benefits and drive economic growth for both nations.
While India offered a democratic peaceful model, China preferred a hegemonic model. This clash of culture and ideology often led to confrontation of interest and competition resulting in regional rivalry
The Path Forward: Cooperation or Rivalry?
As India and China navigate the complexities of the 2020s, they face a choice: to pursue a route of cooperation while managing competition for mutual shared benefit or to let competition lead to confrontation, rivalry, and distrust.
A strategic commitment to cooperation and managing peace from derailing could allow India and China to manage their differences, particularly on the border issue, and channel their collective efforts to shared economic growth and stability.
India and China stand to benefit from enhanced trade, investment, and technology exchanges, to modernise their economies, reduce dependencies on the West, and promote shared interests in areas like climate change, global health, technology transfer and multilateral trade.
Conversely, failure to resolve underlying tensions and rivalry could lead to increased competition and confrontation, not just in the military domain, but also in the economic and diplomatic arenas.
An adversarial relationship between the two countries would destabilise the region, invite foreign interference, and derail the larger goal of a multipolar global order. Such an outcome could have undesirable fallout for regional stability, where both countries are competing for influence.
India and China, as leading global economies and representatives of the developing world, have a shared responsibility to reform the global economic system to make it more inclusive and resilient
The Leadership Challenge for 2025
China and India both stand at a crucial phase of their respective modernisation endeavours, and development is now the biggest shared goal of both nations.
China is advancing on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernisation. India has also put forward the vision of a “Viksit Bharat 2047”. How they traverse this path overcoming irritants and challenges will decide their future
2025 marks a year that holds the opportunity to reset the India-China relationship with bold and innovative wisdom in a world beset by growing geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, and social upheaval.
While infrastructure is China’s key strength, India enjoys an advantage through its skilled labour. As the two largest economies by population, increased communication and collaboration between China and India could foster mutual benefits and drive economic growth for both nations
The political will and visionary leadership of both countries will be central to determining the trajectory of India-China relations in the coming years. The strategic choices are limited as do the opportunities shaping the future – cooperation or rivalry.
The strategic choice they make will decide their future: will they transcend their historical differences and bridge the divide or travel on a collision course that widens the rift?
The author, a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. He is also a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
