Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla recently dropped a bombshell when he suggested that drones will surpass traditional fighter jets which will become obsolete in future warfare.
“The future of warfare is going to be about drones, not fighter jets. Drones are going to be able to fly faster, farther, and more manoeuvrable than any fighter jet. They’re going to be able to carry more payload, and they’re going to be able to operate for longer periods without refuelling,” he suggested.
According to Musk, drones equipped with advanced AI systems will be able to overshadow and outperform traditional fighter jets in combat. Musk’s logic was simple – due to the recent advances in drone technology, particularly in the areas of autonomy, propulsion, and sensors –drones will be able to operate independently, without any need for human control and make split-second decisions based on advanced sensor data.
As expected, Musk’s prediction has sparked a lively debate about the future of warfare and whether or not drones will replace traditional fighter jets in combat.
Drones vs. Fighter Jets: A Comparison
Drones and fighter jets have distinct advantages and disadvantages:
Advantages of Drones:
- Drones can operate independently, without the need for human control.
- Drones can fly faster and are more manoeuvrable than traditional fighter jets.
- Drones can carry more payloads, including sensors, cameras, and missiles.
- Drones can operate for longer periods without refuelling.
Disadvantages of Drones:
- Drones are vulnerable to countermeasures, such as jamming and hacking.
- Drones have limited situational awareness and can prove to be less effective in complex combat environments.
Fighter jets on the other hand have the following advantages and disadvantages:
Advantages of Fighter Jets:
- Have advanced sensors and avionics, providing pilots with excellent situational awareness.
- Are controlled by human pilots who can make real-time decisions based on their training and experience.
- Fighter jets are time-tested with a long history of success and have proved their worth in various forms of combat.
Disadvantages of Fighter Jets:
- Fighter jets require human control, limiting their autonomy and flexibility.
- Fighter jets are vulnerable to surface-to-air missiles and other anti-aircraft systems.
Lessons learnt:
While drones have advantages in terms of autonomy, speed, and payload capacity, traditional fighter jets are combat-proven and have a distinct edge due to situational awareness, and human judgment. With rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and autonomous systems, the relationship between man and machine will increasingly become more complex but it is highly unlikely that traditional fighter jets will become obsolete and vanish from the skies of tomorrow.
This brings us to the question – can man and machine function without each other and whether human ingenuity and machine precision shape the future of air warfare?
Evolution of Air Warfare
To understand the future of air warfare, look deeper into its evolution. The early days of aerial combat were dominated by human pilots who often engaged in dogfights at close range flying elementary aircraft. The introduction of long-range precision-guided munitions (PGMs), and technological advancements like jet engines, radar, and missiles in the mid-20th century, extended the reach of air forces.
According to Elon Musk, drones equipped with advanced AI systems will be able to overshadow and outperform traditional fighter jets in combat. Musk’s logic was simple – drones will be able to operate independently, without any need for human control and make split-second decisions based on advanced sensor data
The development of UAVs, drones, and AI-driven systems in the 21st century, has added a new dimension to warfare where human operators are increasingly getting distanced from the battlefield – making combat more about strategy and technology than direct engagement. For instance, the UAVs made it possible to conduct surveillance, and launch strikes without the need for human pilots on board, while AI-powered systems made it easier to rapidly analyse vast amounts of data and make tactical decisions in split seconds – faster and more accurately than humans.
Role of Humans in Air Warfare
Despite the advances in technology and increasing capabilities of machines – nothing –either now or in future can replace the man behind the machine. Human involvement will remain indispensable in any format of warfare – on land, air or at sea. Humans bring essential qualities like adaptability, creativity, and judgment that machines cannot yet replicate in complex, and unpredictable combat situations.
Adaptability and Decision-Making
One of the most significant advantages humans bring to the table is their ability to adapt to rapidly changing situations. Air combat often requires split-second decisions based on incomplete or ambiguous information, particularly in hostile environments. Pilots can interpret the subtle signs of their surroundings, and adjust their strategy and tactics based on their experience and instincts.
AI systems can analyse large amounts of data and make decisions based on algorithms but lack the nuanced judgment that a human pilot possesses. For example, in a high-stakes combat situation where a decision is required to be made to strike a target or not, a human pilot can be expected to take into account ethical or moral considerations such as avoiding collateral damage – that go beyond pure tactical analysis.
Human Intuition and Creativity
The dynamic nature of air combat requires quick thinking, creativity, and the ability to adapt to rapidly evolving circumstances. Human pilots bring a level of creativity and intuition to air combat that machines cannot replicate. During combat pilots often think out of the box, and come up with unpredictable and unmapped strategic solutions that they haven’t been briefed, trained or programmed to deal with. For instance, during World War II, pilots resorted to unplanned manoeuvres to outsmart enemy aircraft in dogfights. Such split-second decisions are extremely valuable for survival and success in unexpected situations where the adversary employs unconventional tactics or new technologies. The pilot’s decision-making skills are even more critical in the face of unconventional tactics and new technologies when they are being attacked by hypersonic missiles or stealth aircraft.
Human pilots can develop innovative strategies to exploit the vulnerabilities of machine-based systems and take advantage of situations that AI cannot yet predict or handle. In combat scenarios, especially in multi-aircraft operations, a pilot may communicate rapidly with wingmen or other aircraft in the area and act in unison while responding to an enemy using swarm tactics or electronic warfare. An efficient and trained pilot can employ unconventional and unpredictable tactics to break radar locks or engage in psychological warfare by planting false signals to confuse the enemy. This ability to take calculated risks, think critically and make the right choices under pressure makes human pilots handle even the most unexpected threats and sets them apart as the ultimate battle-winning factor.
Human Control Over Autonomous Systems
Autonomous systems are increasingly becoming sophisticated in terms of air combat, surveillance, reconnaissance, and logistics. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), drones, and AI-powered systems have made it possible to operate in dangerous or contested environments with precision, and endurance. However, there are several key reasons why human oversight is necessary to ensure responsible, ethical, and effective use of technologies.
While AI and autonomous systems can process large amounts of data and execute predefined tasks, they cannot understand the ethical consequences of their actions – the way humans do. For instance, let’s consider a situation where an autonomous drone has been assigned to identify and target a threat. While the system can quickly gather data on target movement, speed, and location, it may not be able to fully assess the broader context, such as the presence of civilians nearby or the potential for collateral damage. On the other hand, a human operator can make decisions based on international humanitarian law (IHL) that cause minimum harm to non-combatants. Without human oversight, autonomous systems while being technically effective may violate ethical or legal norms.
The issue of accountability becomes more complex when autonomous systems play a greater role in combat. Who is responsible in case an autonomous drone attack results in civilian casualties? Is it the machine, the engineers who designed the system, the military commanders who sanctioned the operation, or the human operators who supervised the mission?
Many military strategists argue that although effective in certain tasks, machines should not be given complete control over life-and-death decisions in warfare. The final judgment based on ethical or humanitarian considerations should be left to humans. This raises critical questions about the level of autonomy that should be given to machines in air warfare.
Human control over UAVs, drones, and AI-driven weapons ensures that machines remain tools that enhance the effectiveness of human decision-making rather than replace it. Human involvement can be a safeguard against the unintended misuse of power by a technologically superior air force relying too heavily on AI in air warfare.
Role of Machines in Air Warfare
Machines are transforming air warfare, offering new possibilities that humans alone couldn’t even imagine or achieve so far. From unmanned drones to AI-driven fighter jets, machines are tilting the balance of power in modern conflicts and becoming more efficient, precise, and deadly.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
UAVs also referred to as drones are among the most visible machines in air combat. Small, inexpensive and incredibly effective “kamikaze” or “suicide drones” are providing new options for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, and intelligence gathering with minimal collateral damage and at a fraction of the cost of traditional aircraft and missiles. Even small, less resource-rich military forces can afford or quickly and unpredictably deploy large numbers of drones to overwhelm enemy defences or conduct complex missions without risking human lives.
The development of UAVs, drones, and AI-driven systems, has added a new dimension to warfare where human operators are increasingly distanced from the battlefield. The UAVs made it possible to conduct surveillance, and launch strikes, while AI-powered systems made it easier to analyse vast amounts of data and make tactical decisions in split seconds – faster and more accurately than humans
UAVs are now commonly being used for targeted strikes against high-value targets, such as enemy commanders, military infrastructure, and militants, particularly where conventional airstrikes or ground operations are too risky or challenging. UAVs have proved to be game-changers in conflict zones. Some examples of how militaries have used UAVs for targeted strikes in recent conflicts include the following:
- Russia has been using UAVs such as the Orlan-10 for intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeted strikes in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine. Russian drones like the Zala 421-16 have extensively been used to destroy Ukrainian ammunition depots, weapon supply routes, as well as artillery and anti-aircraft gun positions.
- The United States extensively used UAVs for targeted strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia to eliminate terrorist leaders, dismantle militant groups, and target insurgent strongholds. The US carried out multiple drone strikes to target key Taliban commanders and disrupt their operations.
- Pakistan has been using the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones for precision strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan’s North Waziristan area. One of these strikes led to the killing of Baitullah Mehsud a prominent Pakistani Taliban leader, in 2009.
- Israel has been relying on UAVs for intelligence gathering, surveillance and real-time tracking of high-value Hamas leaders. UAVs were used for targeted strikes against Hamas’s military facilities.
- Turkey has been extensively relying on domestically produced Bayraktar TB2 drones for targeted strikes against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian Kurdish groups such as the YPG in northern Iraq and Syria. Turkish drones have been used to eliminate senior PKK leaders like Zakir Sayi, Mustafa Karasua and several others. Apart from this, Turkish drones have been used to destroy weapons, and military infrastructure in Syria.
- UAVs operated by humans have also been used in the conflict zones in the Middle East to eliminate high-value targets with pinpoint accuracy from a safe distance reducing the risk to human life.
As UAV technology continues to advance it will reshape the future of warfare even further.
AI-Powered Combat Systems
The integration of AI to control drones or even piloted aircraft is another development that will determine how decisions are made based on radar signals and data about weather patterns, and battlefield conditions. AI can process large amounts of data to identify potential threats and formulate tactical responses far faster than humans in fractions of a second.
AI can also enable human pilots to engage in realistic simulations of combat scenarios allowing them to practice complex manoeuvres and decision-making processes without risking lives or aircraft. As AI continues to evolve, it may eventually be able to autonomously control entire fleets of aircraft, coordinating strategies and responding to threats in ways that humans cannot match.
Precision and Efficiency
Machines can bring precision and efficiency to air warfare. AI systems can make calculations and execute manoeuvres with incredible accuracy, minimizing the risk of mistakes. For instance, precision-guided munitions (PGMs) can accurately hit targets without constant human intervention, allowing machines to carry out complex tasks with minimal risk to personnel. This can change the nature of air combat, where a single error can have devastating consequences.
In addition to precision, machines can operate for extended periods without taking rest, unlike human pilots, who have endurance limitations. This means continuous 24×7 surveillance, intelligence gathering, and even strike missions to put constant pressure on the enemies.
Risks of Fully Autonomous Machines
The idea of fully autonomous machines seems appealing but has its risks. A machine-controlled system may be faster and more efficient, but the possibility of machines misinterpreting signals, targeting the wrong individuals, or carrying out unintended strikes too cannot be ignored. There’s also the question of accountability: who would be held responsible in case of an accident or error if an autonomous drone kills innocent civilians?
Fully autonomous systems may work well in controlled conditions, but in crisis or chaotic situations—such as combat there is a need to have a human in the decision-making loop because even AI cannot replicate human feelings, reasoning, and emotional intelligence.
Can Man and Machines Function Without Each Other?
This leads us to the question: can humans and machines operate independently or is their collaboration essential?
The answer is likely to be a blend of both. The future of air combat is likely to be a synergistic relationship between human pilots and machine systems – each complementing the other’s strengths.
Despite the advances in technology and increasing capabilities of machines – nothing –either now or in future can replace the man behind the machine. Human involvement is and will remain indispensable in any format of warfare on land, air or sea. Humans bring essential qualities like adaptability, creativity, and judgment that machines cannot yet replicate in complex, and unpredictable combat situations
Human-Machine Collaboration
In the most plausible future scenario, humans and machines will work together in tandem, with humans making strategic decisions and machines executing specific tasks. Humans will provide oversight, creativity, and judgment, while machines will provide precision, efficiency, and the ability to operate in hazardous environments. This collaboration will enhance the capabilities of both human operators and machine systems, allowing air forces to achieve greater success than either could independently.
For example, in a future conflict, a human pilot may command a fleet of UAVs or drones, using AI to assist in decision-making. The pilot would make the final call on whether to strike a target, while the AI would analyse data and suggest optimal strategies. In this model, machines enhance human decision-making but are not in full control, ensuring that human values and ethics are preserved.
One of the most talked-about developments is the “loyal wingman” drone, where drones will accompany fighter jets on missions, supporting them with surveillance, jamming, and offensive strikes. The drone would act as a force multiplier, either by expanding the reach of the jet or taking on high-risk roles while the pilot focuses on more complex tasks.
Conclusion
The future of air warfare is one of collaboration, not competition, between humans and machines. While AI, UAVs, and autonomous systems offer numerous advantages, they cannot fully replace the creativity, adaptability, and ethical judgment that humans bring to the table. In the coming years, air forces will likely continue to integrate machine intelligence into their operations, but humans will remain essential for oversight, decision-making, and ensuring that warfare adheres to moral and legal standards.
Ultimately, the future of air warfare will be defined by the synergy between human ingenuity and machine precision. While it’s possible that machines could take on more responsibility in certain areas, such as surveillance or precision strikes, the importance of human judgment and oversight will ensure that both humans and machines remain integral to the future of air combat. The question is not whether humans and machines can do without each other, but how they can best complement each other to achieve success in an increasingly complex and dangerous world.
–The writer is a seasoned media professional with over three decades of experience in print, electronic, and web media. He is presently Editor of Taazakhabar News. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
