Will Russia ever invade Ukraine?

There is no let-up in tension over Ukraine as neither Russia nor the US is ready to blink first and allow ice to melt over the issue which has potential to explode into a full-fledged war if provocation from both sides continues unabated. France and Germany are trying to diffuse the situation through talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet the crux of Moscow’s decision to amass more than 100,000 troops in the area bordering Ukraine lies in stopping the expansion of NATO.

By Shankar Kumar

Editor Opinion

US President Joe Biden and European countries’ leaders fear Russia may invade Ukraine. Some fear that this invasion may take place most probably after the Beijing Winter Olympic Games are over. To counter it, the US and its allies have sent their troops in East Europe.

 

However, Russia has denied it wants to invade Ukraine. It says it wants a pledge from Ukraine that it will never join NATO and that Russia’s interest will not be harmed. It is against NATO expansion near its borders. Amidst this development, Russia has managed to win China’s support.

Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 4 and issued a joint statement in which both sides have opposed “further enlargement of NATO.” They have also called on NATO “to abandon its ideologised cold war approaches” and “to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries.”

 

Russia and China have, in their joint statement, also expressed opposition to the formation of Quad and AUKUS. Both sides “stand against the formation of closed bloc structure and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region and remain highly vigilant about the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy on peace and stability in the region,” read the joint statement, which is seen as Russia and China’s push back against NATO’s expansion in East Europe and the US move in the Indo-Pacific region.

India is circumspectly watching this development. On January 31, it abstained from voting at the UNSC ahead of a meeting to discuss the situation over Ukraine which is facing more than one 100,000 Russian troops, tanks, artillery and missiles near its borders.

 
India is circumspectly watching this development. On January 31, it abstained from voting at the UNSC ahead of a meeting to discuss the situation over Ukraine which is facing more than one 100,000 Russian troops, tanks, artillery and missiles near its borders

Even as India’s absence from voting on the discussion over Ukraine didn’t impact the procedure, it stunned the US and its close allies. However, on the face value, the US continues to say that its relationship with India stands on its own merit and it has not been impacted because of the tension with Russia over Ukraine, but in reality, India’s absence at the UNSC, has not been taken well by the US.

Those who are familiar with this development maintain that if India doesn’t side with Russia, even after knowing it fairly well that Moscow’s approach towards Kyiv is aggressive and detrimental for international peace, Delhi will be a loser at the geo-political level. In politics and diplomacy, perception matters and this was the key reason why India preferred to play adroitly its game on the Ukraine issue at the UNSC, say some experts.

India is very conscious of the fact that China has amassed 50,000 to 60,000 troops on the Line of Actual Control and despite several rounds of military and diplomatic-level talks between the two sides, friction remains over Hot Springs, Demchok and restoration of patrolling rights at the Depsang Bulge. Then a new headache has emerged in the ongoing tension between India and China. The PLA is building a bridge across the Pangong Tso, within the territory that remains under China’s illegal occupation since 1958. This is part of China’s overall infrastructure build up on its side of the LAC.

China wants friction between New Delhi and Moscow as it will suit its strategy to mount a militaristic attack on India

In this background, India would think several times before taking any drastic measure at the geopolitical and geostrategic levels. With each day passing, tension over Ukraine is building up and India in all seriousness wants the issue to be resolved peacefully and through talks. “We have called for constructive political efforts to address the concerns of all sides and resolve the situation peacefully,” Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said during a weekly media briefing on February 3.

China wants friction between New Delhi and Moscow as it will suit its strategy to mount a militaristic attack on India. Chinese President Xi Jinping who will claim third five-year term in office during the forthcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, is itching his hands to take revenge for the Galwan Valley incident when the PLA had lost more than 40 soldiers in comparison to India’s 20 troops in hand-to-hand clashes on June 15, 2020.

To save itself from public shaming, China officially declared that only 4 PLA troops were killed in the fight against Indian soldiers in the eastern Ladakh. But the truth on the number of Galvan Valley casualties can no longer be hidden. Already, an Australian news outlet has exposed in detail how 42 Chinese soldiers died during the 2020 Galwan Valley fracas—38 by drawing in the River and 4 in clashes.  All international media flashed this news story published by Australia’s The Klaxon.

For China, nothing could be more embarrassing than the fact that the story has appeared when it is organizing the Winter Olympic Games. Therefore, the Chinese President looks for an opportunity to teach India a lesson. But so far as Russia, a powerful UNSC member, is closely tied up with India-diplomatically, strategically and militarily, China would only fume and fret and wage psychological war against India.

Overall, Ukraine has offered India a tough chance for a diplomatic rope walk: A single casual move may throw it into the deep morass of problem. This is the reason why it has kept even the US, which has emerged as India’s global strategic partner with two-way trade over US $145 billion in 2021, at bay on the issue of the eastern European country

Overall, Ukraine has offered India a tough chance for a diplomatic rope walk: A single casual move may throw it into the deep morass of problem. This is the reason why it has kept even the US, which has emerged as India’s global strategic partner with two-way trade over US $145 billion in 2021, at bay on the issue of the eastern European country. There are media reports that US President Joe Biden has requested India to provide liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

Officially, India has denied that it has ever met with such requests from the US, it is clear that Delhi will avoid doing anything that would create a suspicion about it in the minds of Kremlin officials.  However, as the Ukraine issue is taking the US-Russia relations in a bind, it may figure along with security across the Indo-Pacific during the forthcoming Quad ministerial meeting in Australia. Yet, the large question is: What measures US and its European allies will adopt against Russia if it invades Ukraine? A counter military action by the US and its NATO allies against Russia will flare up into a full-fledged war. Will the world afford such war, which may in all probability, turn into catastrophic?

-The author is senior journalist and commentator on foreign affairs. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda.