It could be none other than Ukraine and its current political leadership, which will have to navigate its way out of over three-year long war with Russia. This message is becoming louder and clearer to Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the US ordered halting the supply of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine following the shocking verbal duel between the Ukrainian President and President Trump in the White House a few days ago.
However, following the Trump administration’s decision, it does not mean that the Ukrainian military will not be able to fight the Russian might for even a single day. Ukraine will, in fact, give a good fight to Russia on the battlefield for three to four months. And, if European countries really put up their back behind Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian military could prolong the war.
No Sign of Ceasefire Between Ukraine and Russia
But then, there is a catch: chances of Ukraine-Russia war snowballing into a major conflagration, with catastrophic global impact cannot be ruled out. It can be seen in Moscow’s intensified attacks on Ukraine. Since President Trump’s announcement of freezing aid to Ukraine, Russia has stepped-up attacks on the East European country. In the past four days, Moscow twice used powerful cruise and ballistic missiles to pound Ukraine.
On March 5, the day, French President Emmanuel Macron during televised address to the nation, described Russia as a “threat to France and Europe” Ukraine witnessed at least 20 people being killed as Russian strikes hit several regions in Ukraine, including Donetsk and Kharkiv.
Following this attack, the US President who blew hot and cold on Zelenskyy during their meeting in the White House, threatened large-scale “banking sanctions, sanctions, and tariffs” on Russia, should it not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. But on March 8, Russia again attacked Ukraine, killing at least 25 people, including six children.
These developments have led to triggering unpredictable situations across Europe. And, given this, the Ukrainian President is required to move cautiously while playing his pawns on the political chessboard surrounding his country’s ongoing war with Russia.
As what matters more on the battlefield is the uninterrupted flow of financial and military resources and Kiev knows it well, that no matter how hard Ukraine’s allies from Europe may try to provide financial or military aid to Kiev, it would not be able to bring any tangible result on the ground without America’s support.
Following the Trump administration’s decision, it does not mean that the Ukrainian military will not be able to fight the Russian might for even a single day. Ukraine will, in fact, give a good fight to Russia on the battlefield for three to four months
Importance of US for Ukraine
In fact, since the war erupted between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022, the US has been on the forefront in providing aid to Kiev. According to the Kiel Institute, a German-based think tank tracking support being given to Ukraine, the US spent $119.7 billion on aid to Ukraine between January 2022 and December 2024.
The second highest provider of aid to Ukraine has been Germany; it has given $13 billion. But according to the Kiel Institute, Europe combined has spent more money than the US on Ukraine. As per Kiel, between January 24, 2022 and end-2024, Europe, as a whole, spent $138.7 billion on Ukraine. However, data shown by the US Department of State maintained that it spent $182.8 billion on defence of Ukraine, which included military training and replenishment of US defence stocks.
The Ukrainian President has himself accepted, during an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan in February this year, importance of the US in the ongoing war with Russia. Speaking about Ukraine’s capability on arms’ production, Zelenskyy said 30% of weapons came from the US while 40% of them are produced indigenously. “You can imagine what would happen to us without this crucial 30%,” the Ukrainian President said.
It is this ground reality, which has compelled Zelenskyy to undertake a course correction and do what suits his country’s interest. Ukraine is “ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership” to negotiate a peace deal and ready to sign a minerals deal, said Zelenskyy.
Developments have led to triggering unpredictable situations across Europe. And, given this, the Ukrainian President is required to move cautiously while playing his pawns on the political chessboard surrounding his country’s ongoing war with Russia
Campaign to Remove Zelenskyy
In the current situation of flux, when US President Trump has announced freezing support to Ukraine and Europe is trying to ramp up its plan to protect the continent from Russian aggression, Zelenskyy would like to see that his country’s interest remains intact.
For the moment, however, the US appears to be using all means at its disposal to deal with Ukraine; it is planning to replace Zelenskyy with someone who would be acceptable to the Trump administration. If Politico, a US-based news outlet, is to be believed, four senior members of the Republican Party have held secret talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and other leaders of the country. Their discussion centred on how quickly Ukraine held presidential elections, which have been delayed because the country remains under martial law due to the ongoing war.
The US administration believes peace could be brought in Ukraine, only when Zelenskyy no longer remains the country’s President. But critics of President Trump say that by removing Zelenskyy, the US will only strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as the Russian President too wants the 47-year-old Ukrainian leader to be replaced. Already, among Russians, there is a feeling that as long as Zelenskyy remains at the top position in Ukraine, peace talks would be a far cry.
The Ukrainian President has himself accepted, during an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan in February this year, importance of the US in the ongoing war with Russia. Speaking about Ukraine’s capability on arms’ production, Zelenskyy said 30% of weapons came from the US while 40% of them are produced indigenously
Ukrainians and EU Back Zelenskyy
A recent opinion survey has shown that Zelenskyy’s approval rating is above 50%, indicating unequivocally about Ukrainians’ support for the 47-year-old leader who is seen as someone who is not going to accept anything that hurts Ukraine and its sovereign interests.
Ukraine’s allies from Europe also have a solid backing for Zelenskyy. They want Zelenskyy to remain at the helm of Ukraine’s affairs, rather than bringing chaos to their plan to fight off Russia, which they fear could surface once the 47-year-old leader is replaced with someone who is weak, indecisive, and incompetent.
However, while supporting Zelenskyy, Europe, distressed by the US’s recalcitrant approach towards Ukraine and the continent, has decided to shoulder responsibility of protecting itself on its own. The EU leaders, backed by UK, France, Germany and others have drawn a plan to spend more than $680 billion on Europe’s defence.
A move towards this was taken during the EU leaders’ emergency meeting in Brussels on March 6. Overall, giving protection to Europe, especially the EU’s eastern border, was decided as the priority of the 27-member European countries’ bloc, as it also drafted a plan to increase their investments in defence, particularly in areas like air defence, missiles, drone and anti-drone systems, artificial intelligence and more. This emergency meeting was also attended by Zelenskyy,
The US appears to be using all means at its disposal to deal with Ukraine; it is planning to replace Zelenskyy with someone who would be acceptable to the Trump administration. But critics of President Trump say that by removing Zelenskyy, the US will only strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as the Russian President too wants the 47-year-old Ukrainian leader to be replaced
Granting EU Membership to Ukraine
Showing their solidarity with Ukraine, all EU members in that emergency meeting in Brussels discussed granting EU membership to the beleaguered East European nation. However, because of Hungary’s reservation on the membership issue, the joint declaration issued after the emergency meeting in Brussels, stopped short of committing anything related to granting of the EU membership to Ukraine.
As per the EU rule, consensus is an essential necessity to arrive at any major decision within the 27-nation bloc. In view of this, a way out of the Hungarian resistance over Ukraine’s membership is being thought out by the rest of EU members. To push forward the EU’s support for Kiev, there is a plan to form a “coalition of the willing” to avoid Hungary’s veto on Ukraine. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the EU’s most Russia-friendly leader and he wants the EU to open direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine. But the EU members have rejected the Hungarian Prime Minister’s plan.
The path before Ukraine is either to push for a truce with Russia or continue fighting till Russians are moved out of the aggressed country’s territory. While driving Russians out of the Ukrainian territory appears to be difficult, given the US withdrawal of support to Kiev, the East European nation will have to follow a plan that could result in Ukraine and Russia sitting together, to end the war
Nonetheless, the path before Ukraine is either to push for a truce with Russia or continue fighting till Russians are moved out of the aggressed country’s territory. While driving Russians out of the Ukrainian territory appears to be difficult, given the US withdrawal of support to Kiev, the East European nation will have to follow a plan that could result in Ukraine and Russia sitting together, to end the war.
It is not certain how quick this may happen in view of the trust deficit between the two countries. But given sharp changes in geopolitics, which have occurred due to President Trump’s unpredictable approach on Russia-Ukraine war, which instead of resolving the ongoing bloody conflict in Eastern Europe, it is chaos which appears to have taken a roll across the continent.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
