The Agenda: South Africa is scheduled to host the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg from the 22nd to the 24th of August. This summit assumes significance as it will be the first in-person BRICS summit post-global pandemic. BRICS, an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, represents all major developing countries. The summit is expected to bring together the leadership of all the participating members. South Africa as host has extended an invite to all members of the African Union (AU), Bolivia and Bangladesh among others taking the tally of observers to almost 70. Invitations have been sent to 67 leaders from across Africa, Asia, and Latin America as well as to the Secretary General of the UN, Chairperson of the AU and President of the BRICS’s own New Development Bank.
The invite itself reflects the host country’s desire to further boost South Africa’s place among AU states and showcase this marquee event as a mega success. The chosen theme – ‘BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism’ aptly sums up this initiative. AU itself has charted an encouraging developmental programme termed Agenda 2063 aiming to transform Arica from a low-income and underdeveloped continent to a progressively developing society. South Africa as a key AU member is well placed to play a role in integrating the BRICS and AU’s developmental programme. Bringing in countries like Bangladesh and Bolivia as observers and potential future members of the BRICS+ format is also an indication towards the desire of BRICS to absorb more potential partners.
Global Interest
The grouping was formed in 2009 and with the inclusion of South Africa in 2010 as a full member it emerged in its new avatar as BRICS. BRICS was envisaged as a meeting ground for the world’s major developing economies, to offer a collective voice to nations driving global demand and supply. Each member is an economic heavyweight and holds considerable value in trading terms. Moreover, BRICS countries also represent the voices of their respective continents of Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe, a rare democratic representation on the global platform. Amid the plethora of regional groupings, BRICS stands out as a global giant in terms of its size and magnitude. It is home to the world’s 3.5 billion consumers and 23 per cent of global GDP. It’s more representative of current times, better reflecting prevailing realities and the world order.
As a group, it commands the world’s 26 per cent of global trade and 40 per cent of economic heft, where decisions are taken by consensus and till now each member enjoyed a strong independent say in the grouping’s affairs. It’s indicative of the bloc’s success that around 20 countries are willing to join including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina and more. However, the questions on expansion will not be easy ones. The danger of it becoming a disjointed enlarged glitzy association, where decisions are hard to come by will test the BRICS resolve. The consensus being an integral charter and probably the strongest part of the success of BRICS, it is felt that it would itself become its biggest hurdle the moment expansions are resorted to.
Difficult Path
BRICS is looking forward to an integrated and inclusive growth of member states, it is also keeping an eye on global economic recovery and acting as an engine for sustainable growth. While expressing South Africa’s readiness to host the much-anticipated summit, President Cyril Ramaphosa would also be knowing it will be very challenging to bring competing interests on a common platform. BRICS is currently facing a multitude of challenges both internally and externally. Major internal challenges are the resistance and push on the question of expansion, coordination within divergent political systems from democratic to authoritarian, management of mutual trust deficit & competing trade interests among members. Externally, the majority of BRICS leadership is under immense pressure to not let this mega grouping appear as a political voice for Russia & China or be seen as a counterweight to G7.
The question of the summit itself came under heavy clouds as soon as in-person attendance was announced by South Africa. The West was especially not happy to see the Russian President gains incredible photo ops during this high-profile summit. It has to take recourse of reminding the host of an existing arrest warrant against the Russian President. An issue which has questionable merit and is fuelled by political symbolism. War doesn’t answer issues of morality, it evolves on perception, one disaster fuelling the next. If not answered politically, it will bring an unending cycle of violence often causing innocent casualties. There’s a message for the Western powers, the lack of photo ops and presence of Russian leadership is unlikely to diminish the Russian voice, and unfortunately, it will prove counterproductive with much of BRICS coverage bringing Russian leadership into the discussion. The West doesn’t hold enough morality or the heft to ensure Russia is shunned from all international forums. This brings us back to the original question of morality and intent. The continuation of the Ukraine conflict and a complete absence of efforts to defuse the situation from Western leadership puts their intent under question mark.
India as Centre of Gravity
BRICS undoubtedly has been gaining graduated prominence since its formation. The idea of BRICS to act as a financial cushion for major developing nations during the financial crisis in 2008 has had a positive impact on its members. But the time BRICS was envisaged and the moment we are living in now appears to be from two different centuries. There has been a sea change in the challenges the world is faced with. If the financial crisis was the overwhelming concern then, now it’s the fear of disruption in the global supply chain. While the world appears to be torn apart in two distinct blocks on the Ukraine conflict, the majority of middle powers are still working to prevent a showdown on ‘we or them’ choices.
India as a founding member and a major emerging power has a rather delicate role now. It understands the potential of BRICS to emerge as a strong response to G7 but India is also concerned about Chinese ambitions, turning BRICS into another China-led & China-guided grouping something that is experienced by the SCO. India wants BRICS to effectively harness the aspirations of major developing economies but also holds concerns about the competing mutual interests of members, many of them are rivals in emerging markets. India is worried about the ongoing economic and political turmoil in Russia & Brazil, a hugely distinct policy mechanism in member countries from democracy to autocracy and depleting security dynamics with China, a major participant. These issues are hurting BRICS growth and preventing major joint economic initiatives. BRICS detractors would undoubtedly be feasting over such issues. But given India’s diplomatic astuteness and growing economic aspirations, India will likely emerge as the centre of gravity for BRICS a meeting point on divergent views. India has the muscles to shoulder this tremendous churning and the BRICS would need every bit of this stabilising strength in its volatile journey ahead!
-The writer has varied experience in security paradigm and is a keen follower of international geopolitics. His work has been routinely featured in national publications and newspapers. His articles can be viewed on the popular blog site newsanalytics.co.in on geo-strategic affairs. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
